Prediction of tropical cyclones by numerical models A review

ABSTRACT. This paper contains a review of some past and recent developments in cyclone track prediction problem by dynamical models. The early attempts aimed at predicting tropical cyclone motion by using simple barotropic models based on vertically integrated vorticity tendency equation. Barotropic models are still used operationally in some centres due to their simplicity. However, current emphasis is on advanced primitive equation models incorporating physical processes, like cumulus convection, which are necessary to account for a major component of the cyclone movement. An important aspect of cyclone prediction by dynamical models is prescription of a correctly analysed synthetic vortex in the initial fields for running a forecast model. Several approaches developed by various groups for generating synthetic vortex are discussed. Examples of some cases of track prediction by limited area model in IMD and by global models are illustrated.

The Intensification of Hurricane Maria 2017 in the Antilles

Environmental influences on Hurricane Maria in the Antilles Islands are analyzed at the large-scale (1–25 September) and at the meso-scale (17–20 September 2017). The storm intensified rapidly prior to landfall in Dominica, going from category 1 to 5 in 15 h. As the storm progressed toward Puerto Rico (PR), its NE flank entrained air from seas cooled by the earlier passage of two hurricanes, and strengthened on its SW flank. Operational model forecasts tended to delay intensification until west of the Antilles Islands, thus motivating two independent weather research and forecasting (WRF) simulations. These gave minimal track errors at 1- to 3-day lead time. The simulation for landfall at Dominica on 19 September 2017 showed that a static nest with 0.8 km resolution using a Holland-type synthetic vortex and Yonsei University (YSU)/Kain-Fritsch schemes performed better; with a track error of 8 km and intensity error of 10 m/s. Our PR-area simulation of central pressure lagged 30 hPa behind observation; and caught up with reality by landfall in PR. The simulated rainband structure corresponded with Cloudsat observations over PR. Maria’s intensification occurred in an area of thermodynamic gradients included cooler SST in the right side of the track, so operational models with right-track bias were late in predicting intensification. Category-2 forecasts prior to 18 September 2017 left many Antilles islanders unprepared for the disaster that ensued.

Detecting and tracking eddies in oceanic flow fields: a Lagrangian descriptor based on the modulus of vorticity

Since eddies play a major role in the dynamics of oceanic flows, it is of great interest to detect them and gain information about their tracks, their lifetimes and their shapes. We present a Lagrangian descriptor based on the modulus of vorticity to construct an eddy tracking tool. In our approach we denote an eddy as a rotating region in the flow possessing an eddy core corresponding to a local maximum of the Lagrangian descriptor and enclosed by pieces of manifolds of distinguished hyperbolic trajectories (eddy boundary). We test the performance of the eddy tracking tool based on this Lagrangian descriptor using an convection flow of four eddies, a synthetic vortex street and a velocity field of the western Baltic Sea. The results for eddy lifetime and eddy shape are compared to the results obtained with the Okubo–Weiss parameter, the modulus of vorticity and an eddy tracking tool used in oceanography. We show that the vorticity-based Lagrangian descriptor estimates lifetimes closer to the analytical results than any other method. Furthermore we demonstrate that eddy tracking based on this descriptor is robust with respect to certain types of noise, which makes it a suitable method for eddy detection in velocity fields obtained from observation.

Detecting and tracking eddies in oceanic flow fields: A vorticity based Euler-Lagrangian method

Since eddies play a major role in the dynamics of oceanic flows, it is of great interest to detect them and gain information about their tracks, their lifetimes and their shapes. We develop a vorticity based heuristic Euler-Lagrangian descriptor utilizing the idea of Lagrangian coherent structures. In our approach we define an eddy as a region around an elliptic fixed point (eddy core) surrounded by manifolds (eddy boundaries). We test the performance of an eddy tracking tool based on this Euler-Lagrangian descriptor using an convection flow of four eddies, a synthetic vortex street and an eddy seeded model. The results for eddy lifetime and eddy shape are compared to the results obtained with the Okubo-Weiss parameter, the modulus of vorticity and an eddy tracking tool used in oceanography. We show that the Euler-Lagrangian descriptor estimates lifetimes closer to the analytical results than any other method. Furthermore we demonstrate that eddy tracking based on this descriptor is robust with respect to certain types of noise which makes it a suitable tool for eddy detection in velocity fields obtained from observation.

The Use of a Vortex Insertion Technique to Simulate the Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Michael (2000)

On 19 October 2000, Hurricane Michael merged with an approaching baroclinic trough over the western North Atlantic Ocean south of Nova Scotia. As the hurricane moved over cooler sea surface temperatures (SSTs; less than 25°C), it intensified to category-2 intensity on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale [maximum sustained wind speeds of 44 m s−1 (85 kt)] while tapping energy from the baroclinic environment. The large “hybrid” storm made landfall on the south coast of Newfoundland with maximum sustained winds of 39 m s−1 (75 kt) causing moderate damage to coastal communities east of landfall. Hurricane Michael presented significant challenges to weather forecasters. The fundamental issue was determining which of two cyclones (a newly formed baroclinic low south of Nova Scotia or the hurricane) would become the dominant circulation center during the early stages of the extratropical transition (ET) process. Second, it was difficult to predict the intensity of the storm at landfall owing to competing factors: 1) decreasing SSTs conducive to weakening and 2) the approaching negatively tilted upper-level trough, favoring intensification. Numerical hindcast simulations using the limited-area Mesoscale Compressible Community model with synthetic vortex insertion (cyclone bogus) prior to the ET of Hurricane Michael led to a more realistic evolution of wind and pressure compared to running the model without vortex insertion. Specifically, the mesoscale model correctly simulates the hurricane as the dominant circulation center early in the transition process, versus the baroclinic low to its north, which was the favored development in the runs not employing vortex insertion. A suite of experiments is conducted to establish the sensitivity of the ET to various initial conditions, lateral driving fields, domain sizes, and model parameters. The resulting storm tracks and intensities fall within the range of the operational guidance, lending support to the possibility of improving numerical forecasts using synthetic vortex insertion prior to ET in such a model.

Evaluation of Operational Model Cyclone Structure Forecasts during Extratropical Transition

Cyclone structure is known to be directly linked to the sensible weather effects produced by the weather system. The extratropical transition (ET) process leads to immense changes in cyclone structure and therefore to changes in the associated weather experienced. Although structure is clearly an important cyclone characteristic, validation of cyclone structure forecasts in operational numerical models has not been previously performed. In this study, short-term (12–36 h) forecasts of cyclone structure from tropical genesis to the completion of ET are validated using fields from the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System and the NCEP Aviation model. The cyclone phase space (CPS) is used to quantify differences between forecast and analyzed storm structure, both on a point-by-point basis and through a cyclone-type-based comparison. This cyclone-type comparison exploits a previously defined breakdown of cyclone structure regimes in the CPS. The impacts of synthetic vortex insertion on the ensuing agreement between forecast and analyzed storm structure are explored. While the results show reasonable forecast skill for well-defined (i.e., nonhybrid) systems, cyclones in the process of ET are found to be poorly forecast, emphasizing the need for improved understanding and simulation of the structural changes experienced by ET cyclones.