Effects of climate change on bioclimatic indices in vineyards along Lake Neuchatel, Switzerland

In this study, we investigated the consequences of climate change on bioclimatic indices in vineyards along the edge of Lake Neuchatel in Switzerland. Like in other vineyards all around the world, the typicity of wines and the phenology of vines have changed, particularly since the 1970s. Trends in the growing season average temperature and in Huglin’s heliothermal index show that the climate in the Neuchatel vineyards changed from very cool or cool to temperate during the last decades. Trends in the cool night index and in the prior to harvest cool night index both indicate that in the near future this wine region will frequently experience temperate instead of cool nights during the weeks leading up to harvest. Our results highlight the need for adaptation strategies, such as an upward elevational shift for Pinot Noir, as climatic conditions will become too warm at its current location in the next decades. They also show that conditions in this region are already favorable for more thermophilic varieties such as Merlot. In the context of global warming, this kind of analysis should be conducted throughout winegrowing regions in order to develop efficient adaptation strategies at the microclimatic scale.

Ecological Correlates of Elevational Range Shifts in Tropical Birds

Globally, birds have been shown to respond to climate change by shifting their elevational distributions. This phenomenon is especially prevalent in the tropics, where elevational gradients are often hotspots of diversity and endemism. Empirical evidence has suggested that elevational range shifts are far from uniform across species, varying greatly in the direction (upslope vs. downslope) and rate of change (speed of elevational shift). However, little is known about the drivers of these variable responses to climate change, limiting our ability to accurately project changes in the future. Here, we compile empirical estimates of elevational shift rates (m/yr) for 421 bird species from eight study sites across the tropics. On average, species shifted their mean elevations upslope by 1.63 ± 0.30 m/yr, their upper limits by 1.62 m ± 0.38 m/yr, and their lower limits by 2.81 ± 0.42 m/yr. Upslope shift rates increased in smaller-bodied, less territorial species, whereas larger species were more likely to shift downslope. When considering absolute shift rates, rates were fastest for species with high dispersal ability, low foraging strata, and wide elevational ranges. Our results indicate that elevational shift rates are associated with species’ traits, particularly body size, dispersal ability, and territoriality. However, these effects vary substantially across sites, suggesting that responses of tropical montane bird communities to climate change are complex and best predicted within the local or regional context.

Patterns of floral allocation along an elevation gradient: variation in Senecio subalpinus growing in the Tatra Mountains

This study examined the morphological variation in Senecio subalpinus W.D.J. Koch. (Asteraceae) along a 950-m elevation gradient in the Tatra Mountains, Central Europe, with emphasis on floral allocation patterns. Fifteen morphological traits were measured in 200 plants collected in the field from 20 sites then the findings were modelled by elevation using linear mixed-effects models. Plant aboveground biomass and height decreased steadily with increasing elevation; however, the most distinctive feature was the elevational shift in floral allocation patterns. Low-elevation plants had greater numbers of smaller flower heads with a lower overall number of flowers, while high-elevation plants had smaller numbers of bigger flower heads and a greater overall number of flowers. Accordingly, the mean individual flower mass increased significantly with increasing elevation. Interestingly, the width of the outer ligulate flowers also increased considerably with increasing elevation, increasing the fill of the overall circumference of the flower head. Results of this study confirmed that elevation is an important ecological gradient driving variation in vegetative and floral traits of S. subalpinus. Possible causes of the observed variations are subsequently discussed, including the varying effects of both abiotic and biotic factors with elevation gradients.

Resident vegetation modifies climate-driven elevational shift of a mountain sedge

Mountain plant species are changing their ranges in response to global warming. However, these shifts vary tremendously in rate, extent and direction. The reasons for this variation are yet poorly understood. A process potentially important for mountain plant re-distribution is a competition between colonizing species and the resident vegetation. Here, we focus on the impact of this process using the recent elevational shift of the sedge Carex humilis in the northern Italian Alps as a model system. We repeated and extended historical sampling (conducted in 1976) of the species in the study region. We used the historical distribution data and historical climatic maps to parameterize a species distribution model (SDM) and projected the potential distribution of the species under current conditions. We compared the historical and the current re-survey for the species in terms of the cover of important potential competitor species as well as in terms of the productivity of the resident vegetation indicated by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). We found that Carex humilis has shifted its leading range margin upward rapidly (51.2 m per decade) but left many sites that have become climatically suitable since 1976 according to the SDM uncolonized. These suitable but uncolonized sites show significantly higher coverage of all dwarf shrub species and higher NDVI than the sites occupied by the sedge. These results suggest that resistance of the resident vegetation against colonization of migrating species can indeed play an important role in controlling the re-distribution of mountain plants under climate change.