A new sampling capability for uncertainty quantification in the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model v4.19 using Gaussian Markov random fields

Assessing the impact of uncertainties in ice-sheet models is a major and challenging issue that needs to be faced by the ice-sheet community to provide more robust and reliable model-based projections of ice-sheet mass balance. In recent years, uncertainty quantification (UQ) has been increasingly used to characterize and explore uncertainty in ice-sheet models and improve the robustness of their projections. A typical UQ analysis involves first the (probabilistic) characterization of the sources of uncertainty followed by the propagation and sensitivity analysis of these sources of uncertainty. Previous studies concerned with UQ in ice-sheet models have generally focused on the last two steps but paid relatively little attention to the preliminary and critical step of the characterization of uncertainty. Sources of uncertainty in ice-sheet models, like uncertainties in ice-sheet geometry or surface mass balance, typically vary in space and potentially in time. For that reason, they are more adequately described as spatio(-temporal) random fields, which account naturally for spatial (and temporal) correlation. As a means of improving the characterization of the sources of uncertainties in ice-sheet models, we propose in this paper to represent them as Gaussian random fields with Matérn covariance function. The class of Matérn covariance functions provides a flexible model able to capture statistical dependence between locations with different degrees of spatial correlation or smoothness properties. Samples from a Gaussian random field with Matérn covariance function can be generated efficiently by solving a certain stochastic partial differential equation. Discretization of this stochastic partial differential equation by the finite element method results in a sparse approximation known as a Gaussian Markov random field. We solve this equation efficiently using the finite element method within the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM). In addition, spatio-temporal samples can be generated by combining an autoregressive temporal model and the Matérn field. The implementation is tested on a set of synthetic experiments to verify that it captures well the desired spatial and temporal correlations. Finally, we demonstrate the interest of this sampling capability in an illustration concerned with assessing the impact of various sources of uncertainties on the Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica. We find that both larger spatial and temporal correlations lengths will likely result in increased uncertainty in the projections.

Constrained electrical resistivity tomography Bayesian inversion using inverse Matérn covariance matrix

Bayesian inversion using maximum a posteriori estimator is a quantitative approach that has been successfully applied to the electrical resistivity tomography inverse problem. In most approaches, model covariance parameters are generally chosen as stationary and isotropic, which assumes a statistical homogeneity of the studied field. However, the statistical properties of resistivity within the earth are, in reality, location dependent due to spatially varying processes that control the bulk resistivity of rocks, such as water content, porosity, clay content, etc. Taking into account the spatial variability of the resistivity field, we use the nonstationary Matérn covariance family, which is defined through linear stochastic partial differential equations. Two types of prior information are considered: structure orientation and spatially increasing the range with increasing depth. The latter is applied successfully on the first synthetic model, which aims at retrieving the depth of bedrock and the shape of the conductive lens. In the second synthetic example, a conductive dike model embedded into four layers is used to study the performance of structure orientation. Finally, the proposed approach is used to invert real data measured over an extensively characterized sandy-to-silty aquifer. First, the structure orientation of this aquifer was determined by applying a structure tensor calculated using gradients of the ground penetrating radar image. The introduction of this information gives a resistivity model that is more compatible with the aquifer structure.