Microsimulation of Household and Marital Transitions Leading to Childlessness Among Dutch Women Born Between 1971 and 2000

After reaching historically low levels among the women born in the early 1940s, childlessness has been increasing in most Western countries among women born in the 1950s and 1960s. This increase took place as patterns of transition to adulthood have become increasingly late, protracted, and complex. Yet, it is precisely those women who enter a first relationship late, spend more time as single, and experience union instability who more often remain childless. This suggests that levels of childlessness will continue to increase as younger cohorts complete their childbearing histories. In this study, we use microsimulation to project the household and union formation histories of cohorts of Dutch women born between 1971 and 2000. Results suggest that childlessness will actually decrease among cohorts born between 1971 and 1983 and then increase among those born between 1984 and 2000. The decrease occurs as pathways of household and union formation become later, more protracted, and more complex, but also as cohabiting women start to exhibit a higher propensity to become mothers. The increase, on the other hand, occurs as pathways become somewhat less protracted and complex, but also as the propensity of cohabiting women to become mothers returns to previous levels and as age at leaving the parental home strongly rises. Childlessness levels appear to increasingly depend on the childbearing decisions of cohabiting couples and on age at leaving the parental home.

Mating Market and Dynamics of Union Formation

The paper investigates the relationship between structural partner market constraints and the timing and educational sorting of unions in Germany (1985–2018). We integrate the literature on the effect of the reversed gender gap in education on educational assortative mating, with a focus on mating dynamics and the measurement of the partner market over the life course. We concentrate on two particular educational groups, low-educated men and highly educated women, those with worsening mating prospects and more subject to experience hypogamous unions. Our results show that the local education-specific mating squeeze influences union formation, its timing, and educational sorting. Indeed, for the two groups, the increasing supply of highly educated women in the partner market increases the likelihood of remaining single or establishing an hypogamous union, where she is higher educated than he. In line with search theory, we find the effects of the mating squeeze to become particularly visible after people turn 30 years of age. This is true for the risk of remaining single and forming an hypogamous union. We underline the necessity to study assortative mating and union formation from a dynamic perspective, taking into account changing structural conditions during the partner search process.

Union formation and childbearing among Chinese youth: Trends and socioeconomic differentials

Driven by economic development, ideational changes and family planning policies, the Chinese family has experienced significant change over the past several decades. Based on data from the 2018 wave of the China Family Panel Studies, this study analyzes China’s younger generations’ union formation and childbearing behaviors. The results show that although the average age of entry into a first marriage continues to rise, young people generally express a desire to enter into marriage and value the creation of a family. As premarital cohabitation became more prevalent, its determinants change from the “second demographic transition” model to the “pattern of disadvantage” model. The differences between cohabitors and non-cohabitors in premarital conception, premarital childbirth and divorce diminished in the recent cohorts. The findings suggest that the age of childbearing for Chinese women remains relatively early. The implementation of the “universal two-child policy” in 2015 has also encouraged younger women’s childbearing. Among those born in the 1980s, almost half have already given birth to a second child. The ideal number of children has declined across birth cohorts in China, especially for individuals with a higher educational level and urban hukou. In summary, changes in union formation and childbearing among Chinese youth imply that China will be facing a further rise in the first marriage age and a further decline in the fertility rate. However, voluntary singlehood will remain rare, and Chinese youth still value the importance of marriage and childbearing.

Analysing Transitions in Intimate Relationships with Panel Data

Panel data on intimate relationships are becoming increasingly available, enabling a closer examination and deeper understanding of why and how they develop over time. The aim of this review is to illustrate to what extent demographic research has made progress in understanding the dynamics of intimate relationships by examining panel data. We focus on hypotheses about key transitions throughout the progression of intimate relationships, ranging from union formation up to cohabitation, marriage, divorce and repartnering. For every hypothesis, we will present findings from cross-sectional data and illustrate whether the use of panel data and longitudinal methods modified the previous understandings of transitions in intimate relationships. * This article belongs to a special issue on "Identification of causal mechanisms in demographic research: The contribution of panel data".

Online Dating Is Shifting Educational Inequalities in Marriage Formation in Germany

Digital technologies govern a large part of our social lives, including the pursuit of a romantic partner. Despite recent inquiries into the social consequences of meeting online, what remains unclear is how the link between education and union formation varies in online versus offline meeting contexts, particularly on the backdrop of growing educational gaps in marriage. Using 2008–2019 pairfam data from Germany (N = 3,561), this study ran a series of Fine-Gray competing risks models to assess how online dating shapes the transition to marriage for partnered adults with nontertiary and tertiary education. Results reveal that irrespective of education, men in online-formed couples had greater chances of marrying than men in couples established offline. Highly educated women who met their partner in nondigital ways were less prone to marry than lower-educated women; for women in couples initiated online, however, the pattern was reversed. The internet dating marriage advantage of well-educated women was partly related to better matching on marriage attitudes and gender ideology. Facing a scarcity of eligible partners offline, high-educated women draw on more abundant online options to select more egalitarian-minded men. This study overall suggests that internet dating fosters an uneven distribution of opportunities for marriage, highlighting the role of digital partner markets in the social demography of union formation.