FORSITE TECHNOLOGIES IN MODERN ECONOMIC RESEARCH

The article is devoted to the study of the theory and practice of modern technologies of scientific prediction and forecasting of scenarios of the future state of society and its economy for the purposes of effective formation and implementation of socio-economic policy. The purpose of the article is to determine the features of the use of foresight technologies in modern economic research. The dynamics of research publications (journal articles) on the subject of foresight (by keywords "foresight", "foresight technology", "foresight methodology"), presented in the online collection of published scientific materials ScienceDirect published by Elsevier, for the period 1997–2020 is analyzed. The tendencies of foresight distribution in the world practice of scientifically substantiated forecasting and programming of social and economic processes are characterized. The experience of conducting foresight research in the United States, the European Union, Japan, as well as in Kazakhstan, Belarus and Russia is summarized. It is emphasized that the experience of domestic and foreign foresight should be organized taking into account the specifics of the following numerous components of the foresight process: purpose and objectives of the study, way of presenting the future and results, information sources, approach to organization, process structure, procedure and stages of research, research methods and their combination, priority area, scale, field of implementation and scope, focus and time horizon, initiators and performers, range of stakeholders and potential users, results obtained and end effects, sources of funding. As a result of the analysis of the achievements of Ukrainian scientists and the domestic practice of applying the methods of scientific prediction, it is concluded that Ukraine is at the initial stage of the development of foresight technologies.

The Cybernetic Prediction

This chapter explores the often overlooked area of cybernetic prediction, a form of prediction conceptualized by the ‘father’ of cybernetics, the US mathematician Norbert Wiener, during the 1940s–1960s. Although critical interest in the cultural and political histories of cybernetics is growing, the notion of scientific prediction, which is central to cybernetic control, is insufficiently examined. This chapter argues that this form of prediction is not a mere technical cog in the epistemology of the future, but a complex concept. It demonstrates that Wiener’s epistemology of cybernetic prediction emphasizes the role of uncertainty and does not replace materiality with information. The chapter concludes with a reflection on the useful lessons offered by Wiener’s concept of cybernetic prediction for future-oriented practices within the broader fields of contemporary science, governance, and politics.

Scientific Prediction of the Covid-19 Pandemic and What Should Society Do?

What is the scientific prediction for the Covid-19 pandemic? Currently, as of April 8, the world’s confirmed cases have over 1.2 million, the death of more than 72 thousand. For Indonesia, today 2,738 confirmed cases, 221 deaths, and those who recovered 204.1-3. The update on April 8 today, WHO itself estimates that the Covid-19 Contagion Rate is 1.4 to 2.5. This will form the basis of predictive modeling. Several studies conducted show that currently the basic reproduction number or R0 of Covid-19 is higher than SARS. Initially in the range of 2-3 or an average of 2.5, currently R0 is 1.4 - 6.9. This is what will form the basis of modeling. R0 or the basic reproduction number shows how many people a person can become infected with. If the R0 is more than 1, we are in an epidemic status as it is today, R0 = 1 endemic, and our R0 is less than 1 we have eradicated. R0 itself consists of three components, namely p: transmission, c: number of contact, and D which is the duration of the infection itself. These calculations are the main points in modeling.

Construction of Theoretical Capital Progress Curve Model of Power Grid Infrastructure Project Based on Contract Payment Terms

In order to implement the central government’s major deployment of preventing and punishing statistical falsification, improving the authenticity of statistical data, and further improving the science and accuracy of power grid project funding forecasts. By studying the fund payment law of power grid infrastructure project and constructing the theoretical capital progress curve model of power grid infrastructure project, the progress and time point of fund payment in each link of the whole process of the project can be effectively controlled. Scientific prediction of the project life cycle at all stages of the fund demand, financing arrangements and payment control to provide a reference.

The Use of the Available Research Evidence to Crack the Padlock of Sars-CoV-2

It was known earlier that although, SARS-CoV was controlled more than a decade ago, more SARS-like coronaviruses which have been isolated in bats can use the human angiotensin converting enzyme-2 (ACE2) receptor to replicate to high levels in primary human airway, and they had the potential to cause new epidemics. Now, we should remember that it was concluded from earlier experiences that the first and most effective line of defense against a new viral pandemic in the early phases, are antiviral drugs not vaccines developed after rather a lengthy time. The unexpected high mortality associated with the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 in countries like the United States and the United Kingdom confirmed the earlier scientific prediction of the inadequate preparedness of the world to victoriously combat a new virus pandemic. The rational scientific approach to face a potentially fatal viral pandemic with no known effective specific therapies dictate the early use of all the useful preliminary research evidence with prioritizing emphasis on safety to avoid making more harm than good in such situation. We have previously published an evidence-based keys to the therapeutic challenge associated with the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. The aim of this paper is to provide and important updates to keys to the therapeutic challenge which are hoped to help in cracking the padlock of SARS-CoV-2.