Exploring the impact of technological disruptions in the automotive retail: A futures studies and systems thinking approach based on causal layered analysis and causal loop diagram

2021 ◽  
Vol 172 ◽  
pp. 121024
Author(s):  
Sehoon Kim ◽  
Timothy Paul Connerton ◽  
Cheongyeul Park
Keyword(s):  
Systems Thinking ◽  
Causal Loop Diagram ◽  
Futures Studies ◽  
Loop Diagram ◽  
Causal Loop ◽  
Causal Layered Analysis ◽  
Systems Thinking Approach ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Identifikasi Penyebab Hambatan Supply Chain Management PPDB Menggunakan Causal Loop Diagram

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-28
Author(s):  
Ahmad Irfangi ◽  
Fathul Aminudin Aziz ◽  
Wiwiek R. Adawiyah ◽  
Dwita Darmawati
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Supply Chain Management ◽  
Causal Loop Diagram ◽  
Chain Management ◽  
Loop Diagram ◽  
Causal Loop ◽  
Dynamic Factors ◽  
Approach Method ◽  
The Impact ◽  
New Student

The research on supply chain management had been carried out in both manufacturing andservices companies. In practice, supply chain management also could be applied to the education sector.Several researches related to supply chain management had been carried out in universities, especially inthe process admitting new student. The research on new student admintance supply chain management(PPDB) in schools, especially private vocational schools has never been done. In practice, PPDB inprivate vocational school turn out to have challenges, restrictions and obstacles in the process.New ideas and strategies began to emerge about how strategic efforts to increase the number ofnew student. To solve these problems, it is necessary to pay attention and consider the inhibiting factorsand the causes of PPDB. The maaping of inhibiting factors and the causes of PPDB supply chainmanagement was done through a system approach method with a causal loop diagram (CLD) model thatemphasizes the impact of dynamic factors associated with cause and effect problems that effect theadmintance of the quantity of new student. The result obtained were in the form of causal loop diagram(CLD) model as strategic effort in accepting the quantity of new students.

Locating Potential Leverage Points In A Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram Toward Policy Intervention

World Futures ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 75 (8) ◽  
pp. 609-631
Author(s):  
Fernando Martin Y. Roxas ◽  
John Paolo R. Rivera ◽  
Eylla Laire M. Gutierrez
Keyword(s):  
Systems Thinking ◽  
Policy Intervention ◽  
Causal Loop Diagram ◽  
Leverage Points ◽  
Loop Diagram ◽  
Causal Loop

scholarly journals Developing Complexity-Informed COVID-19 Responses to Optimize Community Well-Being: A Systems Thinking Approach

Systems ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 68
Author(s):  
Stephanie Bogdewic ◽  
Rohit Ramaswamy
Keyword(s):  
Systems Thinking ◽  
Local Level ◽  
State Level ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Causal Loop Diagram ◽  
Leverage Points ◽  
Loop Diagram ◽  
Causal Loop ◽  
Future System ◽  
Potential System

Despite a range of federal and state interventions to slow the spread of COVID-19, the US has seen millions of infections and hundreds of thousands of deaths. Top-down mandates have been ineffective because the community spread of the pandemic has been influenced by complex local dynamics that have evolved over time. Systems thinking approaches, specifically causal loop diagrams, and leverage points, are important techniques for representing complexity at the local level and identifying responsive systems change opportunities. This commentary presents a causal loop diagram highlighting the progressive effects of prolonged state-level COVID-19 mandates at the community level. We also identify potential system leverage points that address these effects and present an imagined future state causal loop diagram in which these solutions are implemented. Our future system demonstrates the importance of collaborations to enable community-driven, bottom-up approaches to public health crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, that are adaptive and responsive to local needs.

scholarly journals Kajian Kualitatif Dampak Bantuan Pemerintah pada Peternakan Sapi Potong Menggunakan Pendekatan Model

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 114
Author(s):  
Novie Andri Setianto
Keyword(s):  
Production Cycle ◽  
Causal Loop Diagram ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Qualitative Modelling ◽  
Loop Diagram ◽  
Causal Loop ◽  
Farmer Groups ◽  
The Government ◽  
Government Grant ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRAK. Pemerintah telah mengimplementasikan banyak program untuk meningkatkan populasi sapi di Indonesia, namun untuk memenuhi kebutuhan daging nasional Indonesia masih tergantung pada impor. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengkaji dampak bantuan pemerintah terhadap kinerja kelompok peternak sapi potong, terutama pada aspek sosial ekonomi. Pemodelan kualitatif menggunakan Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) dipilih untuk memetakan hubungan antar elemen yang terkait. Penelitian dilakukan dengan observasi langsung, wawancara semi-terstruktur, dan lokakarya pada dua kelompok ternak di Kabupaten Banjarnegara dan Banyumas. Diagram menunjukkan bahwa dalam di dalam sistem teridentifikasi enam buah loops yang terbagi atas tiga loops penyeimbang dan tiga loops saling memperkuat. Berdasarkan studi ini dapat diketahui bahwa program pemerintah yang pada awalnya didesain untuk memacu populasi sapi potong, pada kenyataanya di level peternak tidak sepenuhnya teradopsi dengan baik. Peternak hanya mengadopsi aktifitas yang dinilai lebih mudah dan lebih cepat mendatangkan keuntungan. Besarnya nilai bantuan berupa uang tunai yang langsung masuk ke rekening kelompok memicu keinginan peternak untuk dapat memperoleh keuntungan secepat-cepatnya, sehingga peternak lebih memilih penggemukan yang memiliki siklus lebih cepat. (Qualitative modelling of the impact of government grant on beef cattle farming performance) ABSTRACT. The Government of Indonesia has introduced various programs to increase the cattle population. However, Indonesia still relies on imports to meet national demand. This study aimed to explore the impact of government program on the performance of farmer groups, particularly in socioeconomic aspect. Qualitative modelling using Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) of System Dynamics methodology was applied to connect the linkages among elements. A series of observations, semi-structured interviews, and workshops were undertaken involving two farmer groups from two districts; Banjarnegara and Banyumas. CLD showed a total of 6 loops; 3 balancing and 3 reinforcing loops. Each loop represented certain behaviour of the system. The study revealed that the program which initially designed to build engine of growth to boost population from farmers’ group level were not entirely implemented as it is. There were indications of selective adoption and side tracking. Farmers tended to prefer activities which more profitable and generate cash fasterly. A large amount of cash flow into farmers bank account provoked farmers to get immediate benefit, thus farmers choose the fattening over breeding which considered having shorter production cycle and disregarding the breeding which took longer time to produce cash.

scholarly journals The Impact of Population and Deforestation on Climate Change in Malaysia: A Causal Loop Diagram

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 419-425
Author(s):  
Musthaza Mohammad ◽  
Wan Laailatul Hanim Mat Desa ◽  
Norazura Ahmad ◽  
Norhaslinda Zainal Abidin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Causal Loop Diagram ◽  
Loop Diagram ◽  
Causal Loop ◽  
The Impact

MODEL STRUKTUR EKONOMI RUMAH TANGGA PETANI PADI DI KABUPATEN INDRMAYU, PROVINSI JAWA BARAT (Suatu Analisis Menggunakan Sistem Thinking)

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 071
Author(s):  
Ivonne Ayesha
Keyword(s):  
System Thinking ◽  
Causal Loop Diagram ◽  
Loop Diagram ◽  
Causal Loop

Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk membangun pemahaman (understanding) tentang fenomena ekonomi rumah tangga petani penggarap secara clear dan distinct, dan menyusun model ekonomi rumah tangga petani penggarap yang dapat menjelaskan faktor-faktor yang penentu dan interaksi variabel-variabel yang saling terkait. Penelitian ini bersifat kualitatif dengan jenis studi fenomenologi. Responden dalam penelitian ini adalah petani padi yang tidak punya lahan (penyakap) yang melakukan usahatani di Kabupaten Indramayu, Provinsi Jawa Barat, sebanyak 7 orang dengan lokasi yang berbeda, namun masih dalam kabupaten yang sama. Di samping itu, responden juga diambil dari perangkat desa, tokoh masyarakat, dan PPL. Responen ditetapkan secara sengaja (purposive), sesuai dengan kebutuhan penelitian ini. Data yang digunakan adalah data primer, sedangkan analisis data menggunakan cara berfikir sistem (system thinking). Hasil analisis data ditampilkan dalam bentuk diagram sebab akibat (causal loop diagram), dengan menggunakan program Vensim PLE. Hasil penelitian menyimpulkan: 1) Rumah tangga petani penyakap sebagai unit ekonomi terkecil yang memiliki sumber pemasukan dan pengeluaran rumah tangga, baik dari dan untuk memenuhi kebutuhan usahatani maupun non usahatani. Meskipun nilai penerimaan yang diperoleh sangat sedikit, namun petani penyakap tetap melaksanakan usahatani padi dari musim ke musim. Kekurangan uang dalam rumah tangga diatasi dengan melakukan pinjaman ke para pelepas uang (rentenir) dan tengkulak. Sedikit sekali petani yang memanfaatkan jasa keuangan formal dalam mengatasi masalah ekonomi rumah tangga. Pola hidup konsumtif sering menyebabkan petani terjebak dalam lingkaran hutang, dan 2) Model ekonomi rumah tangga petani penyakap yang disusun mengandung 2 lingkar sebab akibat positif dan satu lingkar sebab akibat negatif. Lingkar sebab akibat positif terdapat pada struktur pinjaman usahatani dan struktur pinjaman non usahatani. Lingkar sebab akibat negatif terdapat pada struktur pengeluaran. Model ini menunjukkan bahwa uang dalam rumah tangga bertambah dengan adanya pemasukan dan berkurang dengan adanya pengeluaran. Variabel pemasukan merupakan akumulasi dari penghasilan bersih, pinjaman usahatani dan pinjaman non usahatani. Variabel pengeluaran ditentukan oleh total pengeluaran rumah tangga. Total pengelaran rumah tangga merupakan akumulasi dari: pengeluaran usahatani, pengeluaran non usahatani, pembayaran iyuran desa, biaya sosial, konsumsi rumah tangga, dan pembayaran hutang non usahatani

Modelling environmental and economic sustainability of logistics

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-94
Author(s):  
Pragya Arya ◽  
Manoj Kumar Srivastava ◽  
Mahadeo P. Jaiswal
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Economic Sustainability ◽  
Causal Loop Diagram ◽  
Bottom Line ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Loop Diagram ◽  
Causal Loop ◽  
Model Based

Purpose Research on sustainability has progressed from a singular focus on one aspect to a simultaneous focus on more than one aspect of the triple bottom line. However, there is a dearth of research that explains why sustainability-related decisions in business often do not bear the expected results. Research that provides managers with a tool to achieve environmental sustainability of logistics without compromising the economic sustainability is scarce. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to bridge the above gaps and to explore the factors that affect investment in technology to balance environmental and economic sustainability of logistics. A model based on system dynamics approach explains the simultaneous interplay of these factors. Simulating the model helps the managers of logistics function decide the size of investment in technology, to achieve environmental efficiency without negatively influencing the economic performance. Design/methodology/approach A model based on system dynamics approach explains the simultaneous interplay of these factors. Simulating the model helps the managers of logistics function decide the size of investment in technology, to achieve ecological efficiency without compromising with the economic performance. Findings Collaboration with regulatory authorities and with players within the same industry and across industries is a must so that eco-logistics does not become an economic burden for businesses. The decision to invest in technology for eco-logistics is further accentuated if the technology promises some added economic benefits. Research limitations/implications From a theoretical perspective, the research has added to the less extensive literature on system dynamics modelling, which is a mixed methodology, combining both qualitative and quantitative techniques. The research is also one of the few attempts that have attempted to simultaneously study more than one aspects of sustainability in business, quantitatively through simulation. Simulation was demonstrated through a single case study, Future works can aim to apply the causal loop diagram to firms in varied sectors. Practical implications The managers can use the causal loop diagram to assess the environmental performance of logistics and decide on appropriate level of investment to balance ecological and economic performance of logistics. Originality/value The causal loop diagram has been developed through primary data collection via semi-structured interviews. The results were validated by presenting them to respondents to ensure they represent their view points. The results are, therefore, practical and original. This research does not build upon an existing data set or aims to test the applicability of any existing model. The model for this research has been developed from the grass-roots level.

Analysis of crowd stampede risk mechanism

Kybernetes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 124-142 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xie Kefan ◽  
Yu Song ◽  
Sishi Liu ◽  
Jia Liu
Keyword(s):  
Deep Level ◽  
Fundamental Solutions ◽  
Causal Loop Diagram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Loop Diagram ◽  
Causal Loop ◽  
Critical Data ◽  
Systemic Analysis ◽  
Linkage Effect ◽  
A Chain

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the crowd stampede risk mechanism from the perspective of systems thinking. Design/methodology/approach Causal loop diagram is drawn to outline the non-linear interactions among complex factors across the whole system and dissect the contributory factors of crowd stampede accident. To systematically construct the theoretical framework and find fundamental solutions, co-word analysis with Citespace is used to get the critical data. An agent-based simulation using Pathfinder is conducted to develop a spatial model for the Shanghai Stampede Accident that happened in 2014. Findings The causal loop diagram is formed to not only illustrate the symptomatic solutions with a quick fix but also dissect the fundamental solutions through an underlying systemic analysis. The simulation shows that crowd stampede experiences an interactive process of accumulation, trigger, delay, break and diffusion of risk factors within the crowd system. A linkage effect among the multidimensional characters of individuals and the system accelerates the stampede risk deterioration. There exists delay of the result of effect from the deep-level measure. Practical implications A top-down approach is offered to policymakers for crowd stampede risk protocol design and synergic emergency control that may reduce the risk of the stampede. Originality/value In this study, SDFT paradigm is proposed as the critical solution for the crowd stampede accident. In addition, a chain effect of energy and a linkage effect within the crowd system is illustrated for in-depth understanding of crowd stampede risk.

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