scholarly journals Agriculture is adapting to phenological shifts caused by climate change, but grassland songbirds are not

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maeve M. McGowan ◽  
Noah G. Perlut ◽  
Allan M. Strong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Phenological Shifts ◽  
Grassland Songbirds

scholarly journals Evolved phenological cueing strategies show variable responses to climate change

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Collin B. Edwards ◽  
Louie Yang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Similar Response ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Global Pattern ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Fitness Consequences ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Correlation Structures ◽  
Phenological Shifts

AbstractSeveral studies have documented a global pattern of phenological advancement that is consistent with ongoing climate change. However, the magnitude of these phenological shifts is highly variable across taxa and locations. This variability of phenological responses has been difficult to explain mechanistically. To examine how the evolution of multi-trait cueing strategies could produce variable responses to climate change, we constructed a model in which organisms evolve strategies that integrate multiple environmental cues to inform anticipatory phenological decisions. We simulated the evolution of phenological cueing strategies in multiple environments, using historic climate data from 78 locations in North America and Hawaii to capture features of climatic correlation structures in the real world. Organisms in our model evolved diverse strategies that were spatially autocorrelated across locations on a continental scale, showing that similar strategies tend to evolve in similar climates. Within locations, organisms often evolved a wide range of strategies that showed similar response phenotypes and fitness outcomes under historical conditions. However, these strategies responded differently to novel climatic conditions, with variable fitness consequences. Our model shows how the evolution of phenological cueing strategies can explain observed variation in phenological shifts and unexpected responses to climate change.

Who flies first? – habitat‐specific phenological shifts of butterflies and orthopterans in the light of climate change: a case study from the south‐east M editerranean

2015 ◽  
Vol 40 (5) ◽  
pp. 562-574 ◽  
Author(s):  
KONSTANTINA ZOGRAFOU ◽  
GEORGE C. ADAMIDIS ◽  
ANDREA GRILL ◽  
VASSILIKI KATI ◽  
ROBERT J. WILSON ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
The South ◽  
Phenological Shifts

scholarly journals Influence of spring and autumn phenological transitions on forest ecosystem productivity

2010 ◽  
Vol 365 (1555) ◽  
pp. 3227-3246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew D. Richardson ◽  
T. Andy Black ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
Nicolas Delbart ◽  
Mark A. Friedl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Eddy Covariance ◽  
Boreal Forests ◽  
Ecosystem Respiration ◽  
Ecosystem Productivity ◽  
Important Conclusion ◽  
Gross Ecosystem Photosynthesis ◽  
Eddy Covariance Measurements ◽  
Phenological Shifts ◽  
Carry Over

We use eddy covariance measurements of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) from 21 FLUXNET sites (153 site-years of data) to investigate relationships between phenology and productivity (in terms of both NEP and gross ecosystem photosynthesis, GEP) in temperate and boreal forests. Results are used to evaluate the plausibility of four different conceptual models. Phenological indicators were derived from the eddy covariance time series, and from remote sensing and models. We examine spatial patterns (across sites) and temporal patterns (across years); an important conclusion is that it is likely that neither of these accurately represents how productivity will respond to future phenological shifts resulting from ongoing climate change. In spring and autumn, increased GEP resulting from an ‘extra’ day tends to be offset by concurrent, but smaller, increases in ecosystem respiration, and thus the effect on NEP is still positive. Spring productivity anomalies appear to have carry-over effects that translate to productivity anomalies in the following autumn, but it is not clear that these result directly from phenological anomalies. Finally, the productivity of evergreen needleleaf forests is less sensitive to phenology than is productivity of deciduous broadleaf forests. This has implications for how climate change may drive shifts in competition within mixed-species stands.

scholarly journals Projected responses of North American grassland songbirds to climate change and habitat availability at their northern range limits in Alberta, Canada

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy E. Nixon ◽  
Ryan J. Fisher ◽  
Diana Stralberg ◽  
Erin M. Bayne ◽  
Dan R. Farr
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North American ◽  
Range Limits ◽  
Habitat Availability ◽  
Grassland Songbirds

scholarly journals Feedback of coastal marshes to climate change: Long‐term phenological shifts

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 6785-6797 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Mo ◽  
Michael S. Kearney ◽  
R. Eugene Turner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coastal Marshes ◽  
Phenological Shifts

scholarly journals Climate causes shifts in grey seal phenology by modifying age structure

2021 ◽  
Vol 288 (1964) ◽  
Author(s):  
James C. Bull ◽  
Owen R. Jones ◽  
Luca Börger ◽  
Novella Franconi ◽  
Roma Banga ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Ecosystem Change ◽  
Population Census ◽  
Sea Temperature ◽  
Population Age Structure ◽  
Phenological Shifts

There are numerous examples of phenological shifts that are recognized both as indicators of climate change and drivers of ecosystem change. A pressing challenge is to understand the causal mechanisms by which climate affects phenology. We combined annual population census data and individual longitudinal data (1992–2018) on grey seals, Halicheorus grypus , to quantify the relationship between pupping season phenology and sea surface temperature. A temperature increase of 2°C was associated with a pupping season advance of approximately seven days at the population level. However, we found that maternal age, rather than sea temperature, accounted for changes in pupping date by individuals. Warmer years were associated with an older average age of mothers, allowing us to explain phenological observations in terms of a changing population age structure. Finally, we developed a matrix population model to test whether our observations were consistent with changes to the stable age distribution. This could not fully account for observed phenological shift, strongly suggesting transient modification of population age structure, for example owing to immigration. We demonstrate a novel mechanism for phenological shifts under climate change in long-lived, age- or stage-structured species with broad implications for dynamics and resilience, as well as population management.

scholarly journals Priority effects and season length shape long-term competition dynamics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heng-Xing Zou ◽  
Volker H. W. Rudolf
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Arrival Time ◽  
Stage Structure ◽  
Priority Effects ◽  
Season Length ◽  
Priority Effect ◽  
Phenological Shifts

AbstractThe relative arrival time of species often affects species interactions within a community, contributing to priority effects. Recent studies on phenological shifts under climate change have generated renewed interest on priority effects, but their role in shaping long-term dynamics of seasonal communities is poorly resolved. Here we use a general stage-structure competition model to determine how different types of priority effects influence long-term coexistence of species in seasonal systems. We show that while shifts in mean and variance of relative arrival time can alter persistence and coexistence conditions of species, these effects depend on season length and type of priority effect. In “slow” systems with one or a few cohorts per season, changes in mean and seasonal variation of relative arrival time strongly altered species persistence through trait-mediated priority effects. In contrast, competition outcome in “fast” systems is largely determined by numeric priority effects due to interaction between many overlapping generations. These results suggest that empirically observed priority effects may arise from fundamentally different mechanisms, and that fast-generating systems may be less impacted by seasonal variation in phenology. Our model provides important insight into how natural communities respond to increasing variation in phenology over seasons under climate change.

scholarly journals Climate change threats to a floral wedding: Threats of shifting phenology to the emerging South African wedding industry

2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (45) ◽  
pp. 7-23
Author(s):  
Mazozo N. Mahlangu ◽  
Jennifer M. Fitchett
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Natural Environment ◽  
Mixed Method ◽  
Exploratory Study ◽  
Adaptive Strategies ◽  
The World ◽  
Phenological Shifts ◽  
Method Approach

AbstractWedding tourism is a fast emerging niche market both globally and in South Africa, as destination weddings are becoming increasingly popular. Wedding industries across the world, and specifically in South Africa, are increasingly dependent on the natural environment. Wedding venues with floral gardens, farms, orchards or forests are particularly popular. Beyond the venue, flowers are important for the bouquets and decoration, with popular blooms changing year on year. Shifting phenology – the timing of annually recurrent biological events – has been identified as one of the most sensitive responses to climate change. This poses a threat to the sustainability of floral wedding venues and the floral industry relating to weddings. This exploratory study utilizes an interdisciplinary mixed-method approach to record the importance of flowers in South African weddings and the perceived threats of climate change to this subsector. The respondents reveal the importance of flowers and the outdoors in both symbolism and the enjoyment of the wedding day, and had organised their wedding date to align with flowering. Destinations highlight a lack of awareness regarding phenological threats and are relatively unperturbed about the threats of climate change. Comparison to global phenological shifts reveals that these are misplaced. There is, therefore, a need for such wedding venues to adopt adaptive strategies to preserve their environment which drives wedding tourism.

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