A policy prioritization framework using causal layered analysis and MCDM: case study of Iran’s environmental policies

Purpose This paper aims to propose a policy prioritization framework in view of a layered scenario building along with key stakeholder analysis and has been applied in a case study to determine the priority of Iran environmental policies at the horizon of 2030. A creative framework that covers future scenarios and allows for a more accurate and intelligent policy assessment and prioritization. Design/methodology/approach The general environmental policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran are evaluated, and observation policies in social area were identified. Causal layered analysis (CLA) is applied for policy prioritization based on layered probable scenarios and key stakeholder role consideration. The Multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) is also used for ranking General Environmental Policies by the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS). Findings Four uncertainties were obtained in different layers based on the CLA analysis, resulting in the creation of four main scenario and 16 discrete scenarios. Finally, Iran’s environmental policies were prioritized given the probable scenarios and the centralized policies on the social and political domains. The proposed model will be effective in policy-making in multilateral atmosphere to prioritize policies and alternative macro-strategies. Originality/value This paper shows that foresight and especially developed scenarios provide intelligent, efficient and effective planning and policy-making, and in addition to illustrating surrounding changes and probable future imagery, it generates common understanding and inter-subjective knowledge by increasing participation of various officials and stakeholders.

Extending the Participant’s Voice to Guide Artificial Intelligence Transformation Using Futures Methodology and Layered User Story Analysis

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a vital driver of the next wave of automatisation of Industry 4.0. It impacts product-based and service-based organisations and is becoming an investment stream in organisational transformation strategies. The transformation teams that deploy AI use agile incremental methodologies that ideally match the learning and adaptation requirements for the machine, as well as the human user who is the source of data and requires a service response. This research outlines a layered analysis process of 65 user stories (a common agile method of obtaining user requirements) generated via a participatory process, involving 110 participants in three workshop settings, in what they determined AI would not do. The results outline the workshop approach undertaken to generate user stories and the analysis of user stories via persona and futures methodology causal layered analysis (Inayatullah S. 1998. Causal layered analysis. Futures 30(8): 815-829). The final component of the analysis generated a futures focussed set of guiding principles that can be used as a lens to broaden the transformation teams perspective in AI deployment. Concepts also consider the importance of futures literacy as a key competency of AI creation teams.

Transitional foresight: MLP as the theoretical underpinning of CLA: the case of the water sector of Iran

Purpose The paper aims to complement the six pillars analysis with the multi-level perspective to make it more systematic and policy relevant. Design/methodology/approach Take the innovation system foresight as the exemplar; the paper asks if the other systemic approaches to innovation can function as the middle range theory and underpin critical future studies. To answer, the paper combines the six-pillar approach (SPA) with the multilevel perspective (MLP) and builds “transitional foresight”. Then it takes the fourth pillar; transitional causal layered analysis and applies it to a case study: water stress in Iran. The paper concludes noting that in transitional foresight, the borderlines, the players and the orientations of the foresight are clearer than the six-pillar analysis. Findings The SPA and MLP-integrated framework make a powerful research instrument for transitional foresight. Research limitations/implications The paper applied the integrated framework to a case “water system in Iran”. But the framework should be applied in different cases in different countries to test its applicability. Practical implications The suggested framework can be used as a heuristics for the students and researchers who want to engage with the emancipatory perspective of the six-pillar approach and need to have an academic methodology with rigor and granularity. Originality/value The six-pillar approach of Sohail Inayatullah and the multilevel perspective of Geels can combine to make a powerful heuristic for transitional foresight.

The Pedagogies for critical agency: Portals to alternative futures

‘Pedagogies in context’ are explored through a national project working with academic staff developers and new academics' induction and transitioning into higher education. Causal-layered analysis is used to explore the interplay between academic staff, institutional development, and contextual influences in shaping professional learning processes. Data generated by the project’s steering committee (SC) reflects on pedagogical encounters with the NATHEP participants and conference delegates (HELTASA, 2019). The outcomes of each intervention were compared by reflecting on who was in the room and how epistemological and ontological depth in each engagement was achieved. The study was guided by whether pedagogies are mobile and agile, irrespective of context. The SC asserts that pedagogies in context are relative to the participants, purpose and the project embedded in a specific context to achieve the epistemological, ontological, methodological, and axiological breadth and depth required. The portability of pedagogies from one context to another depends on aspects intrinsic to knowledge generation, transformation and decolonisation, engagement, being and becoming, and socio-cultural and historical conditions. This is also incumbent on the agility and flexibility of facilitators to adapt their repertoire to draw on a suite of contextually relevant pedagogical approaches.

Analysis of the CHP Technological Innovation System in Iran using the Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

Background: As many other countries, Iran has adopted policies consider energy technologies development. One of these technologies around which several national programs have launched is the Cogeneration of Heat and Power (CHP). Despite the variety of plans and actions in different governmental and non-governmental bodies, the fact is that the national targets have not been fulfilled as they were expected. Since the first step to make policies for technology development is recognizing the problems and bottlenecks hindering the development process, the main aim of this paper is to provide a model to analyze the failures of technology development process according to Technological Innovation System (TIS) approach. Besides, the CLA method has been used to decipher the profound and latent factors causing these problems. Results: By mixing up CLA and TIS approaches, this paper achieves a comprehensive model describing the causal relationship between multi-layered problems of technology development. Afterwards, by using structural equation modelling, the correlation amongst multi-layered problems was tested. While most studies have concentrated on the structural and functional problems of the TIS, the results of the model demonstrate a significant role of the discourses and visions. Although the structural problems have had the most significant effect on the functional problems, surprisingly, the second position is for the problems related to metaphors. This might be the most noticeable result of this research that the metaphoric and visionary factors can play a role as important as structures of the TIS. Conclusion: The results of the study indicate that the discursive and metaphoric factors have had the significant effect both directly on the failure of the CHP innovation system and indirectly through affecting structural elements. A notable policy suggestion is to change the discourse of centralized power generation and to make more effort regarding the energy efficiency in the society. Moreover, policies should create a positive and long-term vision for development of CHP plants.