Design of Macroeconomic Growth Prediction Algorithm Based on Data Mining

With the rapid development of information technology and globalization of economy, financial data are being generated and collected at an unprecedented rate. Consequently, there has been a dire need of automated methods for effective and proficient utilization of a substantial amount of financial data to help in investment planning and decision-making. Data mining methods have been employed to discover hidden patterns and estimate future tendencies in financial markets. In this article, an improved macroeconomic growth prediction algorithm based on data mining and fuzzy correlation analysis is presented. This study analyzes the sequence of economic characteristics, reorganizes the spatial structure of economic characteristics, and integrates the statistical information of economic data. Using the optimized Apriori algorithm, the association rules between macroeconomic data are generated. Distinct features are extracted according to association rules using the joint distribution characteristic quantity of macroeconomic time series. Moreover, the Doppler parameter of macroeconomic time series growth prediction is calculated, and the residual analysis method of the regression model is used to predict the growth of macroeconomic data. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm has better adaptability, less computation time, and higher prediction accuracy of economic data mining.

Engaging globally with how to achieve healthy societies: insights from India, Latin America and East and Southern Africa

The way healthy societies are conceptualised shapes efforts to achieve them. This paper explores the features and drivers of frameworks for healthy societies that had wide or sustained policy influence post-1978 at global level and as purposively selected southern regions, in India, Latin America and East and Southern Africa. A thematic analysis of 150 online documents identified paradigms and themes. The findings were discussed with expertise from the regions covered to review and validate the findings.Globally, comprehensive primary healthcare, whole-of-government and rights-based approaches have focused on social determinants and social agency to improve health as a basis for development. Biomedical, selective and disease-focused technology-driven approaches have, however, generally dominated, positioning health improvements as a result of macroeconomic growth. Traditional approaches in the three southern regions previously mentioned integrated reciprocity and harmony with nature. They were suppressed by biomedical, allopathic models during colonialism and by postcolonial neoliberal economic reforms promoting selective, biomedical interventions for highest-burden diseases, with weak investment in public health. In all three regions, holistic, sociocultural models and claims over natural resources re-emerged. In the 2000s, economic, ecological, pandemic crises and social inequality have intensified alliances and demand to address global, commercial processes undermining healthy societies, with widening differences between ‘planetary health’, integrating ecosystems and collective interests, and the coercive controls and protectionism in technology-driven and biosecurity-driven approaches.The trajectories point to a need for ideas and practice on healthy societies to tackle systemic determinants of inequities within and across countries, including to reclaim suppressed cultures; to build transdisciplinary, reflexive and participatory forms of knowledge that are embedded in and learn from action; and to invest in a more equitable circulation of ideas between regions in framing global ideas. Today’s threats raise a critical moment of choice on which ideas dominate, not only for health but also for survival.

Robust identification of investor beliefs

This paper develops a method informed by data and models to recover information about investor beliefs. Our approach uses information embedded in forward-looking asset prices in conjunction with asset pricing models. We step back from presuming rational expectations and entertain potential belief distortions bounded by a statistical measure of discrepancy. Additionally, our method allows for the direct use of sparse survey evidence to make these bounds more informative. Within our framework, market-implied beliefs may differ from those implied by rational expectations due to behavioral/psychological biases of investors, ambiguity aversion, or omitted permanent components to valuation. Formally, we represent evidence about investor beliefs using a nonlinear expectation function deduced using model-implied moment conditions and bounds on statistical divergence. We illustrate our method with a prototypical example from macrofinance using asset market data to infer belief restrictions for macroeconomic growth rates.

Aggregate growth models from a Schumpeterian perspective

The paper presents a critical assessment of the Schumpeterian macroeconomic approach to economic growth. Taking as reference a representative sample of important works within this tradition, the paper identifies the main contributions and limitations of the macroeconomic Schumpeterian literature to understanding economic growth. More specifically, the literature review carried out in this paper focuses on three of Schumpeter’s ideas that have become particularly influential in macroeconomic growth theory: (i) the role of technological transfer in productivity growth in follower countries; (ii) the importance of research intensity for technical progress; and (iii) the prominence of technological competitiveness for trade performance. The contribution of the paper is twofold: (i) it provides an organized review of the macroeconomic literature until its present state; and (ii) it indicates important gaps in this literature that should be the focus of further research.

National taxation policies dynamics in agrarian industry globalization: assessing the efficiency factors

This research study takes up the criteria of comfortable/harsh national taxation policies in an attempt to analyze various impacts of countries’ tax systems on their macroeconomic growth as well as on countries’ participation in the world economic processes. More specifically, the article analyzes the correlation between the dynamics of tax regimes’ components on the one side and the macroeconomic indicators of countries on the other, while the authors present their own, original classification of the countries divided into groups depending on the level of their wellbeing. Further on, authors’ conclusions are focused around the efficiency of fiscal instruments in part of economic growth stimulation and trade attractiveness. These conclusions are generally applicable to the majority of today’s countries. Also, the study shows how tax policies and tax regimes (de)stimulate economic growth and increase/decrease trade attractiveness of different countries in today’s globalized world. This obviously proves that taxation overall has enough power to affect national macroeconomic growth in general and foreign trade in particular. Indirectly, it also has the power to affect social wellbeing and the state of nationalinfrastructure.