A Hybrid LSTM-CPS Approach for Long-Term Prediction of Train Delays in Multivariate Time Series

In many big cities, train delays are among the most complained-about events by the public. Although various models have been proposed for train delay prediction, prior studies on both primary and secondary train delay prediction are limited in number. Recent advances in deep learning approaches and increasing availability of various data sources has created new opportunities for more efficient and accurate train delay prediction. In this study, we propose a hybrid deep learning solution by integrating long short-term memory (LSTM) and Critical Point Search (CPS). LSTM deals with long-term prediction tasks of trains’ running time and dwell time, while CPS uses predicted values with a nominal timetable to identify primary and secondary delays based on the delay causes, run-time delay, and dwell time delay. To validate the model and analyse its performance, we compare the standard LSTM with the proposed hybrid model. The results demonstrate that new variants outperform the standard LSTM, based on predicting time steps of dwell time feature. The experiment results also showed many irregularities of historical trends, which draws attention for further research.

Machine Learning Algorithm for Delay Prediction in IoT and Tactile Internet

The next-generation cellular systems, including fifth-generation cellular systems (5G), are empowered with the recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and other recent paradigms. The internet of things (IoT) and the tactile internet are paradigms that can be empowered with AI solutions and integrated with 5G systems to deliver novel services that impact the future. Machine learning technologies (ML) can understand examples of nonlinearity from the environment and are suitable for network traffic prediction. Network traffic prediction is one of the most active research areas that integrates AI with information networks. Traffic prediction is an integral approach to ensure security, reliability, and quality of service (QoS) requirements. Nowadays, it can be used in various applications, such as network monitoring, resource management, congestion control, network bandwidth allocation, network intrusion detection, etc. This paper performs time series prediction for IoT and tactile internet delays, using the k-step-ahead prediction approach with nonlinear autoregressive with external input (NARX)-enabled recurrent neural network (RNN). The ML was trained with four different training functions: Bayesian regularization backpropagation (Trainbr), Levenberg–Marquardt backpropagation (Trainlm), conjugate gradient backpropagation with Fletcher–Reeves updates (Traincgf), and the resilient backpropagation algorithm (Trainrp). The accuracy of the predicted delay was measured using three functions based on ML: mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).