The Warm Winter Paradox in the Pliocene High Latitudes

Reconciling palaeodata with model simulations of the Pliocene climate is essential for understanding a world with atmospheric CO2 concentration near 400 parts per million by volume. Both models and data indicate an amplified warming of the high latitudes during the Pliocene, however terrestrial data suggests Pliocene high latitude temperatures were much higher than can be simulated by models. Here we show that understanding the Pliocene high latitude terrestrial temperatures is particularly difficult for the coldest months, where the temperatures obtained from models and different proxies can vary by more than 20 °C. We refer to this mismatch as the ‘warm winter paradox’. Analysis suggests the warm winter paradox could be due to a number of factors including: model structural uncertainty, proxy data not being strongly constrained by winter temperatures, uncertainties on data reconstruction methods and also that the Pliocene high latitude climate does not have a modern analogue. Refinements to model boundary conditions or proxy dating are unlikely to contribute significantly to the resolution of the warm winter paradox. For the Pliocene, high latitude, terrestrial, summer temperatures, models and different proxies are in good agreement. Those factors which cause uncertainty on winter temperatures are shown to be much less important for the summer. Until some of the uncertainties on winter, high latitude, Pliocene temperatures can be reduced, we suggest a data-model comparison should focus on the summer. This is expected to give more meaningful and accurate results than a data-model comparison which focuses on the annual mean.

Can the invasive ambrosia beetle Xylosandrus germanus withstand an unusually cold winter in the West Carpathian forest in Central Europe?

The capability of a non-native species to withstand adverse weather is indicative of its establishment in a novel area. An unusually cold winter of 2016/2017 that occurred in the West Carpathians of Slovakia and other regions within Europe provided an opportunity to indirectly assess survival of the invasive ambrosia beetle Xylosandrus germanus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae). We compared trap captures of this species in the year preceding and succeeding the respective cold winter. Ethanol-baited traps were deployed in 24 oak dominated forest stands within the southern and central area from April to August 2016, and again from April to August 2017 to encompass the seasonal flight activity of X. germanus and to get acquainted with temporal changes in the abundance of this species in these two distant areas. Dispersing X. germanus were recorded in all surveyed stands before and after the aforementioned cold winter. Their total seasonal trap captures were lower in the southern area following low winter temperatures, but remained similar in the central area. Our results suggest that X. germanus can withstand adverse winter weather in oak dominated forests of the West Carpathians within altitudes of 171 and 450 m asl. It is likely that minimum winter temperatures will not reduce the establishment or further spread of this successful invader in forests in Central Europe.

Climate Change in the Hydrometeorological Parameters of the Black and Azov Seas (1980–2020)

To study the nature of climate change in the hydrometeorological parameters of the Black and Azov Seas—surface air temperature (SAT), sea surface temperature (SST), ice cover, and sea level—under conditions of ongoing global warming, we used reanalyses and remote sensing data, as well as information from known publications of recent years. It was found that against an increase in SAT over the Black–Azov Sea region (+0.053°C/year in 1980–2020) and SST of the Black Sea (+0.052°C/year in 1982–2020), the values of these parameters in the 2000s differ significantly from those in the 1980s–1990s: the maximum average monthly summer and minimum average monthly winter temperatures have increased, as well as the number of mild winters. The average annual SST of the Black Sea, which practically did not exceed 15°C in the 1980s–early 1990s, has exceeded 16°C in most cases since 2010 (maximum 16.71°C in 2018). In the 2010s, the average monthly winter minima, with the exception of the winters of 2011/2012 and 2016/2017, did not fall below 8°С. A consequence of the increase in winter temperatures was a decrease in the ice concentration in the Sea of Azov (the trend of the mean monthly concentration is –1.2%/10 years). From about 2004–2010 in the Black Sea and since 2004 in the Sea of Azov, the tendency towards increase in their levels (on average) has been replaced by a slight decrease, so that the average positive trends for the period 1993–2020 (+0.32 ± 0.16 cm/year in the Black Sea and +0.21 ± 0.05 cm/year in the Sea of Azov) were approximately 2.5 times less than in 1993–2012. The reason for this decrease in levels (on average) in the last 10–15 years was apparently a decrease in the incoming part of the freshwater balance of both seas, which is indirectly confirmed by the observed increase in salinity of their waters.

Revealing the Genetic Components Responsible for the Unique Photosynthetic Stem Capability of the Wild Almond Prunus arabica (Olivier) Meikle

Almond [Prunus dulcis (Mill.) D. A. Webb] is a major deciduous fruit tree crop worldwide. During dormancy, under warmer temperatures and inadequate chilling hours, the plant metabolic activity increases and may lead to carbohydrate deficiency. Prunus arabica (Olivier) Meikle is a bushy wild almond species known for its green, unbarked stem, which stays green even during the dormancy period. Our study revealed that P. arabica green stems assimilate significantly high rates of CO2 during the winter as compared to P. dulcis cv. Um el Fahem (U.E.F.) and may improve carbohydrate status throughout dormancy. To uncover the genetic inheritance and mechanism behind the P. arabica stem photosynthetic capability (SPC), a segregated F1 population was generated by crossing P. arabica to U.E.F. Both parent’s whole genome was sequenced, and SNP calling identified 4,887 informative SNPs for genotyping. A robust genetic map for U.E.F. and P. arabica was constructed (971 and 571 markers, respectively). QTL mapping and association study for the SPC phenotype revealed major QTL [log of odd (LOD) = 20.8] on chromosome 7 and another minor but significant QTL on chromosome 1 (LOD = 3.9). As expected, the P. arabica allele in the current loci significantly increased the SPC phenotype. Finally, a list of 64 candidate genes was generated. This work sets the stage for future research to investigate the mechanism regulating the SPC trait, how it affects the tree’s physiology, and its importance for breeding new cultivars better adapted to high winter temperatures.

Tree-ring history of Swiss needle cast impact on Douglas-fir growth in Western Oregon: correlations with climatic variables

The fungal pathogen, Nothophaeocryptopus gaeumannii, occurs wherever Douglas-fir is found but disease damage is believed to be limited to the Coast Range and is of no concern outside the coastal fog zone (Shaw, et al., 2011). However, knowledge remains limited on the history and spatial distribution of Swiss Needle Cast (SNC) impacts in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). We reconstructed the history of SNC impacts on mature Douglas-fir trees based on tree ringwidth chronologies from the west slope of the Coast Range to the high Cascades of Oregon. Our findings show that SNC impacts on growth occur wherever Douglas-fir is found in western Oregon and is not limited to the coastal fog zone. The spatiotemporal patterns of growth impact from SNC disease were synchronous across the region, displayed periodicities of 25-30 years, strongly correlated with winter and summer temperatures and summer precipitation, and matched the patterns of enriched cellulosic stable carbon isotope indicative of physiological stress. While winter and summer temperature and summer precipitation influenced pathogen dynamics at all sites, the primary climatic factor of these three limiting factors varied spatially by location, topography, and elevation. In the 20th century, SNC impacts at low- to mid-elevations were least severe during the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO, 1924-1945) and most severe in 1984-1986, following the cool phase of the PDO (1945-1977). At high elevations on the west slope of the Cascade Mountains, SNC impacts were the greatest in the 1990s and 2000s, a period of warmer winter temperatures associated with climate change. Warmer winters will likely continue to increase SNC severity at higher elevations, north along the coast from northern Oregon to British Columbia, and inland where low winter temperatures currently limit growth of the pathogen. Surprisingly, tree-ring records of ancient Douglas-fir logs dated ~53K radioactive years B.P. from Eddyville, OR displayed 7.5- and 20-year periodicities of low growth, similar to those found in modern day coastal Douglas-fir tree-ring records which we interpret as being due to cyclic fluctuations in SNC severity. Our findings indicate that SNC has persisted for as long as its host, and as a result of changing climate, may become a significant forest health problem in areas of the PNW beyond the coastal fog zone.

Paved Paradise: Belowground Parking Structures Sustain Urban Mosquito Populations in Washington, DC

ABSTRACT After notification of mosquitoes within federal buildings in Washington, DC, we surveyed belowground levels of nearby parking structures for mosquitoes and standing water in the summer months of 2018 and 2019. Aedes aegypti, Ae. albopictus, and members of the Culex pipiens Assemblage were found. Genotyping revealed pipiens, molestus, and quinquefasciatus ancestry among Cx. pipiens Assemblage mosquitoes, and allele frequency comparisons indicated a stable, resident population. Winter and spring aboveground temperatures ranged from −11°C to 35°C, while belowground temperatures never dropped below 5°C or exceeded 30°C, and winter temperatures were significantly higher belowground compared with aboveground. Moderated winter conditions suggest that belowground urban structures could act as refugia for warmer-climate species, like Ae. aegypti and Cx. quinquefasciatus, allowing them to overcome assumed thermal barriers. Surveys of parking structures should be incorporated into integrated vector management programs in urban areas.

Evaluating Postharvest Organic Nitrogen Fertilizer Applications in Early Fruiting Northern Highbush Blueberry

Bloom to fruit maturity is a period of rapid growth and nitrogen (N) uptake in northern highbush blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.). Sufficient plant-available N is critical during this time, and growers often accomplish this through fertilizer applications from bloom through fruit development. For organic production in northern climates like Washington State, postharvest applications of N fertilizer are not recommended for northern highbush blueberry because they may stimulate excessive vegetative growth, reduce floral bud set, and increase the risk of winter injury through delayed acclimation. However, early fruiting cultivars with the potential for an extended growing season after harvest may benefit from postharvest N applications because the additional N may promote shoot and root growth that could support fruit production in future years while still allowing plants to form floral buds and acclimate to winter temperatures. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential impacts of postharvest organic N fertilizer applications on ‘Duke’, an early fruiting northern highbush blueberry cultivar. Specific objectives were to determine the effects of postharvest organic N fertilizer application on plant growth, yield, floral bud set, fruit quality, cold hardiness, tissue macronutrient concentrations, and select soil properties. Four treatments varying in the timing of N application were evaluated in a commercial ‘Duke’ field in eastern Washington using a single fertilizer rate of 130 kg⋅ha−1 N from 2018 to 2020. The organic fertilizer N source was a liquid fertilizer derived from digested plant materials. The experimental design was a randomized complete block design with four replications and treatments included the following: control (100% of N applied preharvest); 80/20 (80% preharvest, 20% postharvest); 70/30 (70% preharvest, 30% postharvest); and 60/40 (60% preharvest, 40% postharvest). Although the year influenced measured variables, including yield, floral bud set, fruit quality, tissue nutrients, and soil properties, few treatment effects were observed across the 3-year study. Cold hardiness was only impacted once (8 Feb. 2020), and floral buds were overall hardy to extreme minimum winter temperatures for the region. This project showed that applying postharvest organic N as a liquid fertilizer had no negative consequences on productivity metrics for an early fruiting blueberry cultivar grown in a region with an extended growing season, thus providing growers with more flexibility when timing their fertilizer applications. Results may differ for other fertilizer sources, and further monitoring of soil NO3-N accumulation should be conducted to gain a better understanding of its dynamics and the potential for risks.

Shoot Growth and Flower Bud Production of Peony Plants under Subtropical Conditions

Peony plants require temperate winter temperatures to break underground bud dormancy and allow shoot emergence and flowering in spring. This study assessed whether artificial chilling at 4 °C for 2–6 weeks could induce shoot emergence and flowering under subtropical conditions. It also assessed whether pre-treatment at cool temperatures prior to chilling, or gibberellin application after chilling, promoted shoot emergence and flowering. Artificial chilling at 4 °C for 4 or 6 weeks promoted the greatest shoot emergence. Pre-treatment at cool temperatures did not affect shoot growth or flower bud production but it improved shoot emergence from plants also treated with gibberellin. Gibberellin more than doubled the number of shoots per plant without affecting shoot length. The optimal treatment combination for shoot emergence, growth and flower bud production was pre-treatment from 20 °C to 8 °C over an 8-day period in autumn, chilling at 4 °C for 6 weeks in early winter, and treatment with 250 mL of 100 mg/L GA3, before returning plants to subtropical winter conditions. This treatment combination provided medians of 3 (0–7) and 8 (0–31) flower buds per plant in the second and third years of production, respectively. Peony flowers can be produced in subtropical climates using artificial chilling and gibberellin, allowing out-of-season market supply.