Report of the NAMMCO-ICES Workshop on Seal Modelling (WKSEALS 2020)

To support sustainable management of apex predator populations, it is important to estimate population size and understand the drivers of population trends to anticipate the consequences of human decisions. Robust population models are needed, which must be based on realistic biological principles and validated with the best available data. A team of international experts reviewed age-structured models of North Atlantic pinniped populations, including Grey seal (Halichoerus grypus), Harp seal (Pagophilus groenlandicus), and Hooded seal (Cystophora cristata). Statistical methods used to fit such models to data were compared and contrasted. Differences in biological assumptions and model equations were driven by the data available from separate studies, including observation methodology and pre-processing. Counts of pups during the breeding season were used in all models, with additional counts of adults and juveniles available in some. The regularity and frequency of data collection, including survey counts and vital rate estimates, varied. Important differences between the models concerned the nature and causes of variation in vital rates (age-dependent survival and fecundity). Parameterisation of age at maturity was detailed and time-dependent in some models and simplified in others. Methods for estimation of model parameters were reviewed and compared. They included Bayesian and maximum likelihood (ML) approaches, implemented via bespoke coding in C, C++, TMB or JAGS. Comparative model runs suggested that as expected, ML-based implementations were rapid and computationally efficient, while Bayesian approaches, which used MCMC or sequential importance sampling, required longer for inference. For grey seal populations in the Netherlands, where preliminary ML-based TMB results were compared with the outputs of a Bayesian JAGS implementation, some differences in parameter estimates were apparent. For these seal populations, further investigations are recommended to explore differences that might result from the modelling framework and model-fitting methodology, and their importance for inference and management advice. The group recommended building on the success of this workshop via continued collaboration with ICES and NAMMCO assessment groups, as well as other experts in the marine mammal modelling community. Specifically, for Northeast Atlantic harp and hooded seal populations, the workshop represents the initial step towards a full ICES benchmark process aimed at revising and evaluating new assessment models.

Estimates of Cetacean Abundance in the North Atlantic of Relevance to NAMMCO

The best available abundance estimates for cetacean species in areas of relevance to the work of NAMMCO since 1986 are presented and the references to the original sources is provided.

Distribution and Abundance of the Eastern Canada – West Greenland Bowhead Whale Population Based on the 2013 High Arctic Cetacean Survey

The hunting of bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) is an integral part of Inuit culture. An up-to-date abundance estimate of the entire Eastern Canada – West Greenland (EC-WG) bowhead population is necessary to support sustainable management of this harvest. The High Arctic Cetacean Survey (HACS) was conducted in August 2013, primarily to update abundance estimates for known stocks of Baffin Bay narwhal (Monodon monoceros). As the ranges of narwhal and bowhead largely overlap, the survey area was expanded to cover the summer range of bowhead whales. Bowhead whale abundance was estimated using 3 aircraft to cover the large survey area within a short time frame. Distance sampling methods were used to estimate detection probability away from the track line. Double platform with mark-recapture methods were used to correct for the proportion of whales missed by visual observers on the track line (perception bias). Abundance in Isabella Bay, an area known for high bowhead density, was estimated using density surface modelling to account for its complex shape and uneven coverage. Estimates were corrected for availability bias (whales that were not available for detection because they were submerged when the aircraft passed overhead) using a recent analysis of satellite-linked time depth recorders transmitting information on the diving behaviour of bowhead whales in the study area in August of the same survey year. The fully corrected abundance estimate for the EC-WG bowhead whale population was 6,446 (95% CI: 3,838–10,827). Possible sources of uncertainty include incomplete coverage and the diving behaviour of bowhead whales. These results confirm earlier indications that the EC-WG stock is continuing to recover from past overexploitation.

Distribution and Abundance of Killer Whales in the Central North Atlantic, 1987-2015

The North Atlantic Sightings Surveys (NASS), covering a large but variable portion of the Central and Eastern North Atlantic, were conducted in 1987, 1989, 1995, 2001, 2007 and 2015. Sightings of killer whales (Orcinus orca), a non-target species, were relatively rare in the Central Atlantic (Icelandic and Faroese) portions of the survey area. In cases where sighting numbers were insufficient, we pooled sightings over several surveys to derive a distance detection function and used this to estimate abundance using standard Distance Sampling methodology. Uncorrected estimates were produced for all surveys, and estimates corrected for perception bias were produced for the 2001 and 2015 surveys. Killer whales were sighted in all areas but were most common in the eastern part of the survey area. Uncorrected abundance in the NASS core area ranged from a low of 4,736 (95% CI: 1,842–12,176) in 1995 to a maximum of 15,142 (95% CI: 6,003–38,190) in 2001. The low precision of the estimates makes the detection of temporal trends unlikely. In 2007 an extension survey revealed relatively high numbers of killer whales to the east of the survey area, in conformity with Norwegian survey estimates in this area. The NASS and other surveys conducted over the period indicate that killer whales number in the low tens of thousands in the Central and Eastern North Atlantic.

Narwhal Abundance in the Eastern Canadian High Arctic in 2013

In summer, narwhals (Monodon monoceros) migrate from Baffin Bay to northeastern Canada and northwest Greenland, where they are hunted by Inuit for subsistence. To prevent localized depletion, management of narwhals is based on summer stocks. The High Arctic Cetacean Survey (HACS), conducted in August 2013, was the first survey to estimate abundance of all 4 Canadian Baffin Bay narwhal summer stocks, as well as putative stocks in Jones Sound and Smith Sound, in the same summer. Narwhal abundance was estimated using a double-platform aerial survey. Distance sampling methods were used to estimate detection probability away from the track line. Mark-recapture methods were used to correct for the proportion of narwhals missed by visual observers on the track line (i.e., perception bias). We used a data-driven approach to identify single and duplicate sightings, using 4 covariates to compare differences in sightings made by front and rear observers based on: time of sighting, declination angle, group size, and species identity. Abundance in fjords was estimated using density surface modelling to account for their complex shape and uneven coverage. Estimates were corrected for availability bias (narwhals that are not available for detection because they are submerged when the aircraft passes overhead) using a new analysis of August dive behaviour data from narwhals equipped with satellite-linked time depth recorders. Corrected abundance estimates were 12,694 (95% CI: 6,324–25,481) for the Jones Sound stock; 16,360 (95% CI: 3,833–69,836) for the Smith Sound stock; 49,768 (95% CI: 32,945–75,182) for the Somerset Island stock; 35,043 (95% CI: 14,188–86,553) for the Admiralty Inlet stock; 10,489 (95% CI: 6,342–17,347) for the Eclipse Sound stock; and 17,555 (95% CI: 8,473–36,373) for the East Baffin Island stock. Total abundance for these 6 stocks was estimated at 141,908 (95% CI: 102,464–196,536). Sources of uncertainty arise from the high level of clustering observed, in particular in Admiralty Inlet, Eclipse Sound, and East Baffin Island, as well as the difficulty in identifying duplicate sightings between observers when large aggregations were encountered.

The Geometer: A New Device for Recording Angles in Visual Surveys

The Geometer is a new handheld USB device that facilitates a relatively accurate measurement of the declination to a target with instantaneous recording of this and other data. The Geometer offers several advantages over traditional clinometers used in aerial surveys, including easier target pinpointing and tracking, more consistent angle measurements, and integration with software data collection packages. In this note we provide technical specifications for the device and its associated software, and describe a new aerial survey data collection programme that takes full advantage of the features of the Geometer. We have tested this device extensively during aerial surveys and highlight the utility of the hardware as well as ways in which the technology could be improved.

Summer Abundance of Harbour Porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) in the Coastal Waters of Iceland and the Faroe Islands

This study presents the first fully corrected abundance estimates for the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) for Iceland and the Faroe Islands. In both regions reliable estimates are needed to assess the impact of by-catch and other threats to harbour porpoises. Aerial surveys with harbour porpoise as a secondary and main target species were conducted in the summers of 2007 and 2010 in Icelandic and in Faroese coastal waters respectively. In Iceland, the cue counting procedure was used (which also produces the data required for line transect analysis), while in the Faroese, standard line transect sampling was applied, following the SCANS-II (Small Cetacean Abundance in the North Sea) survey protocol. In both surveys, identical aircraft surveyed at an altitude of 600 ft and a speed of 90–100 kn. Only data collected during Beaufort Sea States (BSS) lower than 3 and during good or moderate porpoise sighting conditions were used for abundance estimates. Abundance estimates were corrected using stratified estimates of esw (incorporating g(0)) values derived during the SCANS-II survey in 2005 as principal observers took part in this survey as well. In Iceland, realised effort in good or moderate harbour porpoise sighting conditions totalled 8,289 km in 13 survey strata, where 77 sightings (109 individuals) were made by the experienced harbour porpoise observer only. In Faroese waters, only part of the area inside the 300 m depth curve could be surveyed and 1,564 km were surveyed in good or moderate porpoise sighting conditions, yielding 39 sightings (49 individuals). The total abundance estimates were 43,179 porpoises (CV=0.45; 95% CI: 31,755–161,899) for Icelandic coastal waters and 5,175 porpoises (CV=0.44; 95% CI: 3,457–17,637) for Faroese waters.

Estimated Abundances of Cetacean Species in the Northeast Atlantic from Norwegian Shipboard Surveys Conducted in 2014–2018

A ship-based mosaic survey of Northeast Atlantic cetaceans was conducted over a 5-year period between 2014–2018. The area surveyed extends from the North Sea in the south (southern boundary at 53oN), to the ice edge of the Barents Sea and the Greenland Sea. Survey vessels were equipped with 2 independent observer platforms that detected whales in passing mode and applied tracking procedures for the target species, common minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata acutorostrata). Here we present abundance estimates for all non-target species for which there were sufficient sightings. We estimate the abundance of fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) to be 11,387 (CV=0.17, 95% CI: 8,072–16,063), of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) to be 10,708 (CV=0.38, 95% CI: 4,906–23,370), of sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) to be 5,704 (CV=0.26, 95% CI: 3,374–9,643), of killer whales (Orcinus orca) to be 15,056 (CV=0.29, 95% CI: 8,423–26,914), of harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) to be 255,929 (CV=0.20, 95% CI: 172,742–379,175), dolphins of genus Lagenorhynchus to be 192,767 (CV=0.25, 95% CI: 114,033–325,863), and finally of northern bottlenose whales (Hyperoodon ampullatus) to be 7,800 (CV=0.28, 95% CI: 4,373–13,913). Additionally, our survey effort in the Norwegian Sea in 2015 contributed to the 6th North Atlantic Sightings Survey (NASS) and the survey was extended into the waters north and east of Iceland around Jan Mayen island. This NASS extension, along with our Norwegian Sea survey in 2015, was used to estimate the abundance of fin whales, humpback whales, and sperm whales. All estimates presented used mark-recapture distance sampling techniques and were thus corrected for perception bias. Our estimates do not account for additional variance due to distributional shifts between years or biases due to availability or responsive movement.