scholarly journals Bias and error in modelling thermochronometric data: resolving a potential increase in Plio-Pleistocene erosion rate

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 1153-1221
Author(s):  
Sean D. Willett ◽  
Frédéric Herman ◽  
Matthew Fox ◽  
Nadja Stalder ◽  
Todd A. Ehlers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Error Analysis ◽  
Inverse Method ◽  
Synthetic Data ◽  
Systematic Bias ◽  
Exhumation Rate ◽  
Erosion Rates ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Path Lengths ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Exhumation History

Abstract. Thermochronometry provides one of few methods to quantify rock exhumation rate and history, including potential changes in exhumation rate. Thermochronometric ages can resolve rates, accelerations, and complex histories by exploiting different closure temperatures and path lengths using data distributed in elevation. We investigate how the resolution of an exhumation history is determined by the distribution of ages and their closure temperatures through an error analysis of the exhumation history problem. We define the sources of error, defined in terms of resolution, model error and methodological bias in the inverse method used by Herman et al. (2013) which combines data with different closure temperatures and elevations. The error analysis provides a series of tests addressing the various types of bias, including addressing criticism that there is a tendency of thermochronometric data to produce a false inference of faster erosion rates towards the present day because of a spatial correlation bias. Tests based on synthetic data demonstrate that the inverse method used by Herman et al. (2013) has no methodological or model bias towards increasing erosion rates. We do find significant resolution errors with sparse data, but these errors are not systematic, tending rather to leave inferred erosion rates at or near a Bayesian prior. To explain the difference in conclusions between our analysis and that of other work, we examine other approaches and find that previously published model tests contained an error in the geotherm calculation, resulting in an incorrect age prediction. Our reanalysis and interpretation show that the original results of Herman et al. (2013) are correctly calculated and presented, with no evidence for a systematic bias.

scholarly journals Bias and error in modelling thermochronometric data: resolving a potential increase in Plio-Pleistocene erosion rate

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean D. Willett ◽  
Frederic Herman ◽  
Matthew Fox ◽  
Nadja Stalder ◽  
Todd A. Ehlers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Error Analysis ◽  
Inverse Method ◽  
Synthetic Data ◽  
Systematic Bias ◽  
Exhumation Rate ◽  
Erosion Rates ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Path Lengths ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Exhumation History

Abstract. Thermochronometry provides one of few methods to quantify rock exhumation rate and history, including potential changes in exhumation rate. Thermochronometric ages can resolve rates, accelerations, and complex histories by exploiting different closure temperatures and path lengths using data distributed in elevation. We investigate how the resolution of an exhumation history is determined by the distribution of ages and their closure temperatures through an error analysis of the exhumation history problem. We define the sources of error, defined in terms of resolution, model error and methodological bias in the inverse method used by Herman et al. (2013) which combines data with different closure temperatures and elevations. The error analysis provides a series of tests addressing the various types of bias, including addressing criticism that there is a tendency of thermochronometric data to produce a false inference of faster erosion rates towards the present day because of a spatial correlation bias (Schildgen et al., 2018). Tests based on synthetic data demonstrate that the inverse method used by Herman et al. (2013) has no methodological or model bias towards increasing erosion rates. We do find significant resolution errors with sparse data, but these errors are not systematic, tending rather to leave inferred erosion rates at or near a Bayesian prior. To explain the difference in conclusions between our analysis and that of Schildgen et al. (2018), we examine their paper and find that their model tests used an incorrect geotherm calculation, invalidating their models. We also found that Schildgen et al. (2018) applied a biased operator to the results of Herman et al. (2013) thereby distorting the original results producing a bias that was falsely attributed to the original inverse model. Our reanalysis and interpretation show that the original results of Herman et al. (2013) are correct and there is no evidence for a systematic bias.

scholarly journals Soil erosion by snow gliding – a first quantification attempt in a subalpine area in Switzerland

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 3763-3775 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Meusburger ◽  
G. Leitinger ◽  
L. Mabit ◽  
M. H. Mueller ◽  
A. Walter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
Soil Loss ◽  
Water Erosion ◽  
Erosion Rates ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Snow Gliding

Abstract. Snow processes might be one important driver of soil erosion in Alpine grasslands and thus the unknown variable when erosion modelling is attempted. The aim of this study is to assess the importance of snow gliding as a soil erosion agent for four different land use/land cover types in a subalpine area in Switzerland. We used three different approaches to estimate soil erosion rates: sediment yield measurements in snow glide depositions, the fallout radionuclide 137Cs and modelling with the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). RUSLE permits the evaluation of soil loss by water erosion, the 137Cs method integrates soil loss due to all erosion agents involved, and the measurement of snow glide deposition sediment yield can be directly related to snow-glide-induced erosion. Further, cumulative snow glide distance was measured for the sites in the winter of 2009/2010 and modelled for the surrounding area and long-term average winter precipitation (1959–2010) with the spatial snow glide model (SSGM). Measured snow glide distance confirmed the presence of snow gliding and ranged from 2 to 189 cm, with lower values on the north-facing slopes. We observed a reduction of snow glide distance with increasing surface roughness of the vegetation, which is an important information with respect to conservation planning and expected and ongoing land use changes in the Alps. Snow glide erosion estimated from the snow glide depositions was highly variable with values ranging from 0.03 to 22.9 t ha−1 yr−1 in the winter of 2012/2013. For sites affected by snow glide deposition, a mean erosion rate of 8.4 t ha−1 yr−1 was found. The difference in long-term erosion rates determined with RUSLE and 137Cs confirms the constant influence of snow-glide-induced erosion, since a large difference (lower proportion of water erosion compared to total net erosion) was observed for sites with high snow glide rates and vice versa. Moreover, the difference between RUSLE and 137Cs erosion rates was related to the measured snow glide distance (R2 = 0.64; p < 0.005) and to the snow deposition sediment yields (R2 = 0.39; p = 0.13). The SSGM reproduced the relative difference of the measured snow glide values under different land uses and land cover types. The resulting map highlighted the relevance of snow gliding for large parts of the investigated area. Based on these results, we conclude that snow gliding appears to be a crucial and non-negligible process impacting soil erosion patterns and magnitude in subalpine areas with similar topographic and climatic conditions.

scholarly journals Long-Term Observations of Microwave Brightness Temperatures over a Metropolitan Area: Comparison of Radiometric Data and Spectra Simulated with the Use of Radiosonde Measurements

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 2061
Author(s):  
Mikhail V. Belikovich ◽  
Mikhail Yu. Kulikov ◽  
Dmitry S. Makarov ◽  
Natalya K. Skalyga ◽  
Vitaly G. Ryskin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Transfer ◽  
Elevation Angle ◽  
Radiative Transfer Model ◽  
Transfer Model ◽  
Systematic Bias ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Absorption Model ◽  
60 Ghz ◽  
Error Budget ◽  
The Difference

Ground-based microwave radiometers are increasingly used in operational meteorology and nowcasting. These instruments continuously measure the spectra of downwelling atmospheric radiation in the range 20–60 GHz used for the retrieval of tropospheric temperature and water vapor profiles. Spectroscopic uncertainty is an important part of the retrieval error budget, as it leads to systematic bias. In this study, we analyze the difference between observed and simulated microwave spectra obtained from more than four years of microwave and radiosonde observations over Nizhny Novgorod (56.2° N, 44° E). We focus on zenith-measured and elevation-scanning data in clear-sky conditions. The simulated spectra are calculated by a radiative transfer model with the use of radiosonde profiles and different absorption models, corresponding to the latest spectroscopy research. In the case of zenith-measurements, we found a systematic bias (up to ~2 K) of simulated spectra at 51–54 GHz. The sign of bias depends on the absorption model. A thorough investigation of the error budget points to a spectroscopic nature of the observed differences. The dependence of the results on the elevation angle and absorption model can be explained by the basic properties of radiative transfer and by cloud contamination at elevation angles.

The Impact of Customer Loyalty and Restaurant Sanitation Grades on Revisit Intention and the Importance of Narrative Information: The Case of New York Restaurant Sanitation Grading System

2017 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 275-284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min Gyung Kim ◽  
Hyunjoo Yang ◽  
Anna S. Mattila
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Customer Loyalty ◽  
York City ◽  
Letter Grades ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Revisit Intentions ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Loyal Customers

New York City launched a restaurant sanitation letter grade system in 2010. We evaluate the impact of customer loyalty on restaurant revisit intentions after exposure to a sanitation grade alone, and after exposure to a sanitation grade plus narrative information about sanitation violations (e.g., presence of rats). We use a 2 (loyalty: high or low) × 4 (sanitation grade: A, B, C, or pending) between-subjects full factorial design to test the hypotheses using data from 547 participants recruited from Amazon MTurk who reside in the New York City area. Our study yields three findings. First, loyal customers exhibit higher intentions to revisit restaurants than non-loyal customers, regardless of sanitation letter grades. Second, the difference in revisit intentions between loyal and non-loyal customers is higher when sanitation grades are poorer. Finally, loyal customers are less sensitive to narrative information about sanitation violations.

Dimensional disparity between duplex and intravascular ultrasound in the assessment of iliac vein stenosis

2021 ◽  
pp. 1358863X2110036
Author(s):  
Seshadri Raju ◽  
William Walker ◽  
Chandler Noel ◽  
Riley Kuykendall ◽  
Thomas Powell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Intravascular Ultrasound ◽  
Venous Pressure ◽  
Iliac Vein ◽  
Common Iliac Vein ◽  
Systematic Bias ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
External Iliac Vein ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Vein Stenosis ◽  
Linear Regressions

Minimum iliac vein caliber necessary to maintain normal peripheral venous pressure can be derived by the Poiseuille equation. Duplex was compared to intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) in the assessment of iliac vein stenosis in this single center retrospective study. Parallel IVUS and duplex caliber data for common iliac vein (CIV) and external iliac vein (EIV) in 382 limbs were separately compared. One or both segments were stenotic by IVUS criteria in 213 limbs. Neither segment was stenotic by IVUS in 22 limbs. Bland–Altman analyses and Passing–Bablok linear regressions were used. Duplex calibers were dimensionally smaller than corresponding IVUS images of CIV and EIV segments in Bland–Altman comparison by a mean of 54 mm2 and 34 mm2, respectively. Passing–Bablok regression suggested the difference was due to a systematic bias and not proportional. Duplex yields a smaller cross-sectional image of CIV and EIV compared to IVUS. Duplex is not a reliable diagnostic test for iliac vein stenosis.

Comparing two definitions of ethnicity for identifying young persons at risk for chlamydia

2011 ◽  
Vol 140 (5) ◽  
pp. 951-958 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. HAASNOOT ◽  
F. D. H. KOEDIJK ◽  
E. L. M. OP DE COUL ◽  
H. M. GÖTZ ◽  
M. A. B. VAN DER SANDE ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Chlamydia Infection ◽  
Chlamydia Screening ◽  
Country Of Birth ◽  
Regression Modelling ◽  
Explained Variation ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Logistic Regression Modelling

SUMMARYEthnic disparities in chlamydia infections in The Netherlands were assessed, in order to compare two definitions of ethnicity: ethnicity based on country of birth and self-defined ethnicity. Chlamydia positivity in persons aged 16–29 years was investigated using data from the first round of the Chlamydia Screening Implementation (CSI, 2008–2009) and surveillance data from STI centres (2009). Logistic regression modelling showed that being an immigrant was associated with chlamydia positivity in both CSI [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2·3, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2·0–2·6] and STI centres (aOR 1·4, 95% CI 1·3–1·5). In both settings, 60% of immigrants defined themselves as Dutch. Despite the difference, classification by self-defined ethnicity resulted in similar associations between (non-Dutch) ethnicity and chlamydia positivity. However, ethnicity based on country of birth explained variation in chlamydia positivity better, and is objective and constant over time and therefore more useful for identifying young persons at higher risk for chlamydia infection.

POSTPARTUM AMENORRHOEA IN RURAL EASTERN UTTAR PRADESH, INDIA

1998 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 227-243
Author(s):  
K. N. S. YADAVA ◽  
S. K. JAIN
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Current Status Data ◽  
North India ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Survival Status ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Using Data

This paper calculates the mean duration of the postpartum amenorrhoea (PPA) and examines its demographic, and socioeconomic correlates in rural north India, using data collected through 'retrospective' (last but one child) as well as 'current status' (last child) reporting of the duration of PPA.The mean duration of PPA was higher in the current status than in the retrospective data;n the difference being statistically significant. However, for the same mothers who gave PPA information in both the data sets, the difference in mean duration of PPA was not statistically significant. The correlates were identical in both the data sets. The current status data were more complete in terms of the coverage, and perhaps less distorted by reporting errors caused by recall lapse.A positive relationship of the mean duration of PPA was found with longer breast-feeding, higher parity and age of mother at the birth of the child, and the survival status of the child. An inverse relationship was found with higher education of a woman, higher education of her husband and higher socioeconomic status of her household, these variables possibly acting as proxies for women's better nutritional status.

scholarly journals A Two-Stage Quality Control Method for 2-m Temperature Observations Using Biweight Means and a Progressive EOF Analysis

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (2) ◽  
pp. 798-808 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhifang Xu ◽  
Yi Wang ◽  
Guangzhou Fan
Keyword(s):  
Quality Control ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Control Process ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Systematic Bias ◽  
Eof Analysis ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Quality Control Method ◽  
Quality Control Process ◽  
The Difference

Abstract The relatively smooth terrain embedded in the numerical model creates an elevation difference against the actual terrain, which in turn makes the quality control of 2-m temperature difficult when forecast or analysis fields are utilized in the process. In this paper, a two-stage quality control method is proposed to address the quality control of 2-m temperature, using biweight means and a progressive EOF analysis. The study is made to improve the quality control of the observed 2-m temperature collected by China and its neighboring areas, based on the 6-h T639 analysis from December 2009 to February 2010. Results show that the proposed two-stage quality control method can secure the needed quality control better, compared with a regular EOF quality control process. The new method is, in particular, able to remove the data that are dotted with consecutive errors but showing small fluctuations. Meanwhile, compared with the lapse rate of temperature method, the biweight mean method is able to remove the systematic bias generated by the model. It turns out that such methods make the distributions of observation increments (the difference between observation and background) more Gaussian-like, which ensures the data quality after the quality control.

Heat Transfer Correlation for Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Flowing in Vertical Bare Tubes

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sahil Gupta ◽  
Eugene Saltanov ◽  
Igor Pioro
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transfer ◽  
Error Analysis ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Nuclear Reactor ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Transfer Coefficients ◽  
Data Points ◽  
Institute Of Technology ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Gen Iv

Canada among many other countries is in pursuit of developing next generation (Generation IV) nuclear-reactor concepts. One of the main objectives of Generation-IV concepts is to achieve high thermal efficiencies (45–50%). It has been proposed to make use of SuperCritical Fluids (SCFs) as the heat-transfer medium in such Gen IV reactor design concepts such as SuperCritical Water-cooled Reactor (SCWR). An important aspect towards development of SCF applications in novel Gen IV Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) designs is to understand the thermodynamic behavior and prediction of Heat Transfer Coefficients (HTCs) at supercritical (SC) conditions. To calculate forced convection HTCs for simple geometries, a number of empirical 1-D correlations have been proposed using dimensional analysis. These 1-D HTC correlations are developed by applying data-fitting techniques to a model equation with dimensionless terms and can be used for rudimentary calculations. Using similar statistical techniques three correlations were proposed by Gupta et al. [1] for Heat Transfer (HT) in SCCO2. These SCCO2 correlations were developed at the University of Ontario Institute of Technology (Canada) by using a large set of experimental SCCO2 data (∼4,000 data-points) obtained at the Chalk River Laboratories (CRL) AECL. These correlations predict HTC values with an accuracy of ±30% and wall temperatures with an accuracy of ±20% for the analyzed dataset. Since these correlations were developed using data from a single source - CRL (AECL), they can be limited in their range of applicability. To investigate the tangible applicability of these SCCO2 correlations it was imperative to perform a thorough error analysis by checking their results against a set of independent SCCO2 tube data. In this paper SCCO2 data are compiled from various sources and within various experimental flow conditions. HTC and wall-temperature values for these data points are calculated using updated correlations presented in [1] and compared to the experimental values. Error analysis is then shown for these datasets to obtain a sense of the applicability of these updated SCCO2 correlations.

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