Mating Market and Dynamics of Union Formation

The paper investigates the relationship between structural partner market constraints and the timing and educational sorting of unions in Germany (1985–2018). We integrate the literature on the effect of the reversed gender gap in education on educational assortative mating, with a focus on mating dynamics and the measurement of the partner market over the life course. We concentrate on two particular educational groups, low-educated men and highly educated women, those with worsening mating prospects and more subject to experience hypogamous unions. Our results show that the local education-specific mating squeeze influences union formation, its timing, and educational sorting. Indeed, for the two groups, the increasing supply of highly educated women in the partner market increases the likelihood of remaining single or establishing an hypogamous union, where she is higher educated than he. In line with search theory, we find the effects of the mating squeeze to become particularly visible after people turn 30 years of age. This is true for the risk of remaining single and forming an hypogamous union. We underline the necessity to study assortative mating and union formation from a dynamic perspective, taking into account changing structural conditions during the partner search process.

Do Local Sex Ratios Approximate Subjective Partner Markets?

Sex ratios have widely been recognized as an important link between demographic contexts and behavior because changes in the ratio shift sex-specific bargaining power in the partner market. Implicitly, the literature considers individual partner market experiences to be a function of local sex ratios. However, empirical evidence on the correspondence between subjective partner availability and local sex ratios is lacking so far. In this paper, we analyzed how closely a set of different local sex ratio measures correlates with subjective partner market experiences. Linking a longitudinal German survey to population data for different entities (states, counties, municipalities), we used multilevel logistic regression models to explore associations between singles’ subjective partner market experiences and various operationalizations of local sex ratios. Results suggest that local sex ratios correlated only weakly with subjective partner market experiences. Adult sex ratios based on broad age brackets, including those for lower-level entities, did not significantly predict whether individuals predominantly met individuals of their own sex. More fine-grained, age-specific sex ratios prove to be better predictors of subjective partner market experiences, in particular when age hypergamy patterns were incorporated. Nevertheless, the respective associations were only significant for selected measures. In a complementary analysis, we illustrate the validity of the subjective indicator as a predictor of relationship formation. In sum, our results suggest that subjective partner availability is not adequately represented by the broad adult sex ratio measures that are frequently used in the literature. Future research should be careful not to equate local sex ratios and conscious partner market experiences.

Opportunities and Constraints of the Partner Market and Educational Assortative Mating

This study aims to determine to what extent the opportunities and restrictions of the partner market influence educational assortative mating. It also analyzes the interplay between the opportunity structure and preferences. Matching district-based partner market indicators to heterosexual couples when they move in together based on the German Socio-Economic Panel, we find strong effects of the opportunity structure on educational homogamy. The results further imply that the density of the supply of potential partners is more important for educational assortative mating than imbalanced supply and competition. While the impact of partner market imbalances on assortative mating is a mere effect of the opportunity structure, the effects of the partner market density of relevant and available partners in space weakly imply that homophile and maximization preferences are simultaneously at work.

Do local sex ratios approximate subjective partner markets? Evidence from the German Family Panel

A growing body of evidence suggests that imbalanced local sex ratios are correlated with social consequences, including the pattern and timing of union formation, fertility and relationship stability. Scholars have argued that these findings can be understood as a result of imbalances in the bargaining power the respective sex holds in male- or female-skewed regions, but they remain vague on the underlying mechanisms. Specifically, the literature implicitly considers individual partner market experiences to be a function of local sex ratios. However, empirical evidence on the correspondence between subjective partner availability and local sex ratios remains scarce. This study addresses this gap by linking individual-level German longitudinal survey data (pairfam) with local sex ratios from population data for different entities (states, counties, and municipalities). Using multilevel regression models, this paper analyses the correlations between a subjective partner market indicator and a variety of local sex ratio measures. Moreover, an event history analysis explored how either indicator relates transitions into relationships. Results revealed that none of the local sex ratio measures, including those for narrow age ranges and/or lower level administrative entities, significantly predicted whether individuals predominantly met individuals of their own sex. Event history models yielded significant correlations between this subjective partner market indicator and relationship formation for both genders, substantiating the validity of the subjective indicator. For local sex ratios, results revealed an additional association between local sex ratios and female relationship formation when the sex ratios were adjusted for age hypergamy. Male relationship formation was uncorrelated with any local sex ratio. Both evolutionary and social scientific reasoning on the consequences of sex ratio imbalances rest on assumptions of subjective partner availability that may not be adequately represented by local sex ratios. Future research should be careful not to equate local sex ratios and conscious partner market experiences.

The changing landscape of intimacy in later life

The purpose of this chapter is to uncover the changing structural conditions for late-life intimacy using empirical data. The chapter shows the prolongation of the lifespan in different countries and discusses its importance for older people’s relationships and for envisioning new intimate futures. The rise of divorce culture among older people is discussed using comparative data on divorce rates in different countries and shows how this affects the partner market for older singles, by creating a ‘society of divorcees’ and potential for a ‘grey repartnering revolution’. It also shows how the gendered structure of the partner market is affected by this change. Finally, the chapter shows how new digital technologies have affected the dating arena by introducing new venues for meeting a partner.

Partner Market Opportunities and Relationship Stability

Although partner market opportunities are generally considered to be important for relationship stability, they have never been measured accurately. In order to be able to test the anticipated effects of partner market opportunities, this study conceptualises them as individual opportunities for contact and interaction in concrete social contexts, like the neighbourhood, the workplace, leisure activities, etc. Using data from the German Marriage Market Survey, we first examine the impact of individual partner market opportunities on the risk of separation. Second, we examine to what extend the most frequently studied determinants of divorce and separation depend on partner market opportunities. Our results show that the number of opposite sex contacts increases the probability of separation. Sharing the same contacts with one’s partner decreases the risk of separation. Our results indicate further that reducing opposite sex contacts in the course of the relationship is partly responsible for the higher stability of longer-lasting relationships. Having a migration background is associated with fewer opposite sex contacts. This means that having a migration background would be more destabilising if these individuals did not have less opposite sex contacts than individuals without a migration background. In contrast, joint home ownership, church attendance, higher education and residing in western Germany would generally be more stabilising if these factors were not connected with more opposite sex contacts.