The effects of state coercion on voting outcome in protest movements: a causal forest approach

In this research note, we examine how Hong Kong voters respond to police violence in the recent social movement. We use causal forests, a machine learning algorithm, to estimate the impact of tear gas usage specific to each constituency. Based on the 2019 District Council Election outcome, we find that there is heterogeneity in the effect of state coercion on the vote share of pro-democracy candidates, depending on many socioeconomic characteristics of the constituency. The results imply that economic concerns still matter in the struggle to obtain democracy: citizens who sense economic insecurity in social unrest show less disapproval of state violence.

Prophesizing the End of Theatre

The Chilean police keep firing pellets and tear gas bombs in the streets, blinding and injuring people by the hundreds. The people keep demonstrating. Two months before the protests of October 2019, a problematic documentary play, Animales invisibles, while distorting the genre, prophesied what was to come precisely in the way it departed from the documentary.

Health issues and healthcare utilization among adults who reported exposure to tear gas during 2020 Portland (OR) protests: a cross-sectional survey

Background Repeated use of chemical irritants for crowd-control by local and federal law enforcement during sustained racial justice protests in the U.S. has raised concerns about potential adverse health effects. The objective of this study was to describe the health consequences of exposure to tear gas agents and associated healthcare utilization among adults reporting recent exposure to tear gas. Methods A cross-sectional, self-administered web-based survey of a convenience sample of 2257 adults reporting recent exposure to tear gas in Portland, Oregon (U.S.), administered between July 30, 2020-August 20, 2020. Descriptive analyses were conducted on socioeconomic characteristics, reported health issues, utilization of healthcare services, and frequency of reported exposure to tear gas. Associations between reported mental health issues, healthcare utilization and race and/or ethnic categories were assessed using a chi-square test. For tests of association, racial and/or ethnic categories were divided into White/Non-Hispanic only and all other racial/ethnic categories due to a small number of Black, American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian/Pacific Islander, Hispanic participants and participants with multiple race and/or ethnic background. Effect sizes for the differences were expressed as Cramer’s V, a metric that measures associations between nominal responses. The Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to assess the relationship between health issues and the number of reported days of exposure to tear gas (i.e., a proxy dose of exposure) grouped into 1 day, 2–4 days, and ≥ 5 days. Missing data (item non-response) were omitted from the analysis. Results Almost all respondents (2116; 93.8%) reported physical (2114; 93.7%) or psychological (1635; 72.4%) health issues experienced immediately after (2105; 93.3%) or days following (1944; 86.1%) the exposure. A slightly higher proportion experienced delayed head or gastrointestinal tract issues compared with immediate complaints. The majority (1233; 54.6%) reported receiving or planning to seek medical or mental care. We observed a positive exposure-response trend for all except mouth-related delayed issues (p < 0.01). Conclusion Persons who reported exposer to tear gas agents also reported physical and psychological health issues over a multiple-day period. Health issues reported increased with the frequency of reported exposure, indicating a potential dose-response; these health effects often led to healthcare utilization. This study provides evidence of potential unexpected harms of tear gas in civilians.

Snapshot of a social movement: mental health and protest classes in Hong Kong

Background: Popular protests have broken out in worldwide, particularly in the last few years. In 2019, numerous demonstrations against an extradition bill occurred in Hong Kong until pandemic restrictions were imposed. The policing response relied heavily on methods such as batons, tear gas and rubber bullets. Given the relevance for other geographical contexts, the current study investigated the mental health impacts on protest participants and spillover to community members.Methods: Surveys were disseminated on social media in August and October 2019 to collect demographics, political views, protest participation, exposure to (protest-related) potentially traumatic events (PTEs) and mental health symptoms. A latent class analysis (LCA) was conducted using demographic data and inter-class differences in PTEs and mental health symptoms were examined.Results: There were 37,541 (59.8% female) and 40,703 (50.0% female) responses in August and October. Respondents, even those with low participation, reported significant levels of depression, anxiety, and symptoms of traumatic stress (STS). The LCA suggested a 5-class solution (youth, allies, supporters, sympathizers, and frontliners). Mental health symptoms and PTEs varied with class membership, with 50.8% of frontliners reporting severe STS.Limitations: The non-random sampling and self-reported measures may over-estimate the prevalence of mental distress in the wider population.Conclusions: Large numbers of pro-democracy supporters in Hong Kong reported high rates of depression, anxiety and STS during mass protests. Younger and more heavily involved respondents faced the highest mental health risks, however elevated rates were also observed for respondents with low participation.