Risk Analysis and Reliability Assessment of Overhead Cranes Using Fault Tree Analysis Integrated with Markov Chain and Fuzzy Bayesian Networks

Establishing an adequate level of reliability in the overhead crane operations is an important and vital principle to avoid undesirable consequences. To do this, it is appropriate to have a comprehensive approach for risk and reliability assessment of the most probable failure scenarios during overhead crane operations. In this study, fault tree analysis (FTA) in combination with fuzzy set theory, Bayesian network (BN), and Markov chain was used to evaluate the probability of top event and reliability of overhead cranes. A total of 47 basic events were identified for ladle fall in overhead cranes. The results showed that the probability of the ladle fall in the FT approach is equal to 0.0523035 and in the BN approach in the prior event is equal to 0.0273394 which is less than the FT method. Based on the values predicted by Markov chain, the reliability of the system decreases over time by 67.9% after 60 months. This study showed that the plan for ladle fall prevention should consider all influencing parameters identified by proper risk assessment methodologies.

Out of the Frame

This chapter considers the philosophy of live-score film screenings in contexts of filmic diegesis, representation, and illusion. These performances hybridize categories of spatial co-presence/absence and temporal simultaneity/anteriority in media communication, disrupting the balance between audio-visual documenting and constructing of a posited prior event. They revisit a pre-sound-era aesthetic which by nature resisted the modernist need for a centered subject position and a uniform spectatorial space in which all sounds must appear to emanate from the screen. Such cinematic listening experiences undermine theories of film as cohesive illusion by inscribing the “real” (live music) into what is “represented.” Live ensembles conjure up the dramaturgical fantasy space of the operatic orchestra pit, hindering recipients’ “disavowal of the apparatus” and yet increasing the sense of film’s Aristotelian mimetic enactment, rather than its distanced diegetic recounting. This practice invites us to rethink ideas of diegesis and music’s role in creating filmic worlds.

Aspirin reduces cardiovascular events in patients with pneumonia: a prior event rate ratio analysis in a large primary care database

BackgroundIschaemic stroke and myocardial infarction (MI) are common after pneumonia and are associated with long-term mortality. Aspirin may attenuate this risk and should be explored as a therapeutic option.MethodsWe extracted all patients with pneumonia, aged over 50, from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), a large UK primary care database, from inception until January 2019. We then performed a prior event rate ratio analysis (PERR) with propensity score matching, an approach that allows for control of measured and unmeasured confounding, with aspirin usage as the exposure, and ischaemic events as the outcome. The primary outcome was the combined outcome of ischaemic stroke and myocardial infarction. Secondary outcomes were ischaemic stroke and myocardial infarction individually. Relevant confounders were included in the analysis (smoking, comorbidities, age, gender).Findings48 743 patients were eligible for matching. 8099 of these were aspirin users who were matched to 8099 non-users. Aspirin users had a reduced risk of the primary outcome (adjusted hazard ratio, HR 0.64; 95% confidence interval 0.52–0.79) in the PERR analysis. For both secondary outcomes, aspirin use was also associated with a reduced risk HR 0.46 (0.30–0.72) and HR 0.70 (0.55–0.91) for myocardial infarction and stroke respectively).InterpretationThis study provides supporting evidence that aspirin use is associated with reduced ischaemic events after pneumonia in a primary care setting. This drug may have a future clinical role in preventing this important complication.

On the Causal Interpretation of Rate-Change Methods: The Prior Event Rate Ratio and Rate Difference

A growing number of studies use data before and after treatment initiation in groups exposed to different treatment strategies to estimate “causal effects” using a ratio measure called the prior event rate ratio (PERR). Here, we offer a causal interpretation for PERR and its additive scale analog, the prior event rate difference (PERD). We show that causal interpretation of these measures requires untestable rate-change assumptions about the relationship between 1) the change of the counterfactual rate before and after treatment initiation in the treated group under hypothetical intervention to implement the control strategy; and 2) the change of the factual rate before and after treatment initiation in the control group. The rate-change assumption is on the multiplicative scale for PERR but on the additive scale for PERD; the 2 assumptions hold simultaneously under testable, but unlikely, conditions. Even if investigators can pick the most appropriate scale, the relevant rate-change assumption might not hold exactly, so we describe sensitivity analysis methods to examine how assumption violations of different magnitudes would affect study results. We illustrate the methods using data from a published study of proton pump inhibitors and pneumonia.

The Role of Prior Event Retrieval in Encoding Changed Event Features

When people experience everyday activities, their comprehension can be shaped by expectations that derive from similar recent experiences, which can affect the encoding of the new experience into memory. When a new experience includes changes—such as a driving route being blocked by construction—this can lead to interference in subsequent memory. However, theories based on prediction-error-driven learning propose that unpredicted changes can lead to facilitation rather than interference. One potential mechanism of effective encoding of event changes is the retrieval of related features from previous events. Another such mechanism is the generation of a prediction error when a predicted feature is contradicted. In two experiments, we tested for effects of these two mechanisms on memory for changed features in movies of everyday activities. Participants viewed movies of an actor performing everyday activities across two fictitious days. Some event features changed across the days, and some features violated viewers’ predictions. Retrieval of previous event features while viewing the second movie was associated with better subsequent memory, providing evidence for the retrieval mechanism. Contrary to our hypotheses, there was not support for the error mechanism: Prediction error was not associated with better memory when it was observed correlationally (Experiment 1) or directly manipulated (Experiment 2). These results support a key role for episodic retrieval in the encoding of new events. They also indicate boundary conditions on the role of prediction errors in driving new learning. Both findings have clear implications for theories of event memory.

Guilt-free pleasures: how premium and luxury influence regret

Purpose The purpose of this study was to investigate how a consumer’s intention to purchase a premium or luxury product influences the anticipated regret and guilt. Design/methodology/approach A 2 × 2 × 2 between-subjects design (label: premium versus luxury × prior event: success versus failure × product type: hedonic versus utilitarian) on guilt and regret was implemented. Findings Following a successful event, the anticipated regret and guilt are lower for a hedonic product compared to a primarily utilitarian one. The effect was valid when the consumers were looking to buy both luxury and premium. In a situation following a failure, the anticipated levels of regret and guilt were lower for a product that was primarily utilitarian in nature; however, this effect only appeared when the participants were looking to buy both luxury and not premium. Research limitations/implications People may feel more licensed to indulge in a hedonic premium or luxury product after a success and more licensed to indulge in a utilitarian luxury product after a failure. Practical implications The results can be used to understand how to optimize a marketing message of indulgence whether or not one deserves it. Originality/value The study provides novel insight into how anticipated guilt and regret may be evoked by the goal of buying a premium versus luxury product in combination with the product type and a consumer’s experience of a prior event.