Using single visits into integrated occupancy models to make the most of existing monitoring programs

Introduction. The city of Chita of Zabaikalsky region is one of the cities of Russia, priority on level of pollution of atmosphere. Of the order of 130 impurities emitted by the sources of the city, 12 are monitored at 5 posts of the Roshydromet network. Maximum monthly average concentrations are formed by benz (a) pyrene (up to 56.8 MPC), hydrogen sulfide (12.3 MPC), suspended particles (up to 4PDC), phenol (up to 3.6 MPC). Significant emissions (59.73 thousand tons in 2018) are aggravated by the use of coal as a fuel by heat and power enterprises and the private sector, climatic and geographical features. Within the framework of the Federal project “Clean Air” of the national project “Ecology”, it is envisaged to reduce the gross emission of pollutants into the atmosphere of Chita by 8.75 thousand tons by 2024, which should lead to a significant improvement in the safety and quality of life of citizens. It is necessary to identify the most “risky “components of pollution for health.It is important to understand: whether the environmental monitoring system reflects the real picture of the dangers posed by pollution of the city’s atmosphere; whether there is a need to optimize the monitoring system for the subsequent assessment of the effectiveness and efficiency of measures; what impurities and at what points should be monitored in the interests of the population, administration and economic entities implementing air protection measures.The aim of the study is to develop recommendations for optimizing the program of environmental monitoring of air quality in the city of Chita, taking into account the criteria of danger to public health for the subsequent evaluation of the effectiveness and effectiveness of the Federal project “Clean Air”.Materials and methods. Justification of optimization of monitoring programs was carried out through the calculation of hazard indices, considering: the mass of emissions and toxicological characteristics of each chemical; the population under the influence. A vector map of the city with a layer “population density” was used as a topographic base. The indices were calculated for regular grid cells covering the residential area. For each cell, the repeatability of winds of 8 points from the priority enterprises and the population within the calculated cell were taken into account. As a result, each calculation cell was characterized by a total coefficient, taking into account the danger of potential impacts of emissions. Based on the results of the assessments, recommendations were formulated to optimize the placement of posts in the city and the formation of monitoring programs.Results. Indices of carcinogenic danger to the health of the population of Chita ranged from 584,805. 96 to 0.03 (priorities: carbon (soot), benzene, benz (a) pyrene); indices of non-carcinogenic danger — from 1,443,558. 24 to 0.00 (priorities: sulfur dioxide, inorganic dust containing 70–20% SiO2, fuel oil ash). The greatest danger to public health stationary sources of emissions form in the North-Western, Western and South-Eastern parts of the city. Roshydromet posts in these zones are absent.Conclusions. As part of the objectives of the project “Clean Air”, it is recommended to Supplement the existing state network of observations of atmospheric air quality in Chita with two posts; to include manganese, xylene, vanadium pentoxide in the monitoring programs, to carry out the determination of Benz(a)pyrene et all posts, which will allow to fully and adequately assess the danger of emissions of economic entities, as well as the effectiveness and efficiency of the provided air protection measures.

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Faculty Opinions recommendation of A note on simplifying likelihoods for site occupancy models.

Faculty Opinions – Post-Publication Peer Review of the Biomedical Literature ◽

10.3410/f.1086914.539849 ◽

2007 ◽

Author(s):

Philip Dixon

Keyword(s):

Site Occupancy ◽

Occupancy Models

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Methodological Approaches to Organization of Drinking Water Quality Monitoring Programs

ЗДОРОВЬЕ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ И СРЕДА ОБИТАНИЯ - ЗНиСО / PUBLIC HEALTH AND LIFE ENVIRONMENT ◽

10.35627/2219-5238/2020-331-10-4-8 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 4-8

Author(s):

Yu.A. Novikova ◽

I.O. Myasnikov ◽

A.A. Kovshov ◽

N.A. Tikhonova ◽

N.S. Bashketova

Keyword(s):

Water Quality ◽

Drinking Water ◽

Water Supply ◽

Cold Water ◽

Water Quality Monitoring ◽

Drinking Water Quality ◽

Quality Monitoring ◽

Water Supply Systems ◽

Monitoring Programs ◽

Supply Systems

Summary. Introduction: Drinking water is one of the most important environmental factors sustaining life and determining human health. The goal of the Russian Federal Clean Water Project is to improve drinking water quality through upgrading of water treatment and supply systems using advanced technologies, including those developed by the military-industrial complex. The most informative and reliable sources of information for assessing drinking water quality are the results of systematic laboratory testing obtained within the framework of socio-hygienic monitoring (SGM) and production control carried out by water supply organizations. The objective of our study was to formulate approaches to organizing quality monitoring programs for centralized cold water supply systems. Materials and methods: We reviewed programs and results of drinking water quality laboratory tests performed by Rospotrebnadzor bodies and institutions within the framework of SGM in 2017–2018. Results: We established that drinking water quality monitoring in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation differs significantly in the number of monitoring points (566 in the Krasnoyarsk Krai vs 10 in Sevastopol) and measured indicators, especially sanitary and chemical ones (53 inorganic and organic substances in the Kemerovo Region vs one indicator in the Amur Region). Discussion: For a more complete and objective assessment of drinking water quality in centralized cold water supply systems, monitoring points should be organized at all stages of water supply with account for the coverage of the maximum number of people supplied with water from a particular network. Thus, the number of points in the distribution network should depend, inter alia, on the size of population served. In urban settlements with up to 10,000 inhabitants, for example, at least 4 points should be organized while in the cities with more than 3,000,000 inhabitants at least 80 points are necessary. We developed minimum mandatory lists of indicators and approaches to selecting priority indices to be monitored at all stages of drinking water supply.

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An automated model for forecasting non-elective hospital bed demand in the entire English National Health System: retrospective process assessment study (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.21990 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Kanan Shah ◽

Akarsh Sharma ◽

Chris Moulton ◽

Simon Swift ◽

Clifford Mann ◽

...

Keyword(s):

National Health ◽

Mean Squared Error ◽

Winter Season ◽

National Health System ◽

Forecast Accuracy ◽

Occupancy Models ◽

Bed Occupancy ◽

Median Error ◽

Hospital Bed ◽

Forecasting Techniques

BACKGROUND From 2006/2007 to 2017/2018, there was a 26% increase in emergency department (ED) attendances and 32% increase in total admissions in the National Health Service in England (NHS). Growing demand puts severe strain on hospitals, resulting in bed, nursing, clinical and equipment shortages. Nevertheless, scheduling issues can still result in significant under-utilization of beds. It is imperative to optimize the allocation of existing healthcare resources, including hospital beds. More accurate and reliable long-term hospital bed occupancy rate prediction would help managers plan ahead for their population’s hospital requirements, ultimately resulting in greater efficiencies and better patient care. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to compare widely used automated time series forecasting techniques to predict short-term daily non-elective bed occupancy at all trusts in the NHS. METHODS Bed occupancy models that accounted for patterns in occupancy were created for each trust in the NHS. Daily non-elective midnight trust occupancy data from April 2011 to March 2017 for 121 NHS trusts were utilized to generate these models. Forecasts were generated using the three most widely used automated forecasting techniques: Exponential Smoothing (ES); Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA); Trigonometric, Box-Cox transform, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (TBATS). The NHS Modernization Agency’s recommended forecasting method prior to 2020, was also replicated. A comparative analysis of forecast accuracy was conducted by comparing forecasted daily non-elective occupancy with actual non-elective occupancy in the out-of-sample dataset for each week forecasted. Percentage root mean squared error (RMSE) was reported. RESULTS The accuracy of the models varied based on the season during which occupancy was forecasted. For the summer season, percent RMSE values for each model remained relatively stable across six forecasted weeks. However, only the TBATS model (median error 2.45% for six weeks) outperformed the NHS Modernization Agency’s recommended method (median error 2.63% for six weeks). In contrast, during the winter season, percent RMSE values increased as we forecasted further into the future. ES generated the most accurate forecasts (median error 4.91% over four weeks), but all models outperformed the NHS Modernization Agency’s recommended method prior to 2020 (median 8.5% error over four weeks). CONCLUSIONS It is possible to create automated models, similar to those recently published by the NHS, that can be used at a hospital level for a large, national healthcare system in order to predict non-elective bed admissions and thus schedule elective procedures. CLINICALTRIAL N/A

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Camera Trapping to Assess Status and Composition of Mammal Communities in a Biodiversity Hotspot in Myanmar

Animals ◽

10.3390/ani11030880 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (3) ◽

pp. 880

Author(s):

Giacomo Cremonesi ◽

Francesco Bisi ◽

Lorenzo Gaffi ◽

Thet Zaw ◽

Hla Naing ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Human Disturbance ◽

Habitat Degradation ◽

Single Species ◽

Wildlife Trade ◽

Ecosystem Functions ◽

Occupancy Models ◽

Apex Predators ◽

Disturbed Area ◽

The Status ◽

Mammal Communities

Tropical forests comprise a critically impacted habitat, and it is known that altered forests host a lower diversity of mammal communities. In this study, we investigated the mammal communities of two areas in Myanmar with similar environmental conditions but with great differences in habitat degradation and human disturbance. The main goal was to understand the status and composition of these communities in an understudied area like Myanmar at a broad scale. Using camera trap data from a three-year-long campaign and hierarchical occupancy models with a Bayesian formulation, we evaluated the biodiversity level (species richness) and different ecosystem functions (diet and body mass), as well as the occupancy values of single species as a proxy for population density. We found a lower mammal diversity in the disturbed area, with a significantly lower number of carnivores and herbivores species. Interestingly, the area did not show alteration in its functional composition. Almost all the specific roles in the community were present except for apex predators, thus suggesting that the effects of human disturbance are mainly effecting the communities highest levels. Furthermore, two species showed significantly lower occupancies in the disturbed area during all the monitoring campaigns: one with a strong pressure for bushmeat consumption and a vulnerable carnivore threatened by illegal wildlife trade.

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How much do the conventional parameters contribute to the biological toxicity of surface water in different types of villages?

Environmental Sciences Europe ◽

10.1186/s12302-021-00518-7 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 33 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Ying Shao ◽

Yueting Fan ◽

Yinjie Yang ◽

Min Zhou ◽

Tingting Li ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Water Quality ◽

Surface Water ◽

Acute Toxicity ◽

Correlation Analysis ◽

Surface Water Quality ◽

Rural Environment ◽

Environment Management ◽

Biological Toxicity ◽

Monitoring Programs ◽

Toxicity Effects

Abstract Background In rural areas, the surface water quality is seriously threatened by pollution from agriculture, breeding, industrial and tourism activities. Even though many strategies and programs were launched for rural environment management, it is challenging to tackle the serious surface water pollution in villages. Since pollution status varies with the type of villages, there is no single parameter that defines environment quality completely. Until recently, most of rural surface water quality monitoring programs focus only on the conventional parameters, while can these conventional parameters reflect comprehensive status of water quality? To study how much the conventional parameters contribute to biological toxicity of surface water in villages, the in situ parameters of pH, DO, EC, ORP, laboratorial parameters of COD, TN, NO3−-N, NO2−-N, NH4+-N, TP, and PO43−-P and acute toxicity were analyzed for the surface water samples those were collected from six types of villages, named breeding, agricultural, handicraft, industrial, agricultural and breeding, and tourism. The correlation analysis was applied to establish the linkages and contributions of each parameter. Results The results showed that all detected surface waters were alkaline, and the concentration of TN and most of COD concentrations in all six types of villages were higher than the Class V limits specified in environmental quality standards for surface water (GB3838-2002). Pearson’s correlation analysis showed that significantly positive correlations were found for the acute toxicity effects and laboratorial parameters of NO2−-N, NH4+-N and PO43−-P in agricultural villages, and negative correlations were found for the acute toxicity effects and laboratorial parameters of TN and NO3−-N. No significant correlation was observed in breeding villages and industrial villages. Conclusion The problems of nitrogen pollution and aerobic pollution are still serious in villages, and more attention should be paid in further rural environment management. NH4+-N could contribute to the acute toxicity of surface water in the most of investigated villages, while no significant correlation was observed between acute toxicity and conventional parameters in industrial villages and tourism villages. Environmental monitoring programs focusing just on the classical conventional parameters are far from sufficient, since the main toxic contributors are quite different in diverse villages. The outcomes of the present study contribute to demonstrate the performance and usefulness of bioanalytical techniques for water quality assessment.

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Shellfish Toxin Uptake and Depuration in Multiple Atlantic Canadian Molluscan Species: Application to Selection of Sentinel Species in Monitoring Programs

Toxins ◽

10.3390/toxins13020168 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (2) ◽

pp. 168

Author(s):

Wade A. Rourke ◽

Andrew Justason ◽

Jennifer L. Martin ◽

Cory J. Murphy

Keyword(s):

Monitoring Program ◽

Sentinel Species ◽

Paralytic Shellfish Toxins ◽

Monitoring Programs ◽

Paralytic Shellfish ◽

Shellfish Toxin ◽

Multiple Species ◽

Toxin Uptake ◽

Bivalve Shellfish ◽

Selection Of

Shellfish toxin monitoring programs often use mussels as the sentinel species to represent risk in other bivalve shellfish species. Studies have examined accumulation and depuration rates in various species, but little information is available to compare multiple species from the same harvest area. A 2-year research project was performed to validate the use of mussels as the sentinel species to represent other relevant eastern Canadian shellfish species (clams, scallops, and oysters). Samples were collected simultaneously from Deadmans Harbour, NB, and were tested for paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs) and amnesic shellfish toxin (AST). Phytoplankton was also monitored at this site. Scallops accumulated PSTs and AST sooner, at higher concentrations, and retained toxins longer than mussels. Data from monitoring program samples in Mahone Bay, NS, are presented as a real-world validation of findings. Simultaneous sampling of mussels and scallops showed significant differences between shellfish toxin results in these species. These data suggest more consideration should be given to situations where multiple species are present, especially scallops.

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Using occupancy models to assess the effectiveness of underwater cameras to detect rare stream fishes

Aquatic Conservation Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems ◽

10.1002/aqc.3254 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 30 (3) ◽

pp. 565-576 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Rowshyra A. Castañeda ◽

Olaf L.F. Weyl ◽

Nicholas E. Mandrak

Keyword(s):

Stream Fishes ◽

Occupancy Models ◽

Underwater Cameras

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