Design of Sustainable Renewable-Based Utility Plants in the Face of Uncertainty

This work presents the formulation of a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model to include uncertainty in the design of renewable-based utility plants. The model is based on a superstructure that integrates technologies to process biomass, waste, solar radiation, and wind and considers uncertainty in availability of the renewable resources and on the utility demands. The uncertain parameter space is calculated based on a monthly probability density function for each uncertain parameter and discretized into different levels. It is shown that as uncertainty is considered in the model formulation, design flexibility improves with respect to the deterministic-based designs, although the flexibility is achieved at the expense of higher underused facilities and therefore unused investment cost.

A Longitudinal Analysis of Functional Disability, Recovery, and Nursing Home Utilization After Hospitalization for Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions Among Community-Living Older Persons

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Hospitalizations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs) are considered potentially preventable. With little known about the functional outcomes of older persons after ACSC-related hospitalizations, our objectives were to describe: (1) the 6-month course of postdischarge functional disability, (2) the cumulative monthly probability of functional recovery, and (3) the cumulative monthly probability of incident nursing home (NH) admission. METHODS: The analytic sample included 251 ACSC-related hospitalizations from a cohort of 754 nondisabled, community-living persons aged 70 years and older who were interviewed monthly for up to 19 years. Patient-reported disability scores in basic, instrumental, and mobility activities ranged from 0 to 13. Functional recovery was defined as returning within 6 months of discharge to a total disability score less than or equal to that immediately preceding hospitalization. RESULTS: The mean age was 85.1 years, and the mean disability score was 5.4 in the month prior to the ACSC-related hospitalization. After the ACSC-related hospitalization, total disability scores peaked at month 1 and improved modestly over the next 5 months, but remained greater than the pre-hospitalization score. Functional recovery was achieved by 70% of patients, and incident NH admission was experienced by 50% within 6 months after the 251 ACSC-related hospitalizations. CONCLUSIONS: During the 6 months after an ACSC-related hospitalization, older persons exhibited total disability scores that were higher than those immediately preceding hospitalization, with 3 of 10 not achieving functional recovery and half experiencing incident NH admission. These findings provide evidence that older persons experience clinically meaningful adverse patient-reported outcomes after ACSC-related hospitalizations.

Hydrogeological Study of the Glacial—Fluvioglacial Territory of Grandate (Como, Italy) and Stochastical Modeling of Groundwater Rising

On November 2014, the Municipality of Grandate, near Lake Como, had to deal with a great emergency that was caused by the flooding of factory undergrounds. The authors realized a hydrogeological study to understand the causes of groundwater flooding and to prepare a pre-feasibility study concerning possible actions for groundwater control. The hydrogeological structure is rather complex and required time-consuming reconstruction of the conceptual site model. A transient numerical model was developed to analyse the system behaviour in different scenarios. The flow model was calibrated in a steady and unsteady-state using the automatic calibration code Model-Independent Parameter Estimation (PEST). The study demonstrated that the reason for floods was mainly due to the concurrence of three causes: (1) the hydrogeological structure of the area was recognized as a stagnation zone, (2) groundwater rising, and (3) extremely heavy rainfall in 2014. Through the PEST RandPar function, 100 random rainfall scenarios were generated starting from rainfall data for the last 20 years. The model was used to run 100 1-year long simulations considering the probability distribution of recharge related to the 100 randomly generated rainfall scenarios. Through collecting the piezometric heads that resulted from the simulations, monthly probability curves of groundwater exceeding a threshold level were obtained. The results provided an occurrence probability of groundwater level exceeding the underground structures level between 12% and 15%.

Dependence of the North-South Component of IMF on the Solar Wind Acceleration

The monthly probability of occurrence of southward component of IMF estimated independent of the sector polarity observed near earth is found to change with the magnitude of solar wind velocity. The above analysis is done for each month during two years around sunspot minima and maxima in cycle 21. The results will be interpreted in terms of association of southward Bz events with solar wind flows of distinct solar origin such as low and high speed solar wind.