Unusual long & short spell of fog conditions over Delhi and northern plains of India during December-January, 2009-2010

Sheet of fog is a common scenario during December-January months, which not only occurs in northern India but also in Bangladesh and Pakistan. Maximum fog frequency is noticed in Delhi and adjoining areas. This also affected the maximum temperature during January 1969-88, it varied between 20.6-21.5° C and during 2005 it was 18.9° C and 19.03° C during 2010. Formation of fog and its sustainability mainly depends upon surface wind, relative humidity, minimum temperature and persistency. Maximum dense fog was 285, 190 and 176 hours in 1998-99, 2002-03 and in 2009-10 respectively. During the month of January 2010 there were 5 western disturbances which enhanced the moisture over northern India, surface wind speed remained around 5 kt or less. Inversion in lower levels and freezing level has also been taken into consideration. No significant relation was found between fog and freezing level. However, inversion layer played an important role in formation of fog. Visible satellite imageries have also been taken into consideration to monitor fog over vast area of northern India, Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Synoptic processes of winter precipitation in the Upper Indus Basin

Precipitation in the Upper Indus Basin is triggered by orographic interaction and the forced uplift of a cross-barrier moisture flow. Winter precipitation events are particularly active in this region and are driven by an approaching upper-troposphere western disturbance. Here statistical tools are used to decompose the winter precipitation time series into a wind and a moisture contribution. The relationship between each contribution and the western disturbances are investigated. We find that the wind contribution is related not only to the intensity of the upper-troposphere disturbances but also to their thermal structure through baroclinic processes. Particularly, a short-lived baroclinic interaction between the western disturbance and the lower-altitude cross-barrier flow occurs due to the shape of the relief. This interaction explains both the high activity of western disturbances in the area and their quick decay as they move further east. We also revealed the existence of a moisture pathway from the Red Sea to the Persian Gulf and the north of the Arabian Sea. A western disturbance strengthens this flow and steers it towards the Upper Indus Plain, particularly if it originates from a more southern latitude. In cases where the disturbance originates from the north-west, its impact on the moisture flow is limited, since the advected continental dry air drastically limits the precipitation output. The study offers a conceptual framework to study the synoptic activity of western disturbances as well as key parameters that explain their precipitation output. This can be used to investigate meso-scale processes or intra-seasonal to inter-annual synoptic activity.

Numerical study of western disturbances over western Himalayas using mesoscale model

Hkkjrh; {ks= esa ’khr _rq ds nkSjku if’peh fo{kksHkksa ¼MCY;w-Mh-½ dh egRoiw.kZ fo’ks"krkvksa dks izfr:fir djus ds fy, isu LVsV ;wfuoflZVh&us’kuy lsUVj Qksj ,V~eksLQsfjd fjlpZ ¼ih-,l-;w-&,u-lh-,-vkj-½ la;qDr jkT; vejhdk ds xSj ty LFkSfrd :ikUrj ds rkSj ij eslksLdsy ekWMy ¼,e- ,e- 5½ dk mi;ksx fd;k x;k gSA bl v/;;u esa nks xzgh; ifjlhek Lrj i)fr;ksa uker%&CySdknj ,oa gkSax&iSu rFkk pkj laogu izkpyhdj.k i)fr;ksa uker% dqvks] xzsy] dSufÝz’k ,oa csV~l&feYyj ds 60 fd- eh- ds {kSfrt foHksnu ekWMy dk mi;ksx djds vkB lqxzkfgrk iz;ksx fd, x, gaSA blesa {kSfrt foHksnu ekWMy rFkk LFkykÑfr ds egRo ds nks dkjdksa&30 fd-eh-] 60 fd-eh- ,oa 90 fd- eh- ds {kSfrt foHksnu ekWMy ftlesa ,d fLFkfr esa LFkykÑfr ij fopkj ugha fd;k x;k gS rFkk nwljh esa lkekU; LFkykÑfr ij fopkj fd;k x;k gS] ds vk/kkj ij N% iz;ksx djds v/;;u fd;k x;k gSA bl v/;;u ds fy, nks lfØ; if’peh fo{kksHkksa dk p;u fd;k x;k gS ftlds dkj.k if’peh fgeky; {ks= esa Hkkjh o`f"V gqbZA izFke v/;;u ds fy, 18 tuojh ls 21 tuojh] 1997 rd dh vof/k ds nkSjku ds if’peh fo{kksHk dk p;u fd;k x;k gS rFkk nwljs iz;ksx ds fy, 20 tuojh ls 25 tuojh] 1999 dh vof/k ds nkSjku ds if’peh fo{kksHk dk p;u fd;k x;k gSA blesa vkjafHkd rFkk lhekar fLFkfr;ksa ds fy, us’kuy lsUVj QkWj bu~okbjWuesUV fizMhD’ku&us’kuy lsUVj QkWj ,V~eksLQsfjd fjlpZ ¼,u- lh- b- ih-&,u- lh- , - vkj-½ la;qDr jkT; vejhdk }kjk iqufoZ’ysf"kr vkaadM+ksa dk mi;ksx fd;k x;k gSA bl v/;;u ls ;g irk pyk gS fd gkSax&iSu vkSj csV~l feYyj dh Øe’k% xzgh; ifjlhek Lrj rFkk es?k laogu izkpyhdj.k i)fr ds la;kstu dk izn’kZu mi;ksx dh xbZ vU; la;kstu i)fr;ksa ds rqyuk esa lcls vPNk jgk gSA vkn’kZ HkkSfrdh ¼ekWMy fQftDl½ vU; la;kstu i)fr;ksa dh rqyuk esa bl la;kstu ds }kjk leqnz ry dk nkc T;knk lgh izfr:fir djus esa l{ke jgh gSA blds vykok LFkykÑfr jfgr {ks= esa if’peh fo{kksHk dk izfr:i.k lkekU; LFkykÑfr esa izfr:fIkr if’peh fo{kksHk dh rqyuk esa de o"kkZ dh ek=k dks n’kkZrk gSA tc blesa lkekU; LFkykÑfr dks ’kkfey fd;k x;k rks fgeky; {ks= ds vkl&ikl Hkkjh o"kkZ gqbZA o"kkZ ds {ks=ksa ds ,dhÑr ekWMy lR;kfir fo’ys"k.k ds vuq:Ik ik, x, gaSA o"kkZ {ks=ksa ds lqxzkfgrk v/;;u ls irk pyk gS fd NksVs izHkko& {ks= ¼30 fd-eh-½ ds izfr:fir ekWMy vPNs ifj.kke nsrs gSaA ” A non-hydrostatic version of the Penn State University - National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU-NCAR), US, Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to simulate the characteristic features of the Western Disturbances (WDs) occurred over the Indian region during winter. In the present study sensitivity eight experiments are carried out by using two planetary boundary layer schemes, viz., Blackadar and Hong-Pan, and four convection parameterization schemes, viz., Kuo, Grell, Kain-Fristch and Betts-Miller, with 60 km horizontal model resolution. And also the role of horizontal model resolution and topography is studied by carrying out six experiments based on two factors: horizontal model resolution of 30 km, 60 km and 90 km with assumed no topography and normal topography. For this study two active WDs are chosen which yielded extensive precipitation over western Himalayas. WD from 18 to 21 January 1997 is chosen for study one and WD from 20 to 25 January 1999 is chosen for experiment two. National Center for Environmental Prediction – National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR), US, reanalyzed data is used for initial and boundary conditions. It is found that the performance of combination of the Hong-Pan and Betts-Miller as planetary boundary layer and cloud convection parameterization schemes respectively is best compared to the other combinations of schemes used in this study. The model physics could able to simulate sea level pressure better with this combination as compared to the combinations with other schemes. Further, WD simulations with assumed no topography shows lesser amount of precipitation compared to WD simulations with normal topography. When normal topography is included, intense localized of precipitation was observed along the Himalayan range. Model integrations of precipitation fields are found close to the corresponding verification analysis. Sensitivity studies of precipitation field shows that finer domain (30 km) of the model simulation gives better results.

Distribution of mean monthly surface/upper air parameters during July-August months of 1982-83 and 1987- 88

Lkkj & Hkkjrh; xzh"edkyhu ekulwu dks leqnz vkSj /kjkry dh feyh&tqyh ok;qeaMyh; ifj?kVuk ekurs gq, bldk v/;;u HkweaMyh; izÑfr ds ifjn`’; esa fd;k x;k gSA bl v/;;u esa nks fo"ke ifjfLFkfr;ksa esa ekulwu ds O;ogkj dks le>us ds fy, Øe’k% de vkSj vf/kd nksuksa rjg dh o"kkZ okys nks o"kksaZ ¼1982] 1987½] nks o"kksaZ ¼1983] 1988½ esa xzh"edkyhu ekulwu ds nks izeq[k eghuksa tqykbZ vkSj vxLr ds nkSjku 'kwU; va’k m- ls 40 va’k m-@40 va’k iw- ls 100 va’k iw- ds {ks= esa ek/; ekfld /kjkryh; izkpyksa ds forj.k dks fy;k x;k gSA blds vfrfjDr xzh"edkyhu ekulwu ij {kksHkeaMyh; if’peh gokvksa ds izHkko vkSj if’peh fo{kksHkksa dh xfrfof/k dk ewY;kadu djus ds fy, fuEu {kksHkeaMy dh dfVca/kh; iouksa ds forj.k vFkkZr~] tqykbZ] vxLr ds eghuksa esa 850 gSDVkikLdy vkSj 700 gSDVkikLdy ds Lrjksa tuojh] ebZ] tqykbZ vkSj vxLr ds eghuksa ds fy, 500 gSDVkikLdy ij HkwfLFkfrt Å¡pkb;ksa dk v/;;u fd;k x;k gSA bl v/;;u ls izkIr gq, ifj.kkeksa ij fopkj&foe’kZ fd;k x;k gSA Indian summer monsoon is considered as an ocean-land-atmosphere coupled phenomenon and also of global nature. In present study, the distribution of mean monthly surface parameters within 0° N – 40° N / 40° E – 100° E region during the two representative months of summer monsoon, July and August, in both deficient years (1982, 1987) and excess years (1983, 1988) was taken up to understand the behaviour of monsoon during two contrasting situations. Apart from this, the distribution of lower tropospheric zonal winds viz., 850 hPa and 700 hPa levels during July, August months, 500 hPa geopotential heights for the months of January, May, July and August months studied to assess the influence of tropospheric westerlies and activity of Western Disturbances on the summer monsoon. The results discussed.

Role of CAPE and CINE in modulating the convective activities during April over India

During the month of April, except over northwest India, where rain is normally associated with the intrusion of midlatitudinal westerly systems in the form of western disturbances, other parts of the country receive rain due to enhancement of convective activities in the form of thundershowers, occurring over many parts of the country. The role of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Convective Inhibition Energy (CINE) were studied for the occurrence of more convective activities in the month of April 1997 compared to other years. The results reveal that larger values of CAPE and smaller values of CINE in April 1997 over various parts of India compared to other years were responsible for more convective activities and consequently appreciable fall in temperature in April 1997.

Synoptic processes of winter precipitation in the Upper Indus Basin

Precipitation in the Upper Indus Basin is triggered by cross-barrier moisture transport. Winter precipitation events are particularly active in this region and are driven by an approaching upper troposphere Western Disturbance. Here statistical tools are used to decompose the winter precipitation timeseries into a wind and a moisture contribution. The relationship between each contribution and the Western Disturbances are investigated. We find that the wind contribution is not only related to the intensity of the upper troposphere disturbances but also to their thermal structure through baroclinic processes. Particularly, a short-lived baroclinic interaction between the Western Disturbance and the lower altitude cross-barrier flow occurs due to the shape of the relief. This interaction explains both the high activity of Western Disturbances in the area, as well as their quick decay as they move further east. We also revealed the existence of a moisture pathway from the Red Sea, to the Persian Gulf and the north of the Arabian Sea. A Western Disturbance strengthens this flow and steers it towards the Upper Indus Plain, particularly if it originates from a more southern latitude. In cases where the disturbance originates from the north-west, its impact on the moisture flow is limited, since the advected continental dry air drastically limits the precipitation output. The study offers a conceptual framework to study the synoptic activity of Western Disturbances as well as key parameters that explain their precipitation output. This can be used to investigate meso-scale processes or intra-seasonal to inter-annual synoptic activity.

How interactions between tropical depressions and western disturbances affect heavy precipitation in South Asia

Interactions over South Asia between tropical depressions (TDs) and extratropical storms known as western disturbances (WDs) are known to cause extreme precipitation events, including those responsible for the 2013 floods over northern India. In this study, existing databases of WD and TD tracks are used to identify potential WD–TD interactions from 1979–2015; these are filtered according to proximity and intensity, leaving 59 cases which form the basis of this paper. Synoptic charts, vorticity budgets, and moisture trajectory analyses are employed to identify and elucidate common interaction types among these cases. Two broad families of interaction emerge. Firstly, a dynamical coupling of the WD and TD, whereby either the upper- and lower-level vortices superpose (a vortex merger), or the TD is intensified as it passes into the entrance region of a jet streak associated with the WD (a jet-streak excitation). Secondly, a moisture exchange between the WD and TD, whereby either anomalous moisture is advected from the TD to the WD, resulting in anomalous precipitation near the WD (a TD-to-WD moisture exchange), or anomalous moisture is advected from the WD to the TD (a WD-to-TD moisture exchange). Interactions are most common in the post-monsoon period as the subtropical jet, which brings WDs to the subcontinent, returns south; there is a smaller peak in May and June, driven by monsoon onset vortices. Precipitation is heaviest in dynamically-coupled interactions, particularly jet-streak excitations. Criteria for automated identification of interaction types are proposed, and schematics for each type are presented to highlight key mechanisms.

Indian Monsoon Precipitation over Orography: Verification and Enhancement of understanding – Outcomes of the IMPROVE project

<p>IMPROVE is motivated by the effects of orography on Indian precipitation as part of the diurnal cycle of convection, contributing to water supply, as well as its role in extreme events.  IMPROVE considers two focal regions.  The Western Ghats, which intercept the monsoon flow across the Arabian Sea, receive some of the most frequent and heaviest rainfall during summer as well as being subject to extremes such as the 2018 Kerala floods.  Meanwhile, the Himalayas play a vital role in separating dry midlatitude flows from tropical airmasses and are subject to extremes during the summer monsoon, as well as in winter due to the passage of western disturbances.  This presentation summarizes the key results of IMPROVE.  Firstly, we examine the impact of orography on the observed convective diurnal cycle and assess its simulation in models at a range of resolutions including convection-permitting scales.  MetUM and WRF model experiments are used to identify key mechanisms and test their capability at simulating scale interactions between forcing at the large scale from the BSISO and newly identified regimes of on- and offshore convection near the Western Ghats.  An additional aspect to this work is the construction of a two-layer analytical model to test the behaviour of sheared flow perpendicular to a ridge analogous to the Western Ghats.  Secondly, the role of orography in extreme events is considered.  For the Western Ghats, this focuses on the interaction between monsoon low-pressure systems and the southwesterly flow in enhancing local rainfall.  For the Himalayas, we focus on characterising interactions between tropical lows and western disturbances in enhancing the orographic precipitation.  The work in IMPROVE works towards a deeper understanding of orographic rainfall and its extremes over India and uncovering why such mechanisms may be poorly represented in models.</p>