Performance of 2020 Real-Time Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts from High-Resolution Global-Nested Hurricane Models: HAFS-globalnest and GFDL T-SHiELD

The global-nested Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS-globalnest) is one piece of NOAA’s Unified Forecast System (UFS) application for hurricanes. In this study, results are analyzed from 2020 real-time forecasts by HAFS-globalnest and a similar global-nested model, the Tropical Atlantic version of GFDL’s System for High-resolution prediction on Earth- to- Local Domains (T-SHiELD). HAFS-globalnest produced the highest track forecast skill compared to several operational and experimental models, while T-SHiELD showed promising track skill as well. The intensity forecasts from HAFS-globalnest generally had a positive bias at longer lead times primarily due to the lack of ocean coupling, while T-SHiELD had a much smaller intensity bias particularly at longer forecast lead times. With the introduction of a modified planetary boundary layer scheme and an increased number of vertical levels, particularly in the boundary layer, HAFS forecasts of storm size had a smaller positive bias than occurred in the 2019 version of HAFS-globalnest. Despite track forecasts that were comparable to the operational GFS and HWRF, both HAFS-globalnest and T-SHiELD suffered from a persistent right-of-track bias in several cases at the 4-5 day forecast lead times. The reasons for this bias were related to the strength of the subtropical ridge over the western North Atlantic and are continuing to be investigated and diagnosed. A few key case studies from this very active hurricane season, including Hurricanes Laura and Delta, were examined.

Influence on the Temperature Estimation by the Planetary Boundary Layer Scheme with Different Minimum Eddy Diffusivity in WRF v3.9.1.1

The minimum eddy diffusivity (Kzmin) in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme is able to influence the performance of the model in simulating meteorological parameters such as the temperature. However, detailed studies on the sensitivities of the simulated temperature to the settings of Kzmin are still lacking. Thus, in this study, we evaluated the performance of the ACM2 (Asymmetrical Convective Model, version 2) scheme in the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model with different settings of Kzmin, in simulating the spatiotemporal distribution of the temperature in the region of Beijing, China. Five constant values as well as a function were implemented in the model to calculate Kzmin, and the simulation results with different settings of Kzmin were compared and analyzed. The results show that the increase of Kzmin leads to an elevation of the 2-m temperature, especially in the nighttime. We figured out that the deviation of the 2-m temperature at night is mainly caused by the different estimation of the turbulent mixing under stable conditions in simulation scenarios with different Kzmin settings. Moreover, the spatial distribution of the temperature deviation indicates that under various underlying surface categories, the change of Kzmin exerts a different influence on the prediction of the 2-m temperature, and the influence was found stronger during the nighttime than during the daytime, in plain areas than in mountain areas, in urban areas than in non-urban areas. In the nighttime of the urban areas, the influence on the simulated 2-m temperature brought about by the change of Kzmin was found the strongest. In addition, we found that the implementation of a functional type Kzmin in the ACM2 scheme helps to improve the performance of the model in capturing the diurnal change and the vertical distribution of the temperature in this region, compared with that using a constant Kzmin.

Assessing a planetary boundary layer scheme by using the GABLS1 experiment in a single-column version of the global model developed based on potential vorticity

<p>Determining the accuracy of a hydrostatic weather forecast model in representing atmospheric phenomena is a complex process involving various considerations and test cases. This study delineates an objective assessment of a planetary boundary layer scheme based on turbulent kinetic energy in a single-column version of the innovative atmospheric general circulation model developed at the University of Tehran, which is called UTGAM. Single-column models provide simple frameworks to investigate the fidelity of the simulated physical processes in the atmospheric models. Dependable parameterization of the boundary layer processes has significant impacts on weather forecasts. Specifically, an ongoing issue for the operational hydrostatic models is their deficiencies in the accurate representation of the unresolved processes in stably stratified conditions.</p><p>We have utilized the first GABLS intercomparison experiment set up as a simple tool to evaluate the diffusion scheme in the UTGAM. Two different sigma-theta and sigma-pressure single-column grid staggering combined with 33 and 14 vertical levels below 3 km height have been used for the low- and high-resolution simulations. The GABLS1 Large Eddy Simulation (LES) results have been used as a benchmark for comparison. The diffusion scheme explored here is the same as the one in the ECHAM model which has been adapted for use in the UTGAM.</p><p>Results depict subtle nuances between the sigma-theta and sigma-pressure coordinates in intercomparison between the low and high vertical resolutions separately, which are more apparent in the lower vertical resolution. Nevertheless, it seems that the diffusion processes have been simulated a bit more accurately in the high-resolution sigma-pressure vertical coordinate. The boundary layer scheme in the UTGAM analogous with most of the operational models in the GABLS1 intercomparison experiment overestimate the diffusion coefficients of momentum and heat. The wind profile with height depicts maxima that are higher than the corresponding LES profile. It is inferred that the scheme mixed momentum over a deeper layer than the LES, but the simulated wind profile is better compared to the other operational models in GABLS1. Considering the vertical profiles of potential temperature revealed that the amount of heat mixing is not suitable in this experiment and causes a negative bias in the lower part of the simulated boundary layer. The simulated amounts of surface friction velocity have proved significant differences with the LES results in all separate experiments. However, the latter large amounts seem unlikely to have a detrimental effect on forecast scores in the operational model. Moreover, the sensitivity of the scheme to the lowest full-level has been partially explored. Decreasing the lowest full-level height concurrent with increasing the vertical resolution exerts a modest influence on the simulation of the boundary layer processes. All the results confirm notable improvements by increasing the vertical resolution in both sigma-theta and sigma-pressure coordinates.</p><p><strong>Keywords:</strong> Simulation, GABLS1, stable boundary layer, vertical coordinate, diffusion coefficients, UTGAM</p>

Stochastic Parameterization of Processes Leading to Convective Initiation in Kilometer-Scale Models

Kilometer-scale models allow for an explicit simulation of deep convective overturning but many subgrid processes that are crucial for convective initiation are still poorly represented. This leads to biases such as insufficient convection triggering and late peak of summertime convection. A physically based stochastic perturbation scheme (PSP) for subgrid processes has been proposed (Kober and Craig) that targets the coupling between subgrid turbulence and resolved convection. The first part of this study presents four modifications to this PSP scheme for subgrid turbulence: an autoregressive, continuously evolving random field; a limitation of the perturbations to the boundary layer that removes artificial convection at night; a mask that turns off perturbations in precipitating columns to retain coherent structures; and nondivergent wind perturbations that drastically increase the effectiveness of the vertical velocity perturbations. In a revised version, PSP2, the combined modifications retain the physically based coupling to the boundary layer scheme of the original scheme while removing undesirable side effects. This has the potential to improve predictions of convective initiation in kilometer-scale models while minimizing other biases. The second part of the study focuses on perturbations to account for convective initiation by subgrid orography. Here the mechanical lifting effect is modeled by introducing vertical and horizontal wind perturbations of an orographically induced gravity wave. The resulting perturbations lead to enhanced convective initiation over mountainous terrain. However, the total benefit of this scheme is unclear and we do not adopt the scheme in our revised configuration.

Sensitivity of mesoscale dust simulation to WRF_Chem boundary layer scheme (case study: March 14th 2012)

Introduction: Recently, local dust events increased in Khuzestan province. Therefore, knowledge on its properties can have a crucial role in future prediction and planning. Materials and methods: This study investigated the effect of different boundary layer schemes for dust simulation by WRF_Chem model on March 14th 2012 in Khuzestan province. To validate the model, observation data such as horizontal visibility, 10-m wind speed and PM10 were provided. Results: The results indicated that the MYN scheme has the highest correlation between model outputs and observation for 10-m wind speed, PM10 and horizontal visibility. Due to the highest correlation of the 10 m wind speed, horizontal visibility, PM10 respectively with 0.83, -0.76 and 0.76 values and the highest consistency with the day-night variation of PM10, MYN scheme can be selected as the most suitable scheme. At the second level, UW scheme seems to be an appropriate option. In MYN and UW schemes, the maximum wind speed in 925 hPa level was estimated 24 m/s at 03 UTC, March 14th which caused an increase in the 10 m wind speed at 06 and 09UTC. Therefore, the dust emitted from the surface to the air. Although the results of MYJ scheme showed proper correlation and temporal variation with observed, but as it determined PM10 concentration with high difference, it can’t be considered as a suitable scheme for simulation dust concentration. Conclusion: Although the PM10 concentration obtained by WRF_Chem showed difference with the observation for all the selected boundary layer schemes, MYN scheme gives the most appropriate result.