A mathematical model for the age distribution of cancer in man

1969 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Cook ◽  
Richard Doll ◽  
S. A. Fellingham
Parasitology ◽  
1982 ◽  
Vol 84 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary Smith

SUMMARYThe processes which govern the age structure of Fasciola hepatica populations in sheep were investigated by means of a simple mathematical model. The mortality of the metacercariae on the pasture was shown to be a factor of major importance. The mortality rate depends on the micro-climate that prevails at the pasture surface, and thus the age distribution curve of a population of flukes is also determined in part by the weather. This has important implications for the chemotherapy of fascioliasis: flukicides are not equally effective over the whole range of age-classes of parasite and so the factors which govern the age distribution curve of the parasite population within individual hosts ultimately determine the efficiency of chemotherapy.


1993 ◽  
Vol 111 (3) ◽  
pp. 525-538 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. N. Burattini ◽  
E. Massad ◽  
F. A. B. Coutinho ◽  
R. G. Baruzzi

SummaryAn alternative way to estimate the endemic level of malaria amongst Brazilian indians is proposed. This is achieved by estimating the age-related “force of infection’ of malaria (the effective inoculation rate), applying a mathematical model, described elsewhere, to serological data. In addition we present a way to estimate the Basic Reproductive Rate of malaria in the same area. The results have shown a good degree of accuracy in describing the endemic pattern of malaria in the area, and also indicate some relevant aspects of its age distribution related to the design of control strategies.


1999 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
John A. Hildebrand ◽  
Melissa B. Hagstrum

AbstractEthnoarchaeological data from contemporary Wanka villages in the Mantaro Valley of the Peruvian Andes provide new perspectives on the use and discard of ceramic cooking vessels. We present a regional survey of ceramic vessel use and discard with household consumption as the focus of study. A mathematical model determines vessel uselife from the age distribution of in-use vessels. We examine the number of vessels per household, their volume, their uselife, and their reported discard. A typical Wanka household cooking vessel assemblage consists of four or five ollas, two large ollas, one chata, and one tostadera. As family members are added to a household, the number of household ollas slightly increases, as does olla volume and the overall rate of olla discard. Large families have fewer chatas, and the rate of chata discard is uncorrelated with household size. Large and small families alike have only one tostadera, but in large families, a shortened tostadera uselife increases their discard rate. Distributing the same population into small or large households will result in significantly different rates of total sherd accumulation. Bulk sherd accumulation is a better indicator of the number of households rather than of the total number of persons. Household size can be estimated from the relative proportions of discarded ollas, chatas, and tostaderas.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naomi R Waterlow ◽  
Edwin Van Leeuwen ◽  
Nicholas G Davies ◽  
Stefan Flasche ◽  
Rosalind M Eggo ◽  
...  

We hypothesised that cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) could have affected SARS-CoV-2 transmission, including generating reduced susceptibility in children. To determine what the pre-pandemic distribution of immunity to HCoVs was, we fitted a mathematical model to 6 years of seasonal coronavirus surveillance data from England and Wales. We estimated a duration of immunity to seasonal HCoVs of 7.3 years (95%CI 6.8 - 7.9) and show that, while cross-protection between HCoV and SARS-CoV-2 may contribute to the age distribution, it is insufficient to explain the age pattern of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the first wave of the pandemic in England and Wales. Projections from our model illustrate how different strengths of cross-protection between circulating coronaviruses could determine the frequency and magnitude of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics over the coming decade, as well as the potential impact of cross-protection on future seasonal coronavirus transmission.


1991 ◽  
Vol 23 (7-9) ◽  
pp. 1677-1686 ◽  
Author(s):  
U. K. Traegner ◽  
M. T. Suidan

A mathematical model for the steady state adsorption of pollutants from completely mixed activated carbon contactors is derived in this paper. In order to accurately describe these processes, a sludge age distribution is incorporated for the adsorbent. The resulting mathematical model is solvable analytically using the homogeneous surface diffusion model (HSDM) as a descriptor of intraparticle mass transfer resistance. Various examples are included in this paper to illustrate the use of this new derivation. Effects of particle size, particle size distribution of commercial carbon, surface diffusion coefficients, and solids mass flow rate, on the performance of the completely mixed adsorption system are studied in detail. Examples of multicomponent, competitive adsorption as well as an equivalent single component representation of a target component are discussed.


1991 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1a-6
Author(s):  
Shuji Hashimoto ◽  
Kazuo Fukutomi ◽  
Hiroko Mori ◽  
Kenji Soda

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (49) ◽  
pp. e2108395118
Author(s):  
Naomi R. Waterlow ◽  
Edwin van Leeuwen ◽  
Nicholas G. Davies ◽  
Stefan Flasche ◽  
Rosalind M. Eggo ◽  
...  

We hypothesized that cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) could have affected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, including generating reduced susceptibility in children. To determine what the prepandemic distribution of immunity to HCoVs was, we fitted a mathematical model to 6 y of seasonal coronavirus surveillance data from England and Wales. We estimated a duration of immunity to seasonal HCoVs of 7.8 y (95% CI 6.3 to 8.1) and show that, while cross-protection between HCoV and SARS-CoV-2 may contribute to the age distribution, it is insufficient to explain the age pattern of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the first wave of the pandemic in England and Wales. Projections from our model illustrate how different strengths of cross-protection between circulating coronaviruses could determine the frequency and magnitude of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics over the coming decade, as well as the potential impact of cross-protection on future seasonal coronavirus transmission.


2015 ◽  
Vol 282 (1801) ◽  
pp. 20142657 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jamie T. Griffin ◽  
T. Déirdre Hollingsworth ◽  
Hugh Reyburn ◽  
Chris J. Drakeley ◽  
Eleanor M. Riley ◽  
...  

Previous analyses have suggested that immunity to non-cerebral severe malaria due to Plasmodium falciparum is acquired after only a few infections, whereas longitudinal studies show that some children experience multiple episodes of severe disease, suggesting that immunity may not be acquired so quickly. We fitted a mathematical model for the acquisition and loss of immunity to severe disease to the age distribution of severe malaria cases stratified by symptoms from a range of transmission settings in Tanzania, combined with data from several African countries on the age distribution and overall incidence of severe malaria. We found that immunity to severe disease was acquired more gradually with exposure than previously thought. The model also suggests that physiological changes, rather than exposure, may alter the symptoms of disease with increasing age, suggesting that a later age at infection would be associated with a higher proportion of cases presenting with cerebral malaria regardless of exposure. This has consequences for the expected pattern of severe disease as transmission changes. Careful monitoring of the decline in immunity associated with reduced transmission will therefore be needed to ensure rebound epidemics of severe and fatal malaria are avoided.


2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ishii Akira ◽  
Yoshida Narihiko ◽  
Hayashi Takafumi ◽  
Umemura Sanae ◽  
Nakagawa Takeshi
Keyword(s):  

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