An empirical analysis of the determinants of the U.S. banks’ profitability

This study investigates the determinants of the profitability of U.S. banks. Employing quarterly data, this paper further examines the historical and recent trends for all U.S. banks from 1996 to 2019 in the relationship between return and assets (ROA) and other bank internal (or endogenous) profitability contributors such as net interest margin (NIM), loan loss reserves, ratio of non-performing loans to gross loans, and external (or exogenous) macroeconomic variables, such as the 30-year average mortgage rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) economic growth rate, unemployment rate, interest rate, inflation rate and openness (i.e., exports + imports/GDP) by using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator technique. The results reveal that bank-specific variables, including net interest margin, loan loss reserves and non-performing loans, have a significant impact on bank profitability in the United States. Similarly, the results show that macroeconomic variables, namely the average mortgage rate, economic growth, and unemployment rate, exert significant effects on the U.S. banks’ profitability. The results further indicate that changes in openness are detrimental to bank profitability. The implications are discussed.

Product differentiation and populistic entry strategies in a mortgage market with Bertrand competition

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyse the interaction between a profit maximising mortgagor and a newcomer to a mortgage market with Bertrand competition where the newcomer has a populistic entry strategy and undercuts mortgage market rates. The intention of the paper is to relate the populistic entry strategy to mortgage market characteristics and the strategic market position of both the established mortgagor and the newcomer in question.Design/methodology/approachThe paper analyses a mortgage market by combining the behaviour of a profit maximising mortgagor with that of a newcomer to the mortgage market which has a populistic entry strategy and does not maximise profits. The short-run market solution provides comparative statics on the strategic market position of both the established mortgagor and the newcomer to the mortgage market during the entry phase both related to product differentiation and to price mirroring and undercutting of mortgage rates.FindingsThe model finds a mortgage market solution where a lower mortgage rate helps the newcomer gain a customer base. As the newcomer's strategy to mirror prices makes it unable to pass-through funding cost to its mortgage rate, the strategy is unsustainable over time. The established mortgagor has a strategically beneficial position as the mortgage market rates only relate to its funding cost. Unless the newcomer has a funding cost advantage, the established mortgagor has a higher interest rate margin. Differentiation impacts the newcomers’ interest rate margin positively. If the newcomer lacks a funding cost advantage, there is a critical mirroring rate that ensures it a higher interest rate margin. The higher the newcomers’ own funding cost, the higher is the upper bound for price mirroring, relating market entry to a small undercutting of mortgage rates and a mortgage market with weak competition. The funding cost of the established mortgagor pulls pricing in the opposite direction, allowing for a lower mirroring rate and tougher mortgage market competition during entry.Originality/valueThe paper aims to contribute to the understanding of market equilibrium in the absence of profit maximising behaviour. Framing a mortgage market in terms of a duopoly where a newcomer enters with a populistic entry strategy offering a lower mortgage rate and a mortgage product with a different loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, a novel mortgage market case comes about. The populistic entry strategy produces an augmented reaction curve, crucial for the mortgage market rates.

Assessment of Influence of External Factors on Financial Stability of Construction Companies

When Russian construction companies switch to project financing they face a number of problems which have a negative impact on their operations. While a company is able to influence internal factors (such as resources, capital, their utilization efficiency etc.) it is virtually impossible to control external factors (inflation, unemployment, government policy etc.). These factors make a company less stable financially. One of manifestations of financial stability is resistance to external environmental disturbances. External factors influence corporate financial stability, they are mortgage rate, price increase index etc. Defining the extent of influence of external factors will help to mitigate the impact of external environment, alleviate the consequences. This makes the topic of the research relevant and increases the significance of analysis of external factors which influence corporate operations.In this paper we conducted content analysis of the financial stability definition; evaluated financial stability of 50 construction companies of the Siberian Federal District; selected statistical information by constituent entities of the Siberian Federal District which influences construction companies’ operations; assessed influence of the selected factors on financial stability of construction companies applying the binary choice model (logit model). The research showed that mortgage rate, consumer price index and nominal average salary influence construction companies of the Siberian Federal District. If influence of these factors is taken into consideration when planning and managing construction companies’ resources they will be able to resist the impact of external environment and improve their financial stability.

The Sensitivity of Housing Demand to Financing Conditions: Evidence from a Survey

Measuring the sensitivity of housing demand to mortgage rates and available leverage is challenging because there is generally no exogenous variation in these variables. This paper circumvents this issue by designing a strategic survey in which respondents report their willingness to pay (WTP) for a home under different financing scenarios. Relaxation of down payment constraints or an exogenous increase in nonhousing wealth has large effects on WTP, especially for poorer and more credit-constrained households. However, changing the mortgage rate has only moderate effects on WTP. These findings have implications for theoretical models of house price determination and for policy. (JEL G21, G51, R21, R38)

Financial modeling of the influence of factors on the mortgage rate in developed countries

The article evaluates the impact of a certain list of factors on the main indicators of the development of the housing market, including its financing. Within the framework of the study, a system of statistical indicators was formed, which were divided into two blocks and their influence on each other and on the market was determined. It is essential to determine the mutual combination of housing provision and the level of GDP. According to the results of the study, a rating of the EU countries and Russia was formed in terms of housing affordability.

The Effects of Quantitative Easing Announcements on the Mortgage Market: An Event Study Approach

This paper uses event study analysis to estimate the impact of the United States Federal Reserve Bank’s (Fed) quantitative easing (QE) announcements on the mortgage market during the zero lower bound (ZLB) period. A total of 35 QE announcements are identified and their effects are evaluated. The best-fitting integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (IGARCH) model with skewed t distribution is used to measure the QE announcement effects on daily changes of the 30-year mortgage rate, the 30-year Treasury rate and the spread between them. Announcements suggesting the start of a new round of QE reduced the mortgage rate tremendously, while the effects of further news diminished. Announcements of an increase in mortgage-backed security purchases decreased the mortgage rate more than the Treasury rate and reduced the credit risk of holding mortgage securities over Treasury securities. The delayed effects of QE announcements on the mortgage rate were less than short-run effects but persistent. We also find that the previous literature overestimates QE effects on interest rates in general.