Bias and error in modelling thermochronometric data: resolving a potential increase in Plio-Pleistocene erosion rate

Thermochronometry provides one of few methods to quantify rock exhumation rate and history, including potential changes in exhumation rate. Thermochronometric ages can resolve rates, accelerations, and complex histories by exploiting different closure temperatures and path lengths using data distributed in elevation. We investigate how the resolution of an exhumation history is determined by the distribution of ages and their closure temperatures through an error analysis of the exhumation history problem. We define the sources of error, defined in terms of resolution, model error and methodological bias in the inverse method used by Herman et al. (2013) which combines data with different closure temperatures and elevations. The error analysis provides a series of tests addressing the various types of bias, including addressing criticism that there is a tendency of thermochronometric data to produce a false inference of faster erosion rates towards the present day because of a spatial correlation bias. Tests based on synthetic data demonstrate that the inverse method used by Herman et al. (2013) has no methodological or model bias towards increasing erosion rates. We do find significant resolution errors with sparse data, but these errors are not systematic, tending rather to leave inferred erosion rates at or near a Bayesian prior. To explain the difference in conclusions between our analysis and that of other work, we examine other approaches and find that previously published model tests contained an error in the geotherm calculation, resulting in an incorrect age prediction. Our reanalysis and interpretation show that the original results of Herman et al. (2013) are correctly calculated and presented, with no evidence for a systematic bias.

New constraints on the exhumation history of the western Tauern Window (European Alps) from thermochronology, thermokinematic modeling, and topographic analysis

The Brenner normal fault bounds the Tauern Window to the west and accommodated a significant portion of the orogen-parallel extension in the Eastern Alps. Here, we use zircon (U–Th)/He, apatite fission track, and apatite (U–Th)/He dating, thermokinematic modeling, and a topographic analysis to constrain the exhumation history of the western Tauern Window in the footwall of the Brenner fault. ZHe ages from an E–W profile (parallel to the slip direction of the fault) decrease westwards from ~ 11 to ~ 8 Ma and suggest a fault-slip rate of 3.9 ± 0.9 km/Myr, whereas AFT and AHe ages show no spatial trends. ZHe and AFT ages from an elevation profile indicate apparent exhumation rates of 1.1 ± 0.7 and 1.0 ± 1.3 km/Myr, respectively, whereas the AHe ages are again spatially invariant. Most of the thermochronological ages are well predicted by a thermokinematic model with a normal fault that slips at a rate of 4.2 km/Myr between ~ 19 and ~ 9 Ma and produces 35 ± 10 km of extension. The modeling reveals that the spatially invariant AHe ages are caused by heat advection due to faulting and posttectonic thermal relaxation. The enigmatic increase of K–Ar phengite and biotite ages towards the Brenner fault is caused by heat conduction from the hot footwall to the cooler hanging wall. Topographic profiles across an N–S valley in the fault footwall indicate 1000 ± 300 m of erosion after faulting ceased, which agrees with the results of our thermokinematic model. Valley incision explains why the Brenner fault is located on the western valley shoulder and not at the valley bottom. We conclude that the ability of thermokinematic models to quantify heat transfer by rock advection and conduction is crucial for interpreting cooling ages from extensional fault systems.

Thermochronological constraints on the exhumation history of the Carboniferous Katebasu gold deposit, western Tianshan Gold Belt, NW China

The western Tianshan Gold Belt hosts numerous giant and large gold deposits that have been formed during the late Paleozoic amalgamation of the Tianshan orogen. However, little is known about their exhumation histories during the Mesozoic to Cenozoic intracontinental evolution of the orogen. The Carboniferous Katebasu orogenic gold deposit in northwestern China is a new gold discovery within the western Tianshan Gold Belt, and it shares many similarities with other orogenic gold deposits in the belt. In this contribution, new 40Ar/39Ar and (U-Th)/He ages were combined with previous geochronology and numerical modeling to quantify its post-Carboniferous cooling and exhumation history. The results revealed a three-phase cooling history and two phases of post-mineralization exhumation. We suggest that a large volume (∼0.8 km) of the mineralized roof parts of the Katebasu deposit might have been removed during uplift and erosion, whereas significant ore reserves could still exist at depth. The large erosion depth of the Katebasu gold deposit in the Nalati Range of the Chinese western Tianshan also signifies that shallow-emplaced porphyry and epithermal systems that formed prior to Permo-Triassic uplift might have been largely eroded.