scholarly journals Priority effects and season length shape long-term competition dynamics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heng-Xing Zou ◽  
Volker H. W. Rudolf
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Arrival Time ◽  
Stage Structure ◽  
Priority Effects ◽  
Season Length ◽  
Priority Effect ◽  
Phenological Shifts

AbstractThe relative arrival time of species often affects species interactions within a community, contributing to priority effects. Recent studies on phenological shifts under climate change have generated renewed interest on priority effects, but their role in shaping long-term dynamics of seasonal communities is poorly resolved. Here we use a general stage-structure competition model to determine how different types of priority effects influence long-term coexistence of species in seasonal systems. We show that while shifts in mean and variance of relative arrival time can alter persistence and coexistence conditions of species, these effects depend on season length and type of priority effect. In “slow” systems with one or a few cohorts per season, changes in mean and seasonal variation of relative arrival time strongly altered species persistence through trait-mediated priority effects. In contrast, competition outcome in “fast” systems is largely determined by numeric priority effects due to interaction between many overlapping generations. These results suggest that empirically observed priority effects may arise from fundamentally different mechanisms, and that fast-generating systems may be less impacted by seasonal variation in phenology. Our model provides important insight into how natural communities respond to increasing variation in phenology over seasons under climate change.

Predator–prey interactions and climate change

2019 ◽  
pp. 199-220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent Bretagnolle ◽  
Julien Terraube
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
Generalist Predators ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Predator Prey ◽  
Key Topics ◽  
Available Information

Climate change is likely to impact all trophic levels, although the response of communities and ecosystems to it has only recently received considerable attention. Further, it is expected to affect the magnitude of species interactions themselves. In this chapter, we summarize why and how climate change could affect predator–prey interactions, then review the literature about its impact on predator–prey relationships in birds, and provide prospects for future studies. Expected effects on prey or predators may include changes in the following: distribution, phenology, population density, behaviour, morphology, or physiology. We review the currently available information concerning particular key topics: top-down versus bottom-up control, specialist versus generalist predators, functional versus numerical responses, trophic cascades and regime shifts, and lastly adaptation and selection. Finally, we focus our review on two well-studied bird examples: seabirds and raptors. Key future topics include long-term studies, modelling and experimental studies, evolutionary questions, and conservation issues.

scholarly journals Feedback of coastal marshes to climate change: Long‐term phenological shifts

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 6785-6797 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Mo ◽  
Michael S. Kearney ◽  
R. Eugene Turner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coastal Marshes ◽  
Phenological Shifts

scholarly journals Phenological shifts of native and invasive species under climate change: insights from the Boechera–Lythrum model

2017 ◽  
Vol 372 (1712) ◽  
pp. 20160032 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert I. Colautti ◽  
Jon Ågren ◽  
Jill T. Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Rocky Mountain ◽  
Flowering Phenology ◽  
Lythrum Salicaria ◽  
Genetic Constraints ◽  
Floral Phenology ◽  
Phenological Shifts ◽  
Delayed Flowering

Warmer and drier climates have shifted phenologies of many species. However, the magnitude and direction of phenological shifts vary widely among taxa, and it is often unclear when shifts are adaptive or how they affect long-term viability. Here, we model evolution of flowering phenology based on our long-term research of two species exhibiting opposite shifts in floral phenology: Lythrum salicaria , which is invasive in North America, and the sparse Rocky Mountain native Boechera stricta . Genetic constraints are similar in both species, but differences in the timing of environmental conditions that favour growth lead to opposite phenological shifts under climate change. As temperatures increase, selection is predicted to favour earlier flowering in native B. stricta while reducing population viability, even if populations adapt rapidly to changing environmental conditions. By contrast, warming is predicted to favour delayed flowering in both native and introduced L. salicaria populations while increasing long-term viability. Relaxed selection from natural enemies in invasive L. salicaria is predicted to have little effect on flowering time but a large effect on reproductive fitness. Our approach highlights the importance of understanding ecological and genetic constraints to predict the ecological consequences of evolutionary responses to climate change on contemporary timescales. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences’.

scholarly journals TEMPERATURE AND NUTRIENT CONDITIONS MODIFY THE EFFECTS OF PHENOLOGICAL SHIFTS IN PREDATOR-PREY COMMUNITIES

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Volker H.W. Rudolf
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Community Dynamics ◽  
Arrival Time ◽  
Environmental Context ◽  
Nutrient Addition ◽  
Predator Prey ◽  
Early Arrival ◽  
Phenological Shifts ◽  
Predation Rates

While there is mounting evidence indicating that the relative timing of predator and prey phenologies shapes the outcome of trophic interactions, we still lack a comprehensive understanding of how important the environmental context (e.g. abiotic conditions) is for shaping this relationship. Environmental conditions not only frequently drive shifts in phenologies, but they can also affect the very same processes that mediate the effects of phenological shifts on species interactions. Thus, identifying how environmental conditions shape the effects of phenological shifts is key to predict community dynamics across a heterogenous landscape and how they will change with ongoing climate change in the future. Here I tested how environmental conditions shape effects of phenological shifts by experimentally manipulating temperature, nutrient availability, and relative phenologies in two predator-prey freshwater systems (mole salamander- bronze frog vs dragonfly larvae-leopard frog). This allowed me to (1) isolate the effect of phenological shifts and different environmental conditions, (2) determine how they interact, and (3) how consistent these patterns are across different species and environments. I found that delaying prey arrival dramatically increased predation rates, but these effects were contingent on environmental conditions and predator system. While both nutrient addition and warming significantly enhanced the effect of arrival time, their effect was qualitatively different: Nutrient addition enhanced the positive effect of early arrival while warming enhanced the negative effect of arriving late. Predator responses varied qualitatively across predator-prey systems. Only in the system with strong gape-limitation were predators (salamanders) significantly affected by prey arrival time and this effect varied with environmental context. Correlations between predator and prey demographic rates suggest that this was driven by shifts in initial predator-prey size ratios and a positive feedback between size-specific predation rates and predator growth rates. These results highlight the importance of accounting for temporal and spatial correlation of local environmental conditions and gape-limitation in predator-prey systems when predicting the effects of phenological shifts and climate change on predator-prey systems.

scholarly journals Disorder or a new order: how climate change affects phenological variability

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Stemkovski ◽  
James R. Bell ◽  
Elizabeth R. Ellwood ◽  
Brian D. Inouye ◽  
Hiromi Kobori ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Biotic Interactions ◽  
New Order ◽  
Spring Phenology ◽  
Interacting Species ◽  
First Occurrence ◽  
Phenological Shifts ◽  
Flower Phenology ◽  
Over Time

Advancing spring phenology is a well-documented consequence of anthropogenic climate change, but it is not well understood how climate change will affect the variability of phenology year-to-year. Species' phenological timings reflect adaptation to a broad suite of abiotic needs (e.g. thermal energy) and biotic interactions (e.g. predation and pollination), and changes in patterns of variability may disrupt those adaptations and interactions. Here, we present a geographically and taxonomically broad analysis of phenological shifts, temperature sensitivity, and changes in inter-annual variance encompassing nearly 10,000 long-term phenology time-series representing over 1,000 species across much of the northern hemisphere. We show that early-season species in colder and less seasonal regions were the most sensitive to temperature change and had the least variable phenologies. The timings of leaf-out, flowering, insect first-occurrence, and bird arrival have all shifted earlier and tend to be less variable in warmer years. This has led leaf-out and flower phenology to become moderately but significantly less variable over time. These simultaneous changes in phenological averages and the variation around them have the potential to influence mismatches among interacting species that are difficult to anticipate if shifts in average are studied in isolation.

scholarly journals Global shifts in the phenological synchrony of species interactions over recent decades

2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (20) ◽  
pp. 5211-5216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heather M. Kharouba ◽  
Johan Ehrlén ◽  
Andrew Gelman ◽  
Kjell Bolmgren ◽  
Jenica M. Allen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystems ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Global Trends ◽  
Predator Prey ◽  
Interacting Species ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Phenological Shifts

Phenological responses to climate change (e.g., earlier leaf-out or egg hatch date) are now well documented and clearly linked to rising temperatures in recent decades. Such shifts in the phenologies of interacting species may lead to shifts in their synchrony, with cascading community and ecosystem consequences. To date, single-system studies have provided no clear picture, either finding synchrony shifts may be extremely prevalent [Mayor SJ, et al. (2017) Sci Rep 7:1902] or relatively uncommon [Iler AM, et al. (2013) Glob Chang Biol 19:2348–2359], suggesting that shifts toward asynchrony may be infrequent. A meta-analytic approach would provide insights into global trends and how they are linked to climate change. We compared phenological shifts among pairwise species interactions (e.g., predator–prey) using published long-term time-series data of phenological events from aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems across four continents since 1951 to determine whether recent climate change has led to overall shifts in synchrony. We show that the relative timing of key life cycle events of interacting species has changed significantly over the past 35 years. Further, by comparing the period before major climate change (pre-1980s) and after, we show that estimated changes in phenology and synchrony are greater in recent decades. However, there has been no consistent trend in the direction of these changes. Our findings show that there have been shifts in the timing of interacting species in recent decades; the next challenges are to improve our ability to predict the direction of change and understand the full consequences for communities and ecosystems.

scholarly journals Climate change intensification of herbivore impacts on tree recruitment

2011 ◽  
Vol 279 (1732) ◽  
pp. 1366-1370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jedediah Brodie ◽  
Eric Post ◽  
Fred Watson ◽  
Joel Berger
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Populus Tremuloides ◽  
Cervus Elaphus ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Ecological Communities ◽  
Generalist Herbivore ◽  
Plant Persistence

Altered species interactions are difficult to predict and yet may drive the response of ecological communities to climate change. We show that declining snowpack strengthens the impacts of a generalist herbivore, elk ( Cervus elaphus ), on a common tree species. Thick snowpack substantially reduces elk visitation to sites; aspen ( Populus tremuloides ) shoots in these areas experience lower browsing rates, higher survival and enhanced recruitment. Aspen inside herbivore exclosures have greatly increased recruitment, particularly at sites with thick snowpack. We suggest that long-term decreases in snowpack could help explain a widespread decline of aspen through previously unconsidered relationships. More generally, reduced snowpack across the Rocky Mountains, combined with rising elk populations, may remove the conditions needed for recruitment of this ecologically important tree species. These results highlight that herbivore behavioural responses to altered abiotic conditions are critical determinants of plant persistence. Predictions of climate change impacts must not overlook the crucial importance of species interactions.

scholarly journals Does Phenological Plasticity Help or Hinder Range Shifts Under Climate Change?

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meredith A. Zettlemoyer ◽  
Megan L. Peterson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Flowering Phenology ◽  
Species Traits ◽  
Species Range ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Species Ranges ◽  
Population Spread ◽  
Phenological Shifts

Climate warming is predicted to shift species’ ranges as previously uninhabitable environments just beyond the leading range edges become suitable habitat and trailing range edges become increasingly unsuitable. Understanding which aspects of the environment and species traits mediate these range shifts is critical for understanding species’ possible redistributions under global change, yet we have a limited understanding of the ecological and evolutionary responses underlying population spread or extinction at species’ range edges. Within plant populations, shifts in flowering phenology have been one of the strongest and most consistent responses to climate change, and are likely to play an important role in mediating population dynamics within and beyond species’ ranges. However, the role of phenological shifts, and particularly phenological plasticity, in species’ range shifts remains relatively unstudied. Here, we synthesize literature on phenology, plasticity, and adaptation to suggest ways in which phenological responses to climate may vary across species’ ranges and review the empirical evidence for and against these hypotheses. We then outline how phenological plasticity could facilitate or hinder persistence and potential consequences of phenological plasticity in range expansions, including phenological cues, shifts in correlated traits, altered species interactions, and effects on gene flow. Finally, we suggest future avenues for research, such as characterizing reaction norms for phenology across a species’ range and in beyond-the-range transplant experiments. Given the prevalence and magnitude of phenological shifts, future work should carefully dissect its costs and benefits for population persistence, and incorporate phenological plasticity into models predicting species’ persistence and geographic range shifts under climate change.

scholarly journals Linking phenological shifts to species interactions through size-mediated priority effects

2014 ◽  
Vol 83 (5) ◽  
pp. 1206-1215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nick L. Rasmussen ◽  
Benjamin G. Van Allen ◽  
Volker H. W. Rudolf
Keyword(s):  
Species Interactions ◽  
Priority Effects ◽  
Phenological Shifts
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