The Challenges at Work

This chapter presents the results of two statistical analyses: one comparing transitions initiated by nonviolent resistance (civil resistance transitions) with all other types of political transitions from 1945 until 2011, and a second looking at the effects of the challenges of transitional mobilization and maximalism within civil resistance transitions. The analysis finds strong support for the book’s two key empirical claims: that civil resistance transitions are much more likely to end in democracy than other types of transition, and that high levels of mobilization and low levels of maximalism during civil resistance transitions are key in leading to this democratizing effect.

The Challenges of Civil Resistance Transitions

What are the effects of nonviolent (civil) resistance on political transitions? This chapter examines what we know about the relationship between nonviolent resistance and political order and uses that established knowledge to argue for a novel theory of civil resistance transitions. Civil resistance gives countries a democratic advantage relative to other ways of initiating a political transition. But that advantage must be carried through the uncertainty of the transitional period. Two key challenges can undermine this advantage: a failure to maintain high levels of social and political mobilization and a failure to direct mobilization away from revolutionary maximalist goals and tactics into new institutional avenues. The chapter details the mechanisms of civil resistance transitions that these challenges undermine and the unique regime types that variation in these challenges leads to.

Introduction to Case Study Chapters

The three chapters that follow present case studies of political dynamics in transitions following civil resistance movements. The goal of these chapters is not to perform a strict comparison to tease out causal impact but rather to examine the dynamics of the two transitional challenges of mobilization and maximalism in three specific environments. Having shown that a quantitative correlation exists between these challenges and posttransition democracy, do we observe that relationship in actual cases? What are the observable impacts of each challenge in specific historical cases? In other words, through the case studies I am seeking not to establish a causal effect but to examine a set of causal mechanisms (...

Mobilization and Moderation in Brazil

This chapter presents the third and final case study of civil resistance transitions (CRTs) and the impact of the challenges of mobilization and maximalism in CRTs. The case examined is the transition to democracy in Brazil in the 1980s following the Diretas Ja campaign against Brazil’s military dictatorship. The case study finds that high levels of social and political mobilization, combined with low levels of maximalism, facilitated a successful transition to democracy in Brazil. Civil society groups that fought against the military dictatorship continued their activism during the transition, pushing for progressive constitutional protections and fighting against corruption. The result is a robust, though imperfect democratic regime.

“Power Is Sweet”

This chapter presents the second of three case studies of civil resistance transitions (CRTs) and the impact of the challenges of mobilization and maximalism in CRTs. The case examined is the transition in Zambia following the Movement for Multiparty Democracy’s campaign against Zambia’s one-party authoritarian regime. The case study finds that low levels of mobilization during the transition led to a lack of accountability for new leaders, facilitating an increase in corruption and derailing Zambia’s move to democracy. Instead the regime that has been consolidated over time is an elite semi-democracy, in which elites dominate the politics for their own benefit and ordinary people have little impact on political outcomes.

“The Elephant’s Tail”

This chapter presents the first of three case studies of civil resistance transitions (CRTs) and the impact of the challenges of mobilization and maximalism in CRTs. The case examined is the transition in Nepal following the 2006 Second People’s Movement that overthrew the Nepali monarchy. The case study shows that while the Nepali transition had high levels of social mobilization, its high levels of maximalism have undermined the consolidation of new democratic institutions and led to Nepal’s transitioning to a fractious semi-democracy. Nepal’s various political forces have used revolutionary goals and tactics to undermine each other’s power position and prevent the establishment of new democratic institutions. As a result, a new democratic regime has been slow to appear and is fragile to authoritarian reversal.

Introduction

Why do nonviolent revolutions sometimes go so wrong? Scholars have found that nonviolent resistance promotes democratic transitions, but have not yet developed explanations for when this effect will occur and when it will not. This introduction places this central puzzle in the wider scholarly literature and debates over the decline of democracy and previews the argument and evidence made in the remainder of the book: transitions after nonviolent revolutions (civil resistance transitions) become democracies or not based on the patterns of political behavior during the transitional period. When there is high mobilization and low maximalism, democracy is likely. The introduction then defines the key terms for the study and lays out the evidence to be presented.

Civil Resistance and Democratization

This chapter concludes the study of civil resistance transitions (CRTs), summarizing the evidence from the quantitative and qualitative studies. It speaks to the limitations of the study, including its inability to speak to the effects of failed civil resistance campaigns on democratization, dependence on specific conceptualizations of civil resistance and democracy, and the important moderating effects of context. It also presents new research avenues opened by these findings: theorizing and testing additional challenges of CRTs, expanding the focus on mobilization and maximalism to other types of transition, and examining the sources of mobilization and maximalism. The chapter also presents lessons for how to promote democracy in civil resistance transitions, informed by the findings of the research, such as encouraging long-term positive visions of democratic change and training opposition and civil society leaders to be prepared for the specific challenges of transition.