Acceleration Factors and Life Predictions

Acceleration factors (AF) are key to designing an effective accelerated life test (ALT). They represent the ratio of the time in field to the time in test for a particular event to occur (typically a failure event related to a specific failure mechanism). Time to failure for a device generally correlates with the amount of stress applied (the higher the stress, the quicker the device will fail), and failure models exist to mathematically define that correlation for various failure mechanisms. This allows for use of a higher stress in test than in the field, thereby providing an acceleration factor that shortens the time in test to demonstrate a failure-free time period. ALT can take the form of qualitative or quantitative testing. The latter is used to determine the life characteristics of the device with some reliability and confidence level. Usage rate acceleration and higher stress acceleration can be used. It is important to consider the design limits of the device based on its specification and material properties, and limit the stress levels in test so as not to induce failure mechanisms that the device would not otherwise have experienced in the field. ALT results are used to make life predictions for the device tested. With no failures, the test results demonstrate the required reliability and confidence level metrics for the failure mechanism of interest. With several failures, a reliability software tool can be used with the appropriate analysis method, rank method, and confidence bounds method chosen in order to extrapolate to an expected life in test. The equivalent field life is based on multiplying the expected life in test by the AF. If the field stress and/or test stress are not constant, there are multiple acceleration factors to utilize. As a result, an equivalent acceleration factor needs to be calculated and used as the AF when predicting equivalent field life.

Reliability-Equivalent Field Reference Usage Level When Both Field Usage and Usage to Failure are Random

This paper provides a practical engineering insight for product reliability design when both the field usage and usage to failure (life or strength) are a random variable. Especially, what percentile for the usage should one use in order to meet the same level of population reliability target.

Radar Detection-Based Modeling in a Blast Furnace: A Prediction Model of Burden Surface Descent Speed

The distribution of burden layers is a vital factor that affects the production of a blast furnace. Radars are advanced instruments that can provide the detection results of the burden surface shape inside a blast furnace in real time. To better estimate the burden layer thicknesses through improving the prediction accuracy of the burden descent during charging periods, an innovative data-driven model for predicting the distribution of the burden surface descent speed is proposed. The data adopted were from the detection results of an operating blast furnace, collected using a mechanical swing radar system. Under a kinematic continuum modeling mechanism, the proposed model adopts a linear combination of Gaussian radial basis functions to approximate the equivalent field of burden descent speed along the burden surface radius. A proof of the existence and uniqueness of the prediction solution is given to guarantee that the predicted radial profile of the burden surface can always be calculated numerically. Compared with the plain data-driven descriptive model, the proposed model has the ability to better characterize the variability in the radial distribution of burden descent speed. In addition, the proposed model provides prediction results of higher accuracy for both the future surface shape and descent speed distribution.

Eliminating incident subtraction in diffraction tomography

Diffraction tomography is a powerful algorithm for producing high-resolution quantitative reconstructions across a wide range of applications. A major drawback of the method is that it operates on the scattered field, which cannot generally be directly measured, but must instead be calculated by subtracting the incident field, i.e. the equivalent field with no scatterer present. Unfortunately, often the incident field is not measurable and hence must be estimated, causing errors. This paper highlights an important, but not widely recognized, result: for particular widely used formulations of the algorithm, the subtraction of the incident field is unnecessary, and the algorithm can actually be applied directly to measured signals. The theory behind this is derived, showing that the incident field will vanish under far-field conditions, and the result is demonstrated in practice. Tests with subsampled arrays show that aliasing artefacts can appear, but can be removed with a filter at the expense of resolution. The incident field also has no effect for a variety of array configurations tested. Finally, the performance in the presence of both correlated and uncorrelated errors is confirmed, in all cases demonstrating that the incident field has a negligible effect on the final reconstruction.

Comparative efficacy of levonorgestrel and deslorelin contraceptive implants in free-ranging eastern grey kangaroos (Macropus giganteus)

Context Fertility control of females with levonorgestrel or deslorelin implants shows promise for managing populations of overabundant eastern grey kangaroos (Macropus giganteus). Although these implants have been tested separately in captive and free-ranging kangaroos, there has been no direct comparison under equivalent field conditions. Aims We investigated the long-term efficacy of levonorgestrel and deslorelin implants, together with the cost of treatment, ease of administration, and the welfare of the animals, in a side-by-side trial under realistic management conditions. Methods We captured 65 adult female kangaroos over 11 days at a golf course in Anglesea, Victoria, Australia. We assigned each female to one of the following three experimental groups: levonorgestrel (210 mg, n = 18), deslorelin (9.4 mg, n = 24) or procedural control (n = 23). We monitored reproductive success for 8 years, by observing young in the pouch in winter and spring. Key results Natural fertility was high; in most years, less than 20% of control females failed to reproduce. For deslorelin-treated females, the odds of failing to reproduce were four times higher than for the control group; for levonorgestrel-treated females, these odds were 74 times higher. Deslorelin was ineffective after 3 years, whereas levonorgestrel was effective for at least 5 years. Conclusions Levonorgestrel was markedly superior in efficacy, as shown by a stronger contraceptive effect persisting for longer. In other respects, the two implants were comparable, being similar in cost and ease of delivery, and equally safe. Implications Only levonorgestrel implants fulfill their promise for non-lethal, long-term control of kangaroo populations. Deslorelin implants cannot be recommended for this purpose.