scholarly journals No significant difference between Australian heat wave impacts of Modoki and eastern Pacific El Niño

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (10) ◽  
pp. 5150-5157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tammas F. Loughran ◽  
Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick ◽  
Lisa V. Alexander ◽  
Andrew J. Pitman
2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 73
Author(s):  
Budi Prasetyo ◽  
Nikita Pusparini

Pulau Sulawesi dipengaruhi oleh fenomena Central Pacific (CP) dan Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño. Curah hujan Sulawesi mencakup ketiga pola hujan yang ada di Indonesia yaitu Monsunal, equatorial, dan lokal. Variabilitas ketiga pola curah hujan tersebut akan memberikan respon yang berbeda terhadap pengaruh dari kedua tipe El Niño tersebut. Maka, Kajian ini akan membahas pengaruh dari kedua tipe El Niño  terhadap curah hujan Sulawesi. Penelitian ini Menggunakan data curah hujan bulanan berasal dari Climate Prediction Center (CPC) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Suhu Permukaan Laut (SPL) bulanan dari System Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) versi 2.2.4 dan oceanic Niño Indeks (ONI) dengan periode  Januari 1950 hingga Desember 2010 (60 tahun). Perhitungan statistik sederhana berupa perata-rataan, korelasi, dan analisa komposit digunakan dalam kajian ini. Penentuan tipe El Niño menggunakan tiga buah indeks yang berbeda. Hasilnya diperoleh bahwa Curah hujan Sulawesi berkurang saat kedua tipe El Niño. Penurunan curah hujan akibat EP El Niño berkisar antara 5 – 20 mm sedangkan akibat CP El Niño berkisar antara 2-12 mm. Wilayah Sulawesi dengan pola curah hujan monsunal merupakan wilayah yang mengalami penurunan curah hujan terbesar akibat kedua tipe El Niño tersebut, kemudian diikuti dengan pola curah hujan equatorial dan terakhir Lokal.


2019 ◽  
Vol 54 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 901-918 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aude Carréric ◽  
Boris Dewitte ◽  
Wenju Cai ◽  
Antonietta Capotondi ◽  
Ken Takahashi ◽  
...  

2013 ◽  
Vol 40 (15) ◽  
pp. 4115-4120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chaim I. Garfinkel ◽  
Margaret M. Hurwitz ◽  
Luke D. Oman ◽  
Darryn W. Waugh

2018 ◽  
Vol 130 ◽  
pp. 140-159
Author(s):  
Yves Morel ◽  
Sulian Thual ◽  
Thierry Delcroix ◽  
Nick Hall ◽  
Gaël Alory

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (18) ◽  
pp. 6805-6822 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mei Zhao ◽  
Harry H. Hendon ◽  
Oscar Alves ◽  
Guoqiang Liu ◽  
Guomin Wang

Abstract Predictive skill for El Niño in the equatorial eastern Pacific across a range of forecast models declined sharply in the early twenty-first century relative to what was achieved in the late twentieth century despite ongoing improvements of forecast systems. This decline coincided with a shift in Pacific climate to an enhanced east–west surface temperature gradient across the Pacific and a stronger Walker circulation at the end of the twentieth century. Using seasonal forecast sensitivity experiments with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology coupled model POAMA2.4, the authors show that this shift in background climate acted to weaken key ocean–atmosphere feedbacks that amplify eastern Pacific El Niño, thus resulting in weaker variability that is less predictable. These results indicate that extreme El Niños, such as those that occurred in 1982/83 and 1997/98, were conditioned by the background climate and so were favored to occur in the late twentieth century. However, anticipating future changes in El Niño variability and predictability is an outstanding challenge because causes and prediction of low-frequency variations of Pacific climate have not yet been demonstrated.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianwei Chi ◽  
Tangdong Qu ◽  
Yan Du ◽  
Jifeng Qi ◽  
Ping Shi

AbstractThis study investigates the interannual modes of the tropical Pacific using salinity from observations, ocean reanalysis output and CMIP6 products. Here we propose two indices of sea surface salinity (SSS), a monopole mode and a dipole mode, to identify the El Niño—South Oscillation (ENSO) and its diversity, respectively. The monopole mode is primarily controlled by atmospheric forcing, namely, the enhanced precipitation that induces negative SSS anomalies across nearly the entire tropical Pacific. The dipole mode is mainly forced by oceanic dynamics, with zonal current transporting fresh water from the western fresh pool into the western-central and salty water from the subtropics into the eastern tropical Pacific. Under a global warming condition, an increase in the monopole and dipole mode variance indicates an increase in both the central and eastern Pacific El Niño variability. The increase in central Pacific El Niño variability is largely due to enhanced vertical stratification during global warming in the upper layer, with intensified zonal advection. An eastern Pacific El Niño-like warming pattern contributes to the increase in eastern Pacific El Niño, with enhanced precipitation over the central-eastern tropical Pacific.


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