Trend assessment in climate variable by Mann Kendall test of Bastar district of Chhattisgarh

Climate change is a natural phenomenon but in present decades its variability of change mainly due to anthropogenic activities is alarming. Agriculture of Chhattisgarh state is mainly dependant on monsoon rain and its distribution. Considering this fact, the present study has been tried to analyze the most important climatic variables, viz., precipitation and temeperature for analyzing their trend in the area. The trends of maximum atmospheric temperature, rainfall and rainy days are analysed statistically for meteorological data of Jagdalpur station of Bastar district, over last three decades stretching between years 1980 to 2014. The long term change in temperature, rainfall and rainy days has been analysed by correlation and linear trend analysis. The annual MMAX temperature has decreased at a rate of -0.465 °C per year during this period at Jagdalpur station and decreasing trend for rainy days during monsoonal season (June to September) is also found and is confirmed by Mann-Kendall trend test. Very weak increasing trend is observed in total month rainfall (TMRF) during season June to September. There are decreasing trends of mean monthly rainfall and south west (June - September) rainfall observed in Bastar district of Chhattisgarh. The agricultural planning and utilization of water is dependent on monsoon rainfall and more than 75% of rainfall occurring during the monsoon season is uneven both in time and space. Therefore its analysis is important for crop planning.

Pulmonary Sequelae in Patients After Recovery From Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Follow-Up Study With Chest CT

Objective: The pulmonary sequelae of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have not been comprehensively evaluated. We performed a follow-up study analyzing chest computed tomography (CT) findings of COVID-19 patients at 3 and 6 months after hospital discharge.Methods: Between February 2020 and May 2020, a total of 273 patients with COVID-19 at the Shenzhen Third People's Hospital were recruited and followed for 6 months after discharge. Chest CT scanning was performed with the patient in the supine position at end-inspiration. A total of 957 chest CT scans was obtained at different timepoints. A semi-quantitative score was used to assess the degree of lung involvement.Results: Most chest CT scans showed bilateral lung involvement with peripheral location at 3 and 6 months follow-up. The most common CT findings were ground-glass opacity and parenchymal band, which were found in 136 (55.3%) and 94 (38.2%) of the 246 patients at 3 months follow-up, and 82 (48.2%) and 76 (44.7%) of 170 patients at 6 months follow-up, respectively. The number of lobes involved and the total CT severity score declined over time. The total CT score gradually increased with the increasement of disease severity at both 3 months follow-up (trend test P < 0.001) and 6 months follow-up (trend test P < 0.001). Patients with different disease severity represented diverse CT patterns over time.Conclusions: The most common CT findings were ground-glass opacity and parenchymal bands at the 3 and 6 months follow-up. Patients with different disease severity represent diverse CT manifestations, indicating the necessary for long-term follow-up monitoring of patients with severe and critical conditions.

Geo-Hydrological Events and Temporal Trends in CAPE and TCWV over the Main Cities Facing the Mediterranean Sea in the Period 1979–2018

The Mediterranean region is regarded as the meeting point between Europe, Africa and the Middle East. Due to favourable climatic conditions, many civilizations have flourished here. Approximately, about half a billion people live in the Mediterranean region, which provides a key passage for trading between Europe and Asia. Belonging to the middle latitude zone, this region experiences high meteorological variability that is mostly induced by contrasting hot and cold air masses that generally come from the west. Due to such phenomenon, this region is subject to frequent intensive precipitation events. Besides, in this complex physiographic and orographic region, human activities have contributed to enhance the geo-hydrologic risk. Further, in terms of climate change, the Mediterranean is a hot spot, probably exposing it to future damaging events. In this framework, this research focuses on the analysis of precipitation related events recorded in the EM–DAT disasters database for the period 1979–2018. An increasing trend emerges in both event records and related deaths. Then a possible linkage with two meteorological variables was investigated. Significant trends were studied for CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) and TCWV (Total Column Water Vapor) data, as monthly means in 100 km2 cells for 18 major cities facing the Mediterranean Sea. The Mann–Kendall trend test, Sen’s slope estimation and the Hurst exponent estimation for the investigation of persistency in time series were applied. The research provides new evidence and quantification for the increasing trend of climate related disasters at the Mediterranean scale: recorded events in 1999–2018 are about four times the ones in 1979–1998. Besides, it relates this rise with the trend of two meteorological variables associated with high intensity precipitation events, which shows a statistically significative increasing trend in many of the analysed cities facing the Mediterranean Sea.

Cross-sectional association between body fat percentage and arteriosclerosis assessed by Cardio-Ankle Vascular Index in a Chinese population: a retrospective observational study

ObjectiveTo evaluate arteriosclerosis using Cardio-Ankle Vascular Index (CAVI) and to explore the relation between the body fat percentage (BFP) and CAVI.DesignA retrospective observational study.Setting and participantsA total of 1152 patients admitted to a geriatric unit and general practice at a mega hospital in Wuhan, China, from November 2018 to November 2019 were included in this study.Primary outcomeAssociation between BFP and CAVI.ResultsMultiple linear regression analysis showed that BFP was positively correlated with CAVI after correction for potential confounding variables (β=0.03; 95% CI: 0.01 to 0.05); this association persisted after BFP was treated by quartile categorical variables and the trend test was statistically significant (p for trend=0.002). Meanwhile, the generalised additive model showed a non-linear association between BFP and CAVI. When BFP<20.6%, BFP is not associated with CAVI for (β=−0.02; 95% CI: −0.06 to 0.03), but when BFP≥20.6%, there is a linear positive association between BFP and CAVI (β=0.05; 95% CI: 0.02 to 0.07). Subgroup analysis showed that there was an interaction between BFP and CAVI in the age stratification (p interaction=0.038).ConclusionBFP was non-linearly correlated with CAVI, with a 0.05 increase in CAVI for every 1% increase in BFP when BFP≥20.6% and a 0.03 increase in CAVI in those >65 years of age.

Spatiotemporal Variation of Drought and Its Correlation With Plant Species of Yunnan Province, China

Drought is the main natural disaster in Yunnan Province, China. In the present paper monthly precipitation observation data from Yunnan Province durign the period of 1966 - 2015 were used. From the data, the selected percentage of precipitation anomalies was used as drought index. By applying the ArcGIS inverse distance interpolation method and Mann Kendall non parametric trend test method the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of drought in Yunnan province were analyzed. Results show that the drought in Yunnan Province has a slightly upward trend. In spring and winter, there is a tendency to become wet but in summer and autumn, the tendency is shown by dry condition. It was observed that the studied area is prone to a severe drought in winter, and there will be more droughts in the east part, the northwest part, and the southwest part of Yunnan province when it is autumn. In other periods, severe doughts usually attack the middle part of Yunnan province, which can be proved by the characteristics of vegetation distribution. Bangladesh J. Bot. 50(4): 1133-1142, 2021 (December)

Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

This study investigated the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia. A soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was calibrated and validated against observed streamflow using SWAT CUP. The Mann–Kendall trend test (MK) was used to assess climate trends. Meteorological drought (SPEI) and hydrological drought (SDI) were also investigated. Based on the ensemble mean of five global climate models (GCMs), projected increases in mean annual maximum temperature over the period 2015–2100 (compared with a 1983–2014 baseline) range from 1.16 to 1.73 °C, while increases in minimum temperature range between 0.79 and 2.53 °C. Increases in mean annual precipitation range from 1.8% at Addis Ababa to 45.5% over the Hombole area. High streamflow (Q5) declines at all stations except Ginchi. Low flows (Q90) also decline with Q90 equaling 0 m3s−1 (i.e., 100% reduction) at some gauging stations (Akaki and Hombole) for individual GCMs. The SPEI confirmed a significant drought trend in the past, while the frequency and severity of drought will increase in the future. The basin experienced conditions that varied from modest dry periods to a very severe hydrological drought between 1986 and 2005. The projected SDI ranges from modestly dry to modestly wet conditions. Climate change in the basin would enhance seasonal variations in hydrological conditions. Both precipitation and streamflow will decline in the wet seasons and increase in the dry seasons. These changes are likely to have an impact on agricultural activities and other human demands for water resources throughout the basin and will require the implementation of appropriate mitigation measures.

Spatiotemporal Trend Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall over Ziway Lake Basin, Ethiopia

Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. This study assessed the historical (1983–2005) and future (2026–2100) rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) trends of the Ziway Lake Basin (Ethiopia). The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while simulated historical and future climate data were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) datasets under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5. The CMIP5 datasets were statistically downscaled by using the climate model data for hydrologic modeling (CMhyd) tool and bias corrected using the distribution mapping method available in the CMhyd tool. The performance of simulated rainfall, Tmax, and Tmin of the CMIP5 models were statistically evaluated using observation datasets at eleven stations. The results showed that the selected CMIP5 models can reasonably simulate the monthly rainfall, Tmax, and Tmin at the majority of the stations. Modified Mann–Kendall trend test were applied to estimate the trends of annual rainfall, Tmax, and Tmin in the historical and future periods. We found that rainfall experienced no clear trends, while Tmax, and Tmin showed consistently significant increasing trends under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. However, the warming is expected to be greater under RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5 by the end of the 21st century, resulting in an increasing trend of Tmax and Tmin at all stations. The greatest warming occurred in the central part of the basin, with statistically significant increases largely seen by the end of the 21st century, which is expected to exacerbate the evapotranspiration demand of the area that could negatively affect the freshwater availability within the basin. This study increases our understanding of historic trends and projected future change effects on rainfall- and evapotranspiration-related climate variables, which can be used to inform adaptive water resource management strategies.

Global Warming Signals in Brazil and its Macro-Regions - Trend Analysis of Distributional Characteristics Characteristics

The aim of this research is to study global warming signals across Brazil. This investigation uses approximately 60 years of daily temperature data set and applies a recent trend test proposed by Rivas and Gonzalo (2020) which analyses not only the average but also different distributional characteristics. Besides, the test provides robust results for both I(0) and I(1) processes. We found significant trends in almost all characteristics in the analysis of the whole country. The mean and the maximum are increasing over time and the dispersion measures indicate decreasing trends. For the region analysis, we found out that, apart from the South, which does not appear to be drastically affected by global warming, the other regions present clear signs of global warming.

Projection of Agricultural Water Stress for Climate Change Scenarios: A Regional Case Study of Iraq

Assessment of possible changes in crops water stress due to climate alteration is essential for agricultural planning, particularly in arid regions where water supply is the major challenge for agricultural development. This study aims to project climatic water availability (CWA) and crop water demand (CWD) to outline the possible future agricultural water stress of Iraq for different radiative concentration pathways (RCPs). The ensemble means of downscaled precipitation and temperature projections of the selected global climate models (GCMs) were used in a simple water balance model for this purpose. The modified Mann–Kendall (mMK) trend test was employed to estimate the tendency in CWA and the Wilcoxon rank test to evaluate CWD alteration in three future time horizons compared to the base period (1971–2000). The results revealed a decrease in CWA at a rate of up to −34/year during 2010–2099 for RCP8.5. The largest declination would be in summer (−29/year) and an insignificant decrease in winter (−1.3/year). The study also showed an increase in CWD of all major crops for all scenarios. The highest increase in CWD would be for summer crops, approximately 320 mm, and the lowest for winter crops, nearly 32 mm for RCP8.5 in the far future (2070–2099). The decrease in CWA and increase in CWD would cause a sharp rise in crop water stress in Iraq. This study indicates that the increase in temperature is the main reason for a large increase in CWD and increased agricultural water stress in Iraq.

Remote sea-surface temperature variations (2001–2019) in Kuwait Bay: Time series analysis in frequency and time domains

There is a recognized need to analyze the temporal changes of sea surface temperature in various water bodies, especially the semi-enclosed ones, because of the direct link between sea temperature and aquatic biodiversity. There has been substantial research undertaken on the role of time series analysis as a powerful technique for studying the characteristics of long-term SST changes at regular time intervals. The present paper aimed to study the monthly-averaged MODIS SST data (2001–2019) over Kuwait Bay, i.e., the northwestern corner of the Arabian Gulf. Because different approaches can yield different results, the analysis of the SST time series was conducted using time and frequency domains. The preliminary analysis of the time series reported a significant SST peak in August 2010 that reached nearly 34.2 °C (SD = 0.17 °C) due to the moderate intensity El Niño event in 2010. However, in the preceding year, we observed a cool SST anomaly in the range of –0.5 °C to –2.4 °C. From the SMK trend test, we found that monthly climatological SST in September exhibited a significant upward trend (𝑆9 = 103, 𝜏 = 0.6, 𝑃 = 0.0004). Pettitt’s changepoint test indicated a significant change in the central tendency of SST data after April 2012. The annual periodicity of the SST in Kuwait Bay was constant over the 19 years. Furthermore, a very weak periodicity of 6-month has been barely noticed. Our present results provide large-scale guidance that affirms the importance of highlighting the severe SST fluctuations in Kuwait’s water in order to understand and improve its marine environmental status.