scholarly journals Weakened Eastern Pacific El Niño Predictability in the Early Twenty-First Century

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (18) ◽  
pp. 6805-6822 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mei Zhao ◽  
Harry H. Hendon ◽  
Oscar Alves ◽  
Guoqiang Liu ◽  
Guomin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
First Century ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Eastern Pacific El Niño ◽  
Early Twenty ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Background Climate ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

Abstract Predictive skill for El Niño in the equatorial eastern Pacific across a range of forecast models declined sharply in the early twenty-first century relative to what was achieved in the late twentieth century despite ongoing improvements of forecast systems. This decline coincided with a shift in Pacific climate to an enhanced east–west surface temperature gradient across the Pacific and a stronger Walker circulation at the end of the twentieth century. Using seasonal forecast sensitivity experiments with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology coupled model POAMA2.4, the authors show that this shift in background climate acted to weaken key ocean–atmosphere feedbacks that amplify eastern Pacific El Niño, thus resulting in weaker variability that is less predictable. These results indicate that extreme El Niños, such as those that occurred in 1982/83 and 1997/98, were conditioned by the background climate and so were favored to occur in the late twentieth century. However, anticipating future changes in El Niño variability and predictability is an outstanding challenge because causes and prediction of low-frequency variations of Pacific climate have not yet been demonstrated.

scholarly journals Listening to Advisors: A Conversation About Readers’ Advisory Services, Practice, and Practicing

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 2
Author(s):  
Neal Wyatt
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Public Library ◽  
First Century ◽  
The Public ◽  
Early Twenty ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Book Group ◽  
Reference Tools ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

As RA service has moved from its second-wave renaissance during the late twentieth century/early twenty-first century (with a steady stream of reference tools, conference programming, and think pieces) into an often underpromoted but bedrock mainstay of the public library, what do advisors continue to discuss among themselves and see as areas of need? If you could gather a handful of advisors together, over a cup of coffee one rainy morning before book group began, what would they talk about? What would they ask each other? What do they know to be foundational about the service? As important, what might they suggest we all re-think? This column invites you to eavesdrop on such a conversation. It was conducted over email between six advisors: two at the start of their careers, two helping to define the field, and two who have lead the way for librarians, for a combined eight decades. These advisors share research, hard-won and lived-in lessons, showcase the luminous nature of RA work as well as its difficulties, propose a change for RA education, and, of course, each suggests a book to read.

scholarly journals A comparison of bioclimatic potential in two global regions during the late twentieth century and early twenty-first century

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 609-620 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria G. Lebedeva ◽  
Anthony R. Lupo ◽  
Chasity B. Henson ◽  
Alexandr B. Solovyov ◽  
Yury G. Chendev ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
First Century ◽  
Early Twenty ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

scholarly journals Daniel Call’s Schocker: German Knittelvers in the late twentieth century

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 7-30
Author(s):  
David Chisholm
Keyword(s):  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Eighteenth Century ◽  
Fifteenth Century ◽  
First Century ◽  
Early Twenty ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Verse Form ◽  
Verse Forms ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

The word “Knittelvers” has been used since the eighteenth century to describe four-stress rhyming couplets which seem to be rather simply and awkwardly constructed, and whose content is frequently comical, course, vulgar or obscene. Today German Knittelvers is perhaps best known from the works of Goethe and Schiller, as well as other late eighteenth and early nineteenth century writers.Well-known examples occur together with other verse forms in Goethe’s Faust and Schiller’s Wallensteins Lager, as well as in ballads and occasional poems by both poets. While literary critics have shown considerable interest in Knittelvers written from the fifteenth to the eighteenth century, there has been almost no discussion of the further use and development of this verse form from the nineteenth century to the present, despite the fact that it continues to appear in both humorous and serious works by many contemporary German writers. This article focuses on an example of dramatic Knittelvers in a late twentieth century play, namely Daniel Call’s comedy Schocker, a modern parody of Goethe’s Faust. Among other things, Call’s play, as well as other examples of Knittelvers in works by twentieth and early twenty-first century poets, demonstrates that while this verse form has undergone some changes and variations, it still retains metrical characteristics which have remained constant since the fifteenth century. Today these four-stress couplets continue to function as a means of depicting comic, mock-heroic and tragicomic situations by means of parody, farce and burlesque satire.

scholarly journals Sounds Real and Imagined:

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-110
Author(s):  
Denise Ruth Von Glahn
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Natural World ◽  
First Century ◽  
Aesthetic Responses ◽  
Early Twenty ◽  
Libby Larsen ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

In a career spanning more than four decades, American composer Libby Larsen has turned to the natural world for inspiration on dozens of occasions: her piece Up Where the Air Gets Thin is just one of the results. Unlike many of her nature-based works which provide primarily aesthetic responses to the sights, sounds, feel, and smells of the natural environment, this 1985 duet for contrabass and cello comments on the limits of non-verbal communication and the impact of climate change. It is simultaneously reflective and didactic. “Sounds Real and Imagined” considers the ways Larsen marshals minimal musical materials and a sonic vocabulary that she associates with stillness and cold, in combination with her commitment to environmental awareness and advocacy. It situates the historic 1953 ascent of Mt. Everest by Sir Edmund Hillary and Tensing Norgay within the context of late-twentieth-century artistic responses and an early twenty-first century musicologist-listener’s consciousness.

scholarly journals M2 Models and Methodologies for Community Engagement:

IDEA JOURNAL ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 120-123
Author(s):  
Elke Krasny
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Community Engagement ◽  
Community Planning ◽  
First Century ◽  
Situated Knowledge ◽  
Early Twenty ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

The debate over both community and planning and the large issue of their coming together in community planning reflected the economic and political changes since the 1970s. In the late twentieth century and early twenty-first century socially-driven planning more broadly addressed the issues and concerns of what community is in a locally given context and in a globally transforming world. Lived difference and situated knowledge distinguish one community from another community. The effects of globalisation, neocolonialism, neoliberalism and austerity impact communities around the globe.

scholarly journals Late-twentieth-century emergence of the El Niño propagation asymmetry and future projections

Nature ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 504 (7478) ◽  
pp. 126-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agus Santoso ◽  
Shayne McGregor ◽  
Fei-Fei Jin ◽  
Wenju Cai ◽  
Matthew H. England ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

scholarly journals Short-term climate change and the extinction of the snail Rhachistia aldabrae (Gastropoda: Pulmonata)

2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 581-585 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin Gerlach
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
First Century ◽  
Direct Result ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Early Twenty ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Rainfall Patterns ◽  
Late Twentieth Century ◽  
Stable Habitat

The only known population of the Aldabra banded snail Rhachistia aldabrae declined through the late twentieth century, leading to its extinction in the late 1990s. This occurred within a stable habitat and its extinction is attributable to decreasing rainfall on Aldabra atoll, associated with regional changes in rainfall patterns in the late twentieth and early twenty-first century. It is proposed that the extinction of this species is a direct result of decreasing rainfall leading to increased mortality of juvenile snails.

scholarly journals Evaluation of flood damage reduction throughout Japan from adaptation measures taken under a range of emissions mitigation scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 165 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Yamamoto ◽  
So Kazama ◽  
Yoshiya Touge ◽  
Hayata Yanagihara ◽  
Tsuyoshi Tada ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
First Century ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Damage Cost ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Inundation Depth ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

AbstractThis study aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change on flood damage and the effects of mitigation measures and combinations of multiple adaptation measures in reducing flood damage. The inundation depth was calculated using a two-dimensional unsteady flow model. The flood damage cost was estimated from the unit evaluation value set for each land use and prefectures and the calculated inundation depth distribution. To estimate the flood damage in the near future and the late twenty-first century, five global climate models were used. These models provided daily precipitation, and the change of the extreme precipitation was calculated. In addition to the assessment of the impacts of climate change, certain adaptation measures (land-use control, piloti building, and improvement of flood control level) were discussed, and their effects on flood damage cost reduction were evaluated. In the case of the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, the damage cost in the late twenty-first century will increase to 57% of that in the late twentieth century. However, if mitigation measures were to be undertaken according to RCP2.6 standards, the increase of the flood damage cost will stop, and the increase of the flood damage cost will be 28% of that in the late twentieth century. By implementing adaptation measures in combination rather than individually, it is possible to keep the damage cost in the future period even below that in the late twentieth century. By implementing both mitigation and adaptation measures, it is possible to reduce the flood damage cost in the late twenty-first century to 69% of that in the late twentieth century.

An Introduction to Tourism Policing and a Brief History

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-30
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Community Policing ◽  
Private Security ◽  
First Century ◽  
Historical Overview ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Similarities And Differences ◽  
Specific Material ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

Chapter 1 explores what tourism policing and private security are and how they differ from other forms of policing. The chapter provides a brief historical overview of American tourism policing in the late twentieth century and twenty-first century. The chapter addresses the similarities and differences between tourism policing and community policing, how they influence each other and where they separate. Finally, this chapter provides a literary overview of the pertinent literature that regarding tourism policing and addresses the lack of specific material in this field.

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