Rapid Variations of Earth’s Core Magnetic Field

Evidence of fast variations in the Earth’s core field are seen both in magnetic observatory and satellite records. We present here how they have been identified at the Earth’s surface from ground-based observatory records and how their spatio-temporal structure is now characterised by satellite data. It is shown how their properties at the core mantle boundary are extracted through localised and global modelling processes, paying particular attention to their time scales. Finally are listed possible types of waves in the liquid outer core, together with their main properties, that may give rise to these observed fast variations.

Quarantine and testing strategies to reduce transmission risk from imported SARS-CoV-2 infections: a global modelling study

Background Many countries require incoming air travellers to quarantine on arrival and/or undergo testing to limit importation of SARS-CoV-2. Methods We developed mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 viral load trajectories over the course of infection to assess the effectiveness of quarantine and testing strategies. We consider the use of Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) and lateral flow testing (LFT) both pre-flight, to reduce the number of infectious arrivals and when exiting quarantine, and daily testing of arrivals with LFTs. We also estimate the effect of each strategy relative to domestic incidence, and limits of achievable risk reduction, for 99 countries where flight data and case numbers are estimated. Results We find that immediately pre-flight LFTs are more effective than PCR tests 3 days before departure in decreasing the number of departing infectious travellers. Pre-flight LFTs and post-flight quarantines, with tests to release, may prevent the majority of transmission from infectious arrivals while reducing the required duration of quarantine; a pre-flight LFT followed by 5 days in quarantine with a test to release would reduce the expected number of secondary cases generated by an infected traveller compared to symptomatic self-isolation alone, Rs, by 85% (95% UI: 74%, 96%) for PCR and 85% (95% UI: 70%, 96%) for LFT, even assuming imperfect adherence to quarantine (28% of individuals) and self-isolation following a positive test (86%). Under the same adherence assumptions, 5 days of daily LFT testing would reduce Rs by 91% (95% UI: 75%, 98%). Conclusions Strategies aimed at reducing the risk of imported cases should be considered with respect to: domestic incidence, transmission, and susceptibility; measures in place to support quarantining travellers; and incidence of new variants of concern in travellers' origin countries. Daily testing with LFTs for 5 days is comparable to 5 days of quarantine with a test on exit or 14 days with no test.

Global modelling of plastic beaching indicates coastlines and coastal waters as significant plastic reservoirs

<p>The distribution of plastic in the ocean is poorly constrained, with the mass of floating plastic at the ocean surface being orders of magnitude smaller than estimated plastic inputs. Coastlines likely contain significant amounts of plastic, but inconsistent methodologies between beached plastic observations prevent determining the mass and distribution of globally beached plastic. We present Lagrangian model sensitivity experiments to estimate the beached fraction of marine plastic and to investigate the global distribution of beached plastic on coastlines.</p><p>We perform simulations where particles, representing masses of floating plastic, are inserted at the ocean coasts. The particles are then advected by surface currents (HYCOM/NCODA global reanalysis and surface Stokes drift from the WaveWatch III global reanalysis) for 5 years. Beaching is parametrized stochastically using exponentional probability. Here, we test the sensitivity to e-folding time scales between 1 and 100 days, applied when plastic is within the coastal zone, within 10km of the nearest coastline. Resuspension of beached plastic is parameterised exponentially with an e-folding timescale between 69 and 273 days. No other loss processes are implemented.</p><p>Between 39-95% of floating plastic mass is beached after 5 years, with the beached fraction depending on the ratio between the beaching and resuspension timescales. In all simulations, at least 77% of floating plastic mass is found either beached or within the coastal zone, indicating coastal regions are a significant reservoir of mismanaged terrestrial plastic. However, plastic entering the ocean from islands or near energetic boundary currents is more likely to reach the open ocean. The distribution of beached plastic is closely related to the input distribution, with the highest concentrations found in Southeast Asia and the Mediterranean.</p><p>Our results highlight coastlines and coastal waters as important reservoirs of marine plastic debris and indicate a need for greater understanding of plastic transport near and at the coastlines. Furthermore, improved representation of plastic beaching can help study marine plastic fragmentation, as mechanical stress during the transitions between coastlines and coastal waters and the increased UV exposure of beached plastic likely contribute to the fragmentation.</p>

Introducing a nested multimedia fate and transport model for organic contaminants (NEM)

Nesting allows a new global modelling tool to combine computational efficiency with the fine spatial resolution required for many applications.

An eclipsing M-dwarf close to the hydrogen burning limit from NGTS

ABSTRACT We present the discovery of NGTS J0930−18, an extreme mass ratio eclipsing M-dwarf binary system with an early M-dwarf primary and a late M-dwarf secondary close to the hydrogen burning limit. Global modelling of photometry and radial velocities reveals that the secondary component (NGTS J0930−18 B) has a mass of M* = $0.0818 ^{+0.0040}_{-0.0015}$ M⊙ and radius of R* = $0.1059 ^{+0.0023}_{-0.0021}$ R⊙, making it one of the lowest mass stars with direct mass and radius measurements. With a mass ratio of q = $0.1407 ^{+0.0065}_{-0.017}$, NGTS J0930−18 has the lowest mass ratio of any known eclipsing M-dwarf binary system, posing interesting questions for binary star formation and evolution models. The mass and radius of NGTS J0930−18 B is broadly consistent with stellar evolutionary models. NGTS J0930−18 B lies in the sparsely populated mass radius parameter space close to the substellar boundary. Precise measurements of masses and radii from single lined eclipsing binary systems of this type are vital for constraining the uncertainty in the mass–radius relationship – of importance due to the growing number of terrestrial planets being discovered around low-mass stars.