Multienergy Load Forecasting for Regional Integrated Energy Systems Considering Multienergy Coupling of Variation Characteristic Curves

Multienergy load forecasting (MELF) is the premise of regional integrated energy systems (RIES) production planning and energy dispatch. The key of MELF is the consideration of multienergy coupling and the improvement of prediction accuracy. Therefore, a MELF method considering the multienergy coupling of variation characteristic curves (MELF_MECVCC) for RIES is proposed. The novelty of MELF_MECVCC lies in the following three aspects. 1) For the trend stripping and volatility extraction of multienergy load time series, the extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition-sample entropy (ESMD-SE) method is introduced to decompose and reconstruct the variation characteristic curves of multienergy, including trend curve and fluctuation curve. 2) The multienergy coupling of the variation characteristic curves is considered to reflect the variation characteristics of the multienergy loads. 3) Different methods are applied according to different variation characteristics; i.e., the combined method based on multitask learning and long short-term memory network (MTL-LSTM) is applied to predict the trend curve with strong correlation and the least square support vector regression (LSSVR) method is applied to predict the fluctuation curve with strong volatility and high complexity. Based on the actual data set of the University of Texas in Austin, the MELF_MECVCC model is simulated and verified, which shows that the model reduces the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the root mean square error (RMSE) and fits better with the original load and has higher prediction accuracy, compared with current advanced algorithms.

Estimates of phenotypic and genetic trends of growth traits in N'dama herd in Nigeria

Data on birth weight (BTHWT), 205-day adjusted weaning weighi (ADWNWT), and pre-weaning daily gain (ADG) of N'Dama reared at Fasola Stock Farm between 1947 and 1984 were obtained and used to estimate phenotype and genetic trends of these traits. Estimated phenotypic trend was 0.07+0.02 kg/vr, 0.18-0.06kg/yr and -0.005 +0.003kg/yr for BTHWT, ADWNWT and ADG respectively. In contrast, all estimated genetic trends were relatively small and not significantly different from zero. They were 0.02+0.05kg/yr, 0.02+0.05kg/yr and 0.1g/yr for BTHWT, ADWNWT and ADG respectively. The sequential polynomial fitting of the data set indicated that quadratic function adequately described the data with the following regression equation: Y = 9.91 + 0.016 + 0.026 Y = 46.44 - 0.156 + 0.0162 Y = 0.21 - 0.00025 + 1.1862 for BTHWT, ADWNWT and ADG respectively for phenotypic trend curve while for genetic trend curve Y = 0.10 -0.016-0.346' was obtained for BTHWT and ADWNWT and Y = 0.002 - 0.00026' - 70.85b for ADG.

Rencana Umum Kapal Katamaran Tipe Glass Bottom Untuk Sarana Pariwisata di Kepulauan Derawan, Kabupaten Berau, Kalimantan Timur

[ID] Banyak wisatawan yang berkunjung di Kepulauan Derawan, sebagian besar melakukan kegiatan penyelaman. Namun, jumlah kunjungan ini tidak diimbangi dengan sarana transportasi laut yang layak teknis dan layak laut. Tujuan penelitian ini yakni menemukan data-data berupa ukuran utama, rencana garis, dan rencana umum desain kapal katamaran. Metodelogi yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yakni dengan Trend Curve Approach dan optimasi desain dengan software Maxurf Modeler Advanced. Hasil penelitian yang didapat adalah ukuran utama kapal dengan rincian sebagai berikut; L = 21m, B =10m, B1 =2.4m, H = 5m, T = 2m, Vs = 10 knot, Cb = 0.33, Daya Mesin = 86 HP (Untuk 1 Mesin), Jumlah Penumpang dan Kru = 87 Orang. [EN] Many tourists visiting the Derawan Islands, most do diving. However, the number of visits is not balanced with the means of sea transportation that is technically feasible and seaworthy. The purpose of this study was to find data in the form of main dimention, lines plan, and general arragement for the design of glass bottom catamaran vessels. The methodology used in this study is the Trend Curve Approach and design optimization with Maxurf Modeler Advanced software. The results of the research obtained are the main size of the ship obtained as follows; L = 21m, B = 10m, B1 = 2.4m, H = 5m, T = 2m, Vs = 10 knots, Cb = 0.33, Engine Power = 86 HP (For 1 Machine), Number of Passengers and Crew = 87 Persons.

Rencana Umum Kapal Katamaran Tipe Glass Bottom Untuk Sarana Pariwisata di Kepulauan Derawan, Kabupaten Berau, Kalimantan Timur

[ID] Banyak wisatawan yang berkunjung di Kepulauan Derawan, sebagian besar melakukan kegiatan penyelaman. Namun, jumlah kunjungan ini tidak diimbangi dengan sarana transportasi laut yang layak teknis dan layak laut. Tujuan penelitian ini yakni menemukan data-data berupa ukuran utama, rencana garis, dan rencana umum desain kapal katamaran. Metodelogi yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yakni dengan Trend Curve Approach dan optimasi desain dengan software Maxurf Modeler Advanced. Hasil penelitian yang didapat adalah ukuran utama kapal dengan rincian sebagai berikut; L = 21m, B =10m, B1 =2.4m, H = 5m, T = 2m, Vs = 10 knot, Cb = 0.33, Daya Mesin = 86 HP (Untuk 1 Mesin), Jumlah Penumpang dan Kru = 87 Orang. [EN] Many tourists visiting the Derawan Islands, most do diving. However, the number of visits is not balanced with the means of sea transportation that is technically feasible and seaworthy. The purpose of this study was to find data in the form of main dimention, lines plan, and general arragement for the design of glass bottom catamaran vessels. The methodology used in this study is the Trend Curve Approach and design optimization with Maxurf Modeler Advanced software. The results of the research obtained are the main size of the ship obtained as follows; L = 21m, B = 10m, B1 = 2.4m, H = 5m, T = 2m, Vs = 10 knots, Cb = 0.33, Engine Power = 86 HP (For 1 Machine), Number of Passengers and Crew = 87 Persons.

SteBLife – The Enhanced Short-Time Evaluation Procedure for Materials Fatigue Data Generation

The availability of reliable fatigue data is of continuous and often urgent need. The paper to be presented therefore intends to show how the potential of non-destructive testing methods, digitisation in metrology as well as signal processing can be combined in order to achieve a significant gain in information concerning the fatigue behaviour combined with a reduction of required experimental effort and cost. The new SteBLife approach is an enhanced short-time calculation method developed at the Chair of Non-Destructive Testing and Quality Assurance at Saarland University, which takes into account that a material’s elastic-plastic reaction and hence relationship is non-linear. With respect to a test strategy, the number of fatigue experiments required to determine a material’s complete S-N-curve can be limited to three to five tests only (SteBLifemtc, mtc: multiple tests, trend curve and SteBLifemsb, msb: multiple tests, scatter bands) in cases that mean values and/or complete scatter bands of S-N-curves are required. If a trend S-N-curve is sufficient, the effort can be reduced to one single test only (SteBLifestc, stc: single test, trend curve) with a special step-shaped specimen. This leads to a significant improvement in efficiency when compared to the conventional way an S-N-curve is determined where a minimum of 15 fatigue tests is required. Within the work to be presented the SteBLife method is demonstrated for normalized SAE 1045 (C45E) steel.

Design of Catamaran Ship as Inland Waterways Transportation Mode in Samarinda

At the end of 2016 public transport had only reached urban area of Samarinda, and it has not yet accessed the outskirt area of Samarinda. The lack of transportation connecting communities from each region is a problem. The purpose of this research was to design the inland waterways tranportation mode in the out skirt city of Samarinda. The used method was the trend curve and optimization approach. The results showed the principal dimension of ships had lenght over all (Loa) = 12.7 meters, draft (T) = 0.53 meters, the breadth of each hull (B) = 1.3 meters, the total breadth (BT) = 5.5 meters and height (H) = 1.6 meters, Cb = 0.54, Vs = 10 knots, Crew = 4 person, passenger = 36 person.

Material Properties of Reactor Pressure Vessel Shells Affected by Hydrogen Flaking

During the summer outages of 2012, large numbers of nearly-laminar indications were found in the core shells of the Doel 3 and Tihange 2 reactor pressure vessels (RPV). As a consequence, both units remained in cold shutdown with their core unloaded. A series of examinations, tests and inspections were performed leading to the conclusion that the indications are hydrogen flakes and that they do not affect the structural integrity of the RPV, regardless of the operating mode, transient or accident condition. All this was documented in the Safety Case reports issued in December 2012 and in the Safety Case Addenda issued in April 2013 [1]. Based on those reports, the Belgian Federal Agency for Nuclear Control (FANC) authorized the restart of both units which went back on-line in June 2013. A key input required for this Safety Case was the definition of the appropriate material properties, in particular fracture toughness, for the RPV shells affected by hydrogen flakes. A material testing program on non-irradiated materials evaluated aspects like the possible effects of macro-segregations and local segregations (ghost lines) and of specimen orientation on the fracture toughness. The irradiation embrittlement sensitivity of the zone of macro-segregation in which the flakes are located was evaluated on the basis of the maximum enrichment in Cu, P and Ni in macro-segregations based on literature data. This was the basis of the trend curve of RTNDT evolution vs. fluence used in the Safety Cases submitted in 2012–2013. The restart authorization in 2013 was accompanied by a number of “mid-term” requirements, to be completed during the first operating cycle after the restart. One of these requirements was the mechanical testing of irradiated specimens containing hydrogen flakes, in order to confirm the conservativeness of the RTNDT trend curve used for the structural integrity analyses. After a first irradiation campaign of a material containing hydrogen flakes in the BR2 reactor of the Belgian Nuclear Research Center SCK.CEN, atypical results were obtained and the utility decided to shut down the units in March 2014. Detailed investigations involving three additional irradiation campaigns in BR2 including other reference materials, among which another material affected by hydrogen flakes, were performed in order to characterize this atypical behaviour and to derive a new conservative RTNDT trend curve. The resulting trend curve was accepted by the FANC and was used in the 2015 Safety Cases [1]. An overview of the Doel 3 and Tihange 2 safety cases is given in [6]. The paper summarizes the results of the material investigations on non-irradiated and irradiated materials and the process leading to the definition of this conservative RTNDT trend curve.