scholarly journals Predicting Seasonal Performance in Professional Sport: A 30-Year Analysis of Sports Illustrated Predictions

Sports ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 163
Author(s):  
Justine Jones ◽  
Kathryn Johnston ◽  
Lou Farah ◽  
Joseph Baker

In 2017, Sports Illustrated (SI) made headlines when their remarkable prediction from 2014 that the Houston Astros (a team in one of the lowest Major League Baseball divisional rankings) would win the World Series, came true. The less-publicised story was that in 2017, SI predicted the Los Angeles Dodgers to win the Major League Baseball (MLB) title. Assessing the forecasting accuracy of experts is critical as it explores the difficulty and limitations of forecasts and can help illuminate how predictions may shape sociocultural notions of sport in society. To thoroughly investigate SI’s forecasting record, predictions were collected from the four major North American sporting leagues (the National Football League, National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, and National Hockey League) over the last 30 years (1988–2018). Kruskal–Wallis H Tests and Mann–Whitney U Tests were used to evaluate the absolute and relative accuracy of predictions. Results indicated that SI had the greatest predictive accuracy in the National Basketball Association and was significantly more likely to predict divisional winners compared to conference and league champions. Future work in this area may seek to examine multiple media outlets to gain a more comprehensive perspective on forecasting accuracy in sport.

2010 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 72-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul G. Schempp ◽  
Bryan A. McCullick ◽  
Matthew A. Grant ◽  
Cornell Foo ◽  
Kelly Wieser

The purpose of this study was to analyze the relationship between coaches’ professional playing experience and their professional coaching success. The sample (n = 134) included coaches who had the equivalent of three full seasons of head coaching experience in either Major League Baseball (MLB) (n = 46), the National Basketball Association (NBA) (n = 38) or the National Football League (NFL) (n = 50) as determined by the total number of games coached between the years 1997-2007. ANOVAs revealed no significant differences between coaches with more or less professional playing experience and professional coaching success as determined by professional winning percentage. Further, no significant relationship was found between professional playing experience and professional coaching success in MLB (r = -0.16), NBA (r = -0.05) or NFL (r = 0.00). It was concluded that professional playing experience was not a predictor of professional level coaching success. These findings support the notion that sources of knowledge other than playing experience may be necessary and useful in developing coaching expertise.


2020 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 199-213
Author(s):  
Ryan Sliwak ◽  
Sandra Lee ◽  
Noelany Pelc

The prevalence of domestic violence in the sports community continues to be a controversial topic of discussion. The conversation that surrounds domestic violence and athletes often occurs through a sports-only lens. Policies have been implemented by the various professional leagues, such as the Major League Baseball (MLB), National Basketball Association (NBA), and National Football League (NFL), to combat numerous incidents of domestic violence. Policies vary for each respective league. Discussion of domestic violence in sport has barely scratched the surface of identifying the complexity of the ethical dilemmas that psychologists may encounter. Three of these dilemmas are identified and discussed here: mandated treatment, confidentiality, and informed consent.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 232596712110088
Author(s):  
Ryan L. Crotin ◽  
Toshimasa Yanai ◽  
Peter Chalmers ◽  
Kenneth B. Smale ◽  
Brandon J. Erickson ◽  
...  

Background: There has been minimal research investigating injury and pitching performance differences between Major League Baseball (MLB) and other professional leagues. Purpose/Hypothesis: This 2-team comparison between MLB and Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) involved affiliated players over 5 years. We hypothesized that teams would differ in the injury incidence, mechanism of injury, pitch velocity, and pitch type usage. Study Design: Descriptive epidemiology study. Methods: Between 2015 and 2019, pitching data as well as injury statistics for the highest level and minor league affiliates of the Los Angeles Angels (MLB) and the Hiroshima Toyo Carp (NPB) were reviewed for significant differences in the injury prevalence, injury type, mechanism of injury, and days missed. In total, 3781 MLB and 371 NPB injuries were studied. Results: MLB-affiliated players were significantly younger, taller, and heavier ( P < .001) than were NPB-affiliated players. MLB-affiliated pitchers threw faster than did their NPB counterparts ( P = .026). MLB minor league pitchers threw more curveballs than did NPB minor league pitchers ( P = .004), and MLB minor league relief pitchers threw more sliders than did NPB minor league relief pitchers ( P = .02). The MLB team had a 3.7-fold higher incidence of injuries versus the NPB team (0.030 vs 0.008 injuries per player-game, respectively) as well as more repeat injuries, with fewer days missed per injury (15.8 ± 54.7 vs 36.2 ± 55.1 days, respectively; P < .001). The MLB team also had a higher percentage of injuries that were throwing related ( P < .001), were contact related ( P < .001), and occurred outside of competition ( P < .001) compared with the NPB team. Conclusion: This is the first empirical study examining injury trends and pitching characteristics between MLB and NPB athletes. MLB-affiliated pitchers threw faster and relied more on breaking pitches in comparison with NPB-affiliated pitchers. From injury data, MLB players were younger, taller, and heavier with a higher percentage of throwing-related injuries, contact injuries, and injuries sustained outside of competition. Overall, the MLB team indicated a 3.7-fold higher rate of reported injuries with fewer days missed per injury than did the NPB team. Competitive conditions are distinctly different between MLB and NPB, and thus, more extensive research collaborations in the future can identify best practices to advance health and performance for both leagues.


Author(s):  
Kevin Snyder ◽  
Michael Lopez

AbstractPrior studies of referee behavior focus on identifying a bias in when certain calls are made [Kovash, Kenneth, & Levitt, Steven (2009). “Professionals do not play minimax: evidence from Major League Baseball and the National Football League (No. w15347).” National Bureau of Economic Research; Rosen, Peter A. and Rick L. Wilson. 2007. “An Analysis of the Defense First Strategy in College Football Overtime Games.”


2014 ◽  
pp. 711-730
Author(s):  
Jimmy Sanderson

This chapter explores how rookie athletes in Major League Baseball (MLB), the National Basketball Association (NBA), National Football League (NFL), and National Hockey League (NHL), used Twitter as an identity expression tool. A representative sample of tweets from athletes selected in the first round of the 2011 amateur draft of each sports league was selected for analysis. Results revealed that identity manifested in the following ways: (a) Athletes as dedicated workers; (b) Athletes as pop culture consumers; (c) Athletes as sports fans; (d) Athletes as motivators; (e) Athletes as information seekers; and (f) Athletes as everyday people. Through social media, athletes can more actively and diversely assert their identity. This action fosters identification, liking, and parasocial interaction with fans as athletes appear more approachable and similar. The ability to construct and disseminate a variety of identities holds important implications for athletes, which are discussed in the concluding section of the chapter.


Author(s):  
David George Surdam

This chapter focuses on the Congressional hearings conducted in 1982 and 1984–1985 to address the issue of franchise relocation. It first considers the so-called community protection acts that were introduced during the early 1980s in the wake of franchise relocations in the National Football League (NFL) and the lingering ill-will triggered by the expansion Washington Senators' move to Texas. It then looks at the legal wrangling between the NFL and Al Davis over his relocation of the Oakland Raiders to Los Angeles, along with legislators' push for franchise expansion and their doubts about revenue sharing in the NFL and Major League Baseball (MLB). It also examines the United States Football League's (USFL) antitrust suit against the NFL accusing it of being an illegal monopoly and using predatory tactics to thwart the USFL.


Author(s):  
David George Surdam

This chapter examines the issues surrounding player draft in professional sports leagues. During the postwar era, baseball officials and players often mentioned free agents. Unlike the free agents of our era, however, these players were talented amateur players. Indeed, high school and college players constituted the remaining vestige of a free market for baseball labor during the postwar era. The owners quickly discovered that this free market for labor was costly and made attempts to curb spending on amateur players, sparking allegations of cheating that led to distrust among them. This chapter first considers the creation of the amateur draft in Major League Baseball (MLB) before discussing the reverse-order draft in the National Football League (NFL) and the player draft in the National Basketball Association (NBA). It concludes with an assessment of the impact of the draft on owners and players.


2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-117 ◽  
Author(s):  
John T. Holden

In 2006, Congress passed the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act. Contained within the finance and banking statute designed to curb the ability of gambling websites to process payments was an exemption for certain forms of fantasy sports games. The so-called fantasy sports exemption was widely misperceived as a blanket exemption legalizing all compliant fantasy sports games, this proved to be false as various state attorney generals, beginning in 2015, began to examine whether daily fantasy sports games were compliant with state gambling laws. This brought renewed focus to the statute, which was often credited with inspiring the daily fantasy sports boom. This paper examines the origins of the inclusion of the fantasy sports exemption in proposed statutes pre-dating the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act and examines the archival materials associated with Senator Richard Bryan, who introduced the fantasy sports exemption, and proposes that the fantasy sports amendment may have been included to broach First Amendment concerns rather than to appease the interests of the National Football League or Major League Baseball, as has been suggested previously.


Author(s):  
David George Surdam

This chapter examines the issue of franchise relocation. Legislators had two main concerns throughout the series of hearings: to procure teams for their constituents while avoiding losing teams via relocation. The legislators' concerns were imbued with an element of reality, at least. Cities with multiple Major League Baseball (MLB) teams usually had one team that was struggling, and legislators held a different attitude to such teams relocating than they would with regard to later relocations of prosperous teams. This chapter first considers three options for acquiring a big-league team: purchase an existing team, hope for an expansion team in an established league, or enter a team into a new league. It then discusses the economics of franchise relocations, along with the early histories of franchise turnovers in professional sports leagues, including the National Football League (NFL) and its predecessor, the American Professional Football Association. It also looks at Columbia Broadcasting System's (CBS) purchase of the New York Yankees during the 1964 season that sparked fears of an unfair alliance.


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