scholarly journals How immunity from and interaction with seasonal coronaviruses can shape SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naomi R Waterlow ◽  
Edwin Van Leeuwen ◽  
Nicholas G Davies ◽  
Stefan Flasche ◽  
Rosalind M Eggo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Cross Protection ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Seasonal Epidemics ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Human Coronaviruses

We hypothesised that cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) could have affected SARS-CoV-2 transmission, including generating reduced susceptibility in children. To determine what the pre-pandemic distribution of immunity to HCoVs was, we fitted a mathematical model to 6 years of seasonal coronavirus surveillance data from England and Wales. We estimated a duration of immunity to seasonal HCoVs of 7.3 years (95%CI 6.8 - 7.9) and show that, while cross-protection between HCoV and SARS-CoV-2 may contribute to the age distribution, it is insufficient to explain the age pattern of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the first wave of the pandemic in England and Wales. Projections from our model illustrate how different strengths of cross-protection between circulating coronaviruses could determine the frequency and magnitude of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics over the coming decade, as well as the potential impact of cross-protection on future seasonal coronavirus transmission.

scholarly journals How immunity from and interaction with seasonal coronaviruses can shape SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (49) ◽  
pp. e2108395118
Author(s):  
Naomi R. Waterlow ◽  
Edwin van Leeuwen ◽  
Nicholas G. Davies ◽  
Stefan Flasche ◽  
Rosalind M. Eggo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Cross Protection ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Seasonal Epidemics ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Human Coronaviruses

We hypothesized that cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) could have affected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, including generating reduced susceptibility in children. To determine what the prepandemic distribution of immunity to HCoVs was, we fitted a mathematical model to 6 y of seasonal coronavirus surveillance data from England and Wales. We estimated a duration of immunity to seasonal HCoVs of 7.8 y (95% CI 6.3 to 8.1) and show that, while cross-protection between HCoV and SARS-CoV-2 may contribute to the age distribution, it is insufficient to explain the age pattern of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the first wave of the pandemic in England and Wales. Projections from our model illustrate how different strengths of cross-protection between circulating coronaviruses could determine the frequency and magnitude of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics over the coming decade, as well as the potential impact of cross-protection on future seasonal coronavirus transmission.

scholarly journals Use of the moving epidemic method (MEM) to assess national surveillance data for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in the Netherlands, 2005 to 2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (20) ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura M Vos ◽  
Anne C Teirlinck ◽  
José E Lozano ◽  
Tomás Vega ◽  
Gé A Donker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Respiratory Syncytial Virus ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Respiratory Infections ◽  
Laboratory Data ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Laboratory Surveillance ◽  
Syncytial Virus

Background To control respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), which causes acute respiratory infections, data and methods to assess its epidemiology are important. Aim We sought to describe RSV seasonality, affected age groups and RSV-type distribution over 12 consecutive seasons in the Netherlands, as well as to validate the moving epidemic method (MEM) for monitoring RSV epidemics. Methods We used 2005−17 laboratory surveillance data and sentinel data. For RSV seasonality evaluation, epidemic thresholds (i) at 1.2% of the cumulative number of RSV-positive patients per season and (ii) at 20 detections per week (for laboratory data) were employed. We also assessed MEM thresholds. Results In laboratory data RSV was reported 25,491 times (no denominator). In sentinel data 5.6% (767/13,577) of specimens tested RSV positive. Over 12 seasons, sentinel data showed percentage increases of RSV positive samples. The average epidemic length was 18.0 weeks (95% confidence intervals (CI):  16.3–19.7) and 16.5 weeks (95% CI: 14.0–18.0) for laboratory and sentinel data, respectively. Epidemics started on average in week 46 (95% CI: 45–48) and 47 (95% CI:  46–49), respectively. The peak was on average in the first week of January in both datasets. MEM showed similar results to the other methods. RSV incidence was highest in youngest (0–1 and >1–2 years) and oldest (>65–75 and > 75 years) age groups, with age distribution remaining stable over time. RSV-type dominance alternated every one or two seasons. Conclusions Our findings provide baseline information for immunisation advisory groups. The possibility of employing MEM to monitor RSV epidemics allows prospective, nearly real-time use of surveillance data.

scholarly journals Epidemiology of measles in Blantyre, Malawi: analyses of passive surveillance data from 1996 to 1998

2002 ◽  
Vol 129 (2) ◽  
pp. 361-369 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. YAMAGUCHI ◽  
A. DUNGA ◽  
R. L. BROADHEAD ◽  
B. J. BRABIN
Keyword(s):  
Vaccine Efficacy ◽  
Screening Method ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Passive Surveillance ◽  
District Health Office ◽  
District Health ◽  
Negatively Associated ◽  
Passive Surveillance System ◽  
Vaccination History

Measles surveillance data in Blantyre, Malawi were reviewed for 1996–8 to describe the epidemiology of infection and to estimate vaccine efficacy (VE) by the screening method. A total of 674 measles cases were reported to the Blantyre District Health Office during this period. Age distribution showed that 108 (16.1%) of the cases were aged less than 1 year. The median age was 5 years. Eighty percent of the cases between 1 and 19 years had been previously vaccinated. VE was 68.6% (95% CI, 52.7–79.2) for children 12–23 months of age and 67.3% (95% CI, 48.3–79.3) for infants 9–11 months of age. Reasons for this low vaccine efficacy are discussed. Previous vaccination history was negatively associated with the risk for developing cough during measles infection (odds ratio (OR), 0.30; 95% CI, 0.09–0.91), diarrhoea (OR, 0.64; CI, 0.44–0.95) and pneumonia (OR, 0.40; CI, 0.25–0.62). Logistic regression analysis showed that pneumonia in adults was negatively associated with vaccination history. The passive surveillance system for measles in Malawi was useful to describe the epidemiology of measles.

scholarly journals Rubella transmission and the risk of congenital rubella syndrome in Liberia: a need to introduce rubella-containing vaccine in the routine immunization program

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abyot Bekele Woyessa ◽  
Mohammed Seid Ali ◽  
Tiala K. Korkpor ◽  
Roland Tuopileyi ◽  
Henry T. Kohar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rna Virus ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Congenital Rubella Syndrome ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Reproductive Age ◽  
National Database ◽  
Women Of Reproductive Age ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Immunization Program ◽  
Congenital Rubella

Abstract Background Rubella is an RNA virus in the genus Rubivirus within the Matonaviridae family. Rubella remains a leading vaccine-preventable cause of birth defects. Most African countries including Liberia do not currently provide rubella-containing vaccine (RCV) in their immunization program. We analyzed the existing surveillance data to describe rubella cases and identify the at-risk population. Methods We conducted a retrospective descriptive statistics on the suspected-measles case-based surveillance data that obtained from the national database. Suspected-measles cases who were negative and indeterminate for measles IgM and tested for rubella IgM were extracted from the database. We used only rubella IgM positive cases to calculate trends and percentages by person, place and time. The cumulative-percent curve was used to visually describe the age distribution of rubella cases. Results During 2017–2018, a total of 2027 suspected-measles cases with known laboratory results were reported; of which, 1307 were tested for rubella IgM. Among tested cases, 472 (36%) were positive, 769 (59%) were negative and 66 (5%) were indeterminate for rubella IgM. Female contributed 269 (57%) of the confirmed rubella cases respectively. The median age was 7 years with an interquartile range of 5–10 years. From the total rubella cases, 6 (1%) were under 1 year, 109 (23%) were 1–4 years, 207 (44%) were 5–9 years, 87 (18%) were 10–14 years and 56 (12%) were more than or equal to 15 years. Women in their reproductive-age contributed 23 (5%) of rubella cases with 17% positivity rate. Two-thirds or 307 (65%) of the cases were reported from February to May which is dry season in Liberia. Conclusions Our analysis revealed that rubella was widely circulating in Liberia. Majority of the cases were reported among children < 15 years. However, rubella was also reported among women of reproductive age and infants < 1 year with no report of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS). Detail investigation of rubella cases among infants of < 1 year and women of reproductive age is important to uncover CRS. Establishment of CRS surveillance and the introduction of RCV in the immunization program are crucial to prevent rubella infection and avert the risk of CRS.

Epidemiological shift in the prevalence of pertussis in Taiwan: implications for pertussis vaccination

2007 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 533-537 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu-Chi Lin ◽  
Shu-Man Yao ◽  
Jer-Jea Yan ◽  
Ying-Yan Chen ◽  
Chuen-Sheue Chiang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Pertussis Vaccine ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
Acellular Pertussis Vaccine ◽  
Older Age ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Waning Immunity ◽  
Low Incidence

In Taiwan, routine pertussis immunization has been implemented for more than 40 years and a low incidence of pertussis was maintained until an 80-fold increase in cases occurred in 1992. The unexpected increase emphasized the significance of pertussis. This study evaluated a total of 2452 reported cases of pertussis during 1993–2004 and surveillance data on incidence, age distribution and seasonality. The highest morbidity was in infants aged <1 year, and upward trends in the incidence of pertussis were significant for infants aged <1 year and adolescents aged 10–14 years. The highest mean number of cases was observed in August and upward trends were in colder months. This study indicates that the epidemiology of pertussis may have been changed by waning immunity in Taiwan. Increased surveillance activities, especially in older age groups, and additional booster doses of acellular pertussis vaccine for children aged 6–8 years and adolescents/young adults aged 15–20 years are necessary to control and prevent pertussis.

scholarly journals The Mental Capacity Act 2005 and its potential impact on the use of restraint

2008 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 124-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arthur O. Owino
Keyword(s):  
Common Law ◽  
Mental Capacity ◽  
Best Interest ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Time Section ◽  
Mental Capacity Act 2005 ◽  
The Common ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Care And Treatment ◽  
Mental Capacity Act

The staged implementation of the Mental Capacity Act 2005 (further referred to as the Act) began in April 2007 and was completed in October 2007. The Act provides a comprehensive statutory framework for making decisions for people in England and Wales, aged 16 years and over, who lack capacity to make a particular decision at a particular time. Section 5 of the Act codifies the common law doctrine of necessity and provides a defence to anyone who performs an act in connection with the care and treatment of another person – in that person's best interest – reasonably believed to lack capacity in that matter.

A mathematical model for the age distribution of cancer in man

1969 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Cook ◽  
Richard Doll ◽  
S. A. Fellingham
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Age Distribution

An analysis of variations in the age structure of Fasciola hepatica populations in sheep

Parasitology ◽  
1982 ◽  
Vol 84 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary Smith
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Distribution Curve ◽  
Fasciola Hepatica ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Parasite Population ◽  
Simple Mathematical Model ◽  
Age Classes

SUMMARYThe processes which govern the age structure of Fasciola hepatica populations in sheep were investigated by means of a simple mathematical model. The mortality of the metacercariae on the pasture was shown to be a factor of major importance. The mortality rate depends on the micro-climate that prevails at the pasture surface, and thus the age distribution curve of a population of flukes is also determined in part by the weather. This has important implications for the chemotherapy of fascioliasis: flukicides are not equally effective over the whole range of age-classes of parasite and so the factors which govern the age distribution curve of the parasite population within individual hosts ultimately determine the efficiency of chemotherapy.

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