scholarly journals Evaluation of Operational Model Cyclone Structure Forecasts during Extratropical Transition

2006 ◽  
Vol 134 (11) ◽  
pp. 3054-3072 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jenni L. Evans ◽  
Justin M. Arnott ◽  
Francesca Chiaromonte
Keyword(s):  
Phase Space ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Extratropical Transition ◽  
Weather System ◽  
Operational Model ◽  
Weather Effects ◽  
Synthetic Vortex

Abstract Cyclone structure is known to be directly linked to the sensible weather effects produced by the weather system. The extratropical transition (ET) process leads to immense changes in cyclone structure and therefore to changes in the associated weather experienced. Although structure is clearly an important cyclone characteristic, validation of cyclone structure forecasts in operational numerical models has not been previously performed. In this study, short-term (12–36 h) forecasts of cyclone structure from tropical genesis to the completion of ET are validated using fields from the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System and the NCEP Aviation model. The cyclone phase space (CPS) is used to quantify differences between forecast and analyzed storm structure, both on a point-by-point basis and through a cyclone-type-based comparison. This cyclone-type comparison exploits a previously defined breakdown of cyclone structure regimes in the CPS. The impacts of synthetic vortex insertion on the ensuing agreement between forecast and analyzed storm structure are explored. While the results show reasonable forecast skill for well-defined (i.e., nonhybrid) systems, cyclones in the process of ET are found to be poorly forecast, emphasizing the need for improved understanding and simulation of the structural changes experienced by ET cyclones.

scholarly journals Precipitation simulation of synoptic scale systems over western Himalayan region using Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) model

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (4) ◽  
pp. 471-480
Author(s):  
GIRISH SEMWAL ◽  
R. K. GIRI
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Himalayan Region ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Lateral Boundary ◽  
Weather System ◽  
Advanced Regional Prediction System ◽  
Western Himalayan Region ◽  
Lateral Boundary Conditions ◽  
Regional Prediction

Operational weather prediction over western Himalayan region is a challenging job due to scarcity of data and complex topography that interacts with approaching weather system. Accurate prediction of complex weather phenomena requires dense data network which is difficult to establish in mountain due to complex terrain and hostile weather conditions over Himalaya. The alternate method to overcome this problem is by ingesting three-dimensional meteorological variables from global model’s analysis and forecast values as initial and lateral boundary conditions in meso-scale numerical models. Simultaneously, data assimilation is a potential tool in which non-conventional [satellite, radar and Automatic Weather Station (AWS)] and conventional (surface and upper air observations) data are ingested in the numerical models to generate high resolution and accurate initial fields for the initialization of the mesoscale model. In the present study, Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) model has been used for the prediction of synoptic weather system known as Western Disturbance (WD) that affects the weather of western and central Himalaya during winter period (November – April).The ARPS model has been selected for this study because the model has its own objective analysis and quality control system. It has the capacity to ingest the satellite, Doppler weather radar data and other types of observations. Its assimilation system can also be used to overcome the problem of data scarcity in Himalayan region. In this study, initial and lateral boundary fields are taken from the T-80 spectral global model operationally used at National Centre for Medium Range Prediction (NCMRWF), Noida (UP), India. The global model’s analysis was taken as the initial condition and 24 hour’s interval forecasts as lateral boundary conditions. The model has been used for the simulation of few WDs for 96 hours (Four days). The comparison of ARPS simulation with T-80 forecast shows that the ARPS model could produce better results in respect of the circulation of WDs and hence it can be utilized for the operational weather prediction over the Indian region.  

Determination of a Consistent Time for the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Examination of Existing Methods for Finding “ET Time”

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (12) ◽  
pp. 4328-4343 ◽  
Author(s):  
David E. Kofron ◽  
Elizabeth A. Ritchie ◽  
J. Scott Tyo
Keyword(s):  
Phase Space ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Geopotential Height ◽  
Asymmetry Parameter ◽  
Complex Problem ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Threshold Values ◽  
Extratropical Transition

Abstract As a tropical cyclone moves poleward and interacts with the midlatitude circulation, the question of whether it will undergo extratropical transition (ET) and, if it does, whether it will reintensify or dissipate, is a complex problem. Several quantities have been proposed in previous studies to describe extratropical transition including frontogenesis, 500-hPa geopotential heights, and cyclone phase-space parameters. In this study, these parameters are explored for their utility in defining an ET time using the Navy’s Operational Global Assimilation and Prediction System gridded analyses. The 500-hPa geopotential heights and frontogenesis currently do not have objective numerical definitions. Therefore, this study attempts to establish and examine threshold values that may be used to objectively define the ET time. Cyclone phase space already has numerical threshold values that can be examined. Results show that the 500-hPa geopotential height open wave distinguishes 81 of 82 cases, but it fails to discriminate between transitioning ET and recurving non-ET cases and cannot be determined automatically. The 2D scalar frontogenesis distinguishes 77 of 82 cases but does not discriminate between transitioning ET and recurving non-ET cases. Finally, phase space successfully distinguishes 81 of 82 cases for the “ET time” defined by the asymmetry parameter but is only successful at capturing transitioning ET and recurving non-ET cases properly for 60 of 82 cases. All of the definitions are found to have disadvantages that preclude them from providing consistent guidance for when extratropical transition of a poleward-recurving tropical cyclone is occurring.

Short-Term Flood Prediction System

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Konrad Nering
Keyword(s):  
Flash Floods ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Flood Prediction ◽  
Full Operation

AbstractThis paper describes a fully functional short-term flood prediction system. Its effect has been tested on watershed of Lubieńka river in Małopolska. To use this system it must have a data set also described in this paper. A modification of the system to adopt for predicting flash floods was described. Full operation of the system is shown on example of real flood on Lubieńka river in June 2011.

Operational Model and its Validation with Drift Tests in Water Areas Around the Baltic Sea

1994 ◽  
Vol 29 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 293-308
Author(s):  
J. Koponen ◽  
M. Virtanen ◽  
H. Vepsä ◽  
E. Alasaarela
Keyword(s):  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Fast Response ◽  
Velocity Measurements ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Large Lakes ◽  
Operational Model ◽  
Water Currents ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Sensitivity Tests ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract Three-dimensional (3-D) mathematical models of water currents, transport, mixing, reaction kinetic, and interactions with bottom and air have been used in Finland regularly since 1982 and applied to about 40 cases in large lakes, inland seas and their coastal waters. In each case, model validity has been carefully tested with available flow velocity measurements, tracer studies and water quality observations. For operational use, i.e., for spill combatting and sea rescue, the models need fast response, proven validity and illustrative visualization. In 1987-90, validated models were implemented for operational use at five sea areas along the Finnish coast. Further validation was obtained in model applications from nine documented or arranged cases and from seven emergency situations. Sensitivity tests supplement short-term validation. In the Bothnian Sea, it was nescessary to start the calculation of water currents three days prior to the start of the experiment to reduce initial inaccuracies and to make the coastal transport estimates meaningful.

scholarly journals Development of the reproduction number from coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 case data in Germany and implications for political measures

BMC Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sahamoddin Khailaie ◽  
Tanmay Mitra ◽  
Arnab Bandyopadhyay ◽  
Marta Schips ◽  
Pietro Mascheroni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Structural Changes ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
National Level ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Robert Koch Institute ◽  
Federal States

Abstract Background SARS-CoV-2 has induced a worldwide pandemic and subsequent non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the spread of the virus. As in many countries, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany has led to a consecutive roll-out of different NPIs. As these NPIs have (largely unknown) adverse effects, targeting them precisely and monitoring their effectiveness are essential. We developed a compartmental infection dynamics model with specific features of SARS-CoV-2 that allows daily estimation of a time-varying reproduction number and published this information openly since the beginning of April 2020. Here, we present the transmission dynamics in Germany over time to understand the effect of NPIs and allow adaptive forecasts of the epidemic progression. Methods We used a data-driven estimation of the evolution of the reproduction number for viral spreading in Germany as well as in all its federal states using our model. Using parameter estimates from literature and, alternatively, with parameters derived from a fit to the initial phase of COVID-19 spread in different regions of Italy, the model was optimized to fit data from the Robert Koch Institute. Results The time-varying reproduction number (Rt) in Germany decreased to <1 in early April 2020, 2–3 weeks after the implementation of NPIs. Partial release of NPIs both nationally and on federal state level correlated with moderate increases in Rt until August 2020. Implications of state-specific Rt on other states and on national level are characterized. Retrospective evaluation of the model shows excellent agreement with the data and usage of inpatient facilities well within the healthcare limit. While short-term predictions may work for a few weeks, long-term projections are complicated by unpredictable structural changes. Conclusions The estimated fraction of immunized population by August 2020 warns of a renewed outbreak upon release of measures. A low detection rate prolongs the delay reaching a low case incidence number upon release, showing the importance of an effective testing-quarantine strategy. We show that real-time monitoring of transmission dynamics is important to evaluate the extent of the outbreak, short-term projections for the burden on the healthcare system, and their response to policy changes.

scholarly journals Predicting the cumulative medical load of COVID-19 outbreaks after the peak in daily fatalities

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0247272
Author(s):  
Claudius Gros ◽  
Roser Valenti ◽  
Lukas Schneider ◽  
Benedikt Gutsche ◽  
Dimitrije Marković
Keyword(s):  
Phase Space ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Reaction Model ◽  
Space Representation ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Status ◽  
Short And Long Term

The distinct ways the COVID-19 pandemic has been unfolding in different countries and regions suggest that local societal and governmental structures play an important role not only for the baseline infection rate, but also for short and long-term reactions to the outbreak. We propose to investigate the question of how societies as a whole, and governments in particular, modulate the dynamics of a novel epidemic using a generalization of the SIR model, the reactive SIR (short-term and long-term reaction) model. We posit that containment measures are equivalent to a feedback between the status of the outbreak and the reproduction factor. Short-term reaction to an outbreak corresponds in this framework to the reaction of governments and individuals to daily cases and fatalities. The reaction to the cumulative number of cases or deaths, and not to daily numbers, is captured in contrast by long-term reaction. We present the exact phase space solution of the controlled SIR model and use it to quantify containment policies for a large number of countries in terms of short and long-term control parameters. We find increased contributions of long-term control for countries and regions in which the outbreak was suppressed substantially together with a strong correlation between the strength of societal and governmental policies and the time needed to contain COVID-19 outbreaks. Furthermore, for numerous countries and regions we identified a predictive relation between the number of fatalities within a fixed period before and after the peak of daily fatality counts, which allows to gauge the cumulative medical load of COVID-19 outbreaks that should be expected after the peak. These results suggest that the proposed model is applicable not only for understanding the outbreak dynamics, but also for predicting future cases and fatalities once the effectiveness of outbreak suppression policies is established with sufficient certainty. Finally, we provide a web app (https://itp.uni-frankfurt.de/covid-19/) with tools for visualising the phase space representation of real-world COVID-19 data and for exporting the preprocessed data for further analysis.

Microstructure of Lightweight and Decorative Renders with Modified Composition

2015 ◽  
Vol 1100 ◽  
pp. 142-146
Author(s):  
Jiří Bydžovský ◽  
Tomáš Melichar ◽  
Nikol Žižková
Keyword(s):  
Structural Changes ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Mechanical Tests ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Aggregate Fractions

Within the research presented in this article the attention was paid to the study of microstructure of lightweight and decorative renders. The composition of these renders was modified using alternative raw materials in amount of 5 % substituting the finest aggregate fractions. For evaluation of microstructure and its changes the combination of three methods SEM, XRD and DTA was used. Samples for the analysis were prepared from 90-day old specimens. The reason was the evaluation of material structural changes within the mid-term scale because considering the character and amount of used raw materials including the results of physical-mechanical tests no more significant changes were assumed in a short-term period. The performed analyses showed only inessential changes in microstructure of modified materials in comparison with the results of physical-mechanical tests.

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