scholarly journals Effects of El Niño on Summertime Ozone Air Quality in the Eastern United States

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (24) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Shen ◽  
Loretta J. Mickley
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Eastern United States

scholarly journals Diagnosis of Anomalous Winter Temperatures over the Eastern United States during the 2002/03 El Niño

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (21) ◽  
pp. 5624-5636 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Goddard ◽  
Arun Kumar ◽  
Martin P. Hoerling ◽  
Anthony G. Barnston
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Temperature Pattern ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Winter Temperatures ◽  
The U.S

Abstract The eastern United States experienced an unusually cold winter season during the 2002/03 El Niño event. The U.S. seasonal forecasts did not suggest an enhanced likelihood for below-normal temperatures over the eastern United States in that season. A postmortem analysis examining the observed temperatures and the associated forecast is motivated by two fundamental questions: what are these temperature anomalies attributable to, and to what extent were these temperature anomalies predictable? The results suggest that the extreme seasonal temperatures experienced in the eastern United States during December–February (DJF) 2002/03 can be attributed to a combination of several constructively interfering factors that include El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, a persistent positive Pacific–North American (PNA) mode, a persistent negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) mode, and persistent snow cover over the northeastern United States. According to the simulations and predictions from several dynamical atmospheric models, which were not rigorously included in the U.S. forecast, much of the observed temperature pattern was potentially predictable.

scholarly journals Precipitation Characteristics of Warm Season Weather Types in the Southeastern United States of America

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 1001
Author(s):  
Jian-Hua Qian ◽  
Brian Viner ◽  
Stephen Noble ◽  
David Werth
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Gulf Coast ◽  
El Nino ◽  
River Valley ◽  
Northern Great Plains ◽  
Ohio River ◽  
Fair Weather ◽  
Weather Types ◽  
Rainy Weather

Daily weather types (WTs) over the Southeast United States have been analyzed using 850 hPa winds from reanalysis data from March to October of 1979–2019. Six WTs were obtained. WTs 1–3 represent mid-latitude synoptic systems propagating eastward. WT4 is a summer-type pattern predominantly occurring in June–August, with the center of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) along the Gulf coast in the southern United States. WT5 is most frequent from August to middle October, with the NASH pushed further north and southerly winds over the northern Great Plains. An anticyclone centered at the Carolina coast characterizes WT6, which occurs in all months but is slightly more frequent in the spring and fall, especially in October, corresponding to fair weather in the region. WTs 1, 2 and 3 can persist for only a few days. WTs 4, 5 and 6 can have long spells of persistence. Besides self-persistence, the most observed progression loop is WT1 to WT2, to WT3, and then back to WT1, corresponding to eastward-propagating waves. WTs 4 and 5 are likely to show persistence, with long periods of consecutive days. WT6 usually persists but can also transfer to WT3, i.e., a change from fair weather in the Southeast U.S. to rainy weather in the Mississippi River Valley. A diurnal cycle of precipitation is apparent for each WT, especially over coastal plains. The nocturnal precipitation in central U.S. is associated with WT3. WTs 1–3 are more frequent in El Niño years, corresponding to stronger westerly wave activities and above normal rainfall in the Southeast U.S. in the spring. The positive rainfall anomaly in the Mississippi and Ohio River valley in El Niño years is also associated with more frequent WT3.

scholarly journals ENSO’s Modulation of Water Vapor Transport over the Pacific–North American Region

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (9) ◽  
pp. 3846-3856 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hye-Mi Kim ◽  
Michael A. Alexander
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Vapor Transport ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Southwestern United States ◽  
The Pacific

Abstract The vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) over the Pacific–North American sector during three phases of ENSO in boreal winter (December–February) is investigated using IVT values calculated from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) during 1979–2010. The shift of the location and sign of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean leads to different atmospheric responses and thereby changes the seasonal mean moisture transport into North America. During eastern Pacific El Niño (EPEN) events, large positive IVT anomalies extend northeastward from the subtropical Pacific into the northwestern United States following the anomalous cyclonic flow around a deeper Aleutian low, while a southward shift of the cyclonic circulation during central Pacific El Niño (CPEN) events induces the transport of moisture into the southwestern United States. In addition, moisture from the eastern tropical Pacific is transported from the deep tropical eastern Pacific into Mexico and the southwestern United States during CPEN. During La Niña (NINA), the seasonal mean IVT anomaly is opposite to that of two El Niño phases. Analyses of 6-hourly IVT anomalies indicate that there is strong moisture transport from the North Pacific into the northwestern and southwestern United States during EPEN and CPEN, respectively. The IVT is maximized on the southeastern side of a low located over the eastern North Pacific, where the low is weaker but located farther south and closer to shore during CPEN than during EPEN. Moisture enters the southwestern United States from the eastern tropical Pacific during NINA via anticyclonic circulation associated with a ridge over the southern United States.

scholarly journals Impact of the 2015 El Nino event on winter air quality in China

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Luyu Chang ◽  
Jianming Xu ◽  
Xuexi Tie ◽  
Jianbin Wu
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
El Niño Event

scholarly journals Precipitation Prediction Skill for the West Coast United States: From Short to Extended Range

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 161-182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baoxiang Pan ◽  
Kuolin Hsu ◽  
Amir AghaKouchak ◽  
Soroosh Sorooshian ◽  
Wayne Higgins
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
West Coast ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The United States ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Precipitation Prediction ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Extended Range ◽  
To Receive

Abstract Precipitation variability significantly influences the heavily populated West Coast of the United States, raising the need for reliable predictions. We investigate the region’s short- to extended-range precipitation prediction skill using the hindcast database of the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction Project (S2S). The prediction skill–lead time relationship is evaluated, using both deterministic and probabilistic skill scores. Results show that the S2S models display advantageous deterministic skill at week 1. For week 2, prediction is useful for the best-performing model, with a Pearson correlation coefficient larger than 0.6. Beyond week 2, predictions generally provide little useful deterministic skill. Sources of extended-range predictability are investigated, focusing on El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). We found that periods of heavy precipitation associated with ENSO are more predictable at the extended range period. During El Niño years, Southern California tends to receive more precipitation in late winter, and most models show better extended-range prediction skill. On the contrary, during La Niña years Oregon tends to receive more precipitation in winter, with most models showing better extended-range skill. We believe the excessive precipitation and improved extended-range prediction skill are caused by the meridional shift of baroclinic systems as modulated by ENSO. Through examining precipitation anomalies conditioned on the MJO, we verified that active MJO events systematically modulate the area’s precipitation distribution. Our results show that most models do not represent the MJO or its associated teleconnections, especially at phases 3–4. However, some models exhibit enhanced extended-range prediction skills under active MJO conditions.

scholarly journals Evaluation of dust and trace metal estimates from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 5.0

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 883-899 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. W. Appel ◽  
G. A. Pouliot ◽  
H. Simon ◽  
G. Sarwar ◽  
H. O. T. Pye ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Trace Metals ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Air Quality Model ◽  
Quality Model ◽  
Model Version

Abstract. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a state-of-the-science air quality model that simulates the emission, transformation, transport, and fate of the many different air pollutant species that comprise particulate matter (PM), including dust (or soil). The CMAQ model version 5.0 (CMAQv5.0) has several enhancements over the previous version of the model for estimating the emission and transport of dust, including the ability to track the specific elemental constituents of dust and have the model-derived concentrations of those elements participate in chemistry. The latest version of the model also includes a parameterization to estimate emissions of dust due to wind action. The CMAQv5.0 modeling system was used to simulate the entire year 2006 for the continental United States, and the model estimates were evaluated against daily surface-based measurements from several air quality networks. The CMAQ modeling system overall did well replicating the observed soil concentrations in the western United States (mean bias generally around ±0.5 μg m−3); however, the model consistently overestimated the observed soil concentrations in the eastern United States (mean bias generally between 0.5–1.5 μg m−3), regardless of season. The performance of the individual trace metals was highly dependent on the network, species, and season, with relatively small biases for Fe, Al, Si, and Ti throughout the year at the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) sites, while Ca, K, and Mn were overestimated and Mg underestimated. For the urban Chemical Speciation Network (CSN) sites, Fe, Mg, and Mn, while overestimated, had comparatively better performance throughout the year than the other trace metals, which were consistently overestimated, including very large overestimations of Al (380%), Ti (370%) and Si (470%) in the fall. An underestimation of nighttime mixing in the urban areas appears to contribute to the overestimation of trace metals. Removing the anthropogenic fugitive dust (AFD) emissions and the effects of wind-blown dust (WBD) lowered the model soil concentrations. However, even with both AFD emissions and WBD effects removed, soil concentrations were still often overestimated, suggesting that there are other sources of errors in the modeling system that contribute to the overestimation of soil components. Efforts are underway to improve both the nighttime mixing in urban areas and the spatial and temporal distribution of dust-related emission sources in the emissions inventory.

Changes in Observed Daily Precipitation over the United States between 1950–79 and 1980–2009

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. W. Higgins ◽  
V. E. Kousky
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Enso Cycle ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract Changes in observed daily precipitation over the conterminous United States between two 30-yr periods (1950–79 and 1980–2009) are examined using a 60-yr daily precipitation analysis obtained from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Unified Raingauge Database. Several simple measures are used to characterize the changes, including mean, frequency, intensity, and return period. Seasonality is accounted for by examining each measure for four nonoverlapping seasons. The possible role of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle as an explanation for differences between the two periods is also examined. There have been more light (1 mm ≤ P < 10 mm), moderate (10 mm ≤ P < 25 mm), and heavy (P ≥ 25 mm) daily precipitation events (P) in many regions of the country during the more recent 30-yr period with some of the largest and most spatially coherent increases over the Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley during autumn and winter. Some regions, such as portions of the Southeast and the Pacific Northwest, have seen decreases, especially during the winter. Increases in multiday heavy precipitation events have been observed in the more recent period, especially over portions of the Great Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. These changes are associated with changes in the mean and frequency of daily precipitation during the more recent 30-yr period. Difference patterns are strongly related to the ENSO cycle and are consistent with the stronger El Niño events during the more recent 30-yr period. Return periods for both heavy and light daily precipitation events during 1950–79 are shorter during 1980–2009 at most locations, with some notable regional exceptions.

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