Causal relationship among international crude oil, gold, exchange rate, and stock market: Fresh evidence from NARDL testing approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suresh Kumar ◽  
Ankit Kumar ◽  
Gurcharan Singh
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Testing Approach

scholarly journals Examining causal relationship among stock market index, crude oil price, exchange rate amid COVID-19 era: an empirical evidence from Indian financial market using VAR model

2021 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 278-298
Author(s):  
Maneesh Kumar Pandey ◽  
Irina G. Sergeeva ◽  
Vishal Gudla
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The World

The year 2020, so far, has been relentlessly wreaking havoc on the very concept of life and work as we know them. This unprecedented event has been unfolding multiple worst-case scenarios on all fronts of our society and has eclipsed almost every other natural disasters of the modern world and pushing humanity on the verge of tipping point. Up to now, more than 29 million people have been infected and more than 1000 thousand have lost their lives because of COVID-19. So far, this epidemic has not only taken human lives but also snatched the livelihood of millions of people worldwide. Because of this epidemic, the world has been experiencing a kind of regressive mindset, where countries are looking inward, and all kinds of political, social, and economic relations are in a very confused state on account of this ongoing assault on them. Consequently, this epidemic has triggered a high level of skepticism in investors about the certainty of the rapid healing of the social and economic condition which is hindering the quick and healthy recovery of financial markets in most of the pandemic ridden countries of the world. The purpose of this study was to examine the causal relationship among various factors such as crude oils price, exchange rate, and stock market performance during Covid-19 in the context of financial market performance in India. Several methodologies have been applied during this study such Johansen co-integration test, vector autoregression model, and Granger causality test. The results have supported a significant causality among crude oil prices and the exchange rate on stock market performance.

scholarly journals THE ISLAMIC CAPITAL MARKET VOLATILITY: A COMPARATIVE STUDY BETWEEN IN INDONESIA AND MALAYSIA

2013 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 391-415
Author(s):  
Muhammad Syafii Antonio ◽  
Hafidhoh Hafidhoh ◽  
Hilman Fauzi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Jones Index

This study attempts to examine the short-term and long-term relationship among selected global anddomestic macroeconomic variables fromeach country (Fed rate, crude oil price, Dow Jones Index, interest rate, exchange rate and inflation) for Indonesia and Malaysia Islamic capital market (Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) and FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Shariah Index (FHSI). The methodology used in this study is vector error correction model (VECM) for the monthly data starting from January 2006 to December 2010. The result shows that in the long-term, all selectedmacroeconomic variables except Dow Jones Index variable have significantly affect in both Islamic stock market FHSI and JII, while in the short-term there is no any selected macroeconomic variables that significantly affect FHSI and only inflation, exchange rate and crude oil price variables seem to significantly affect JII. Keywords : Islamic Stock Market, Jakarta Islamic Index, FTSE Hijrah Shariah Index, VAR/VECMJEL Classification: E52, E44

scholarly journals Periodic Analysis of the Relationship between Gold, Crude Oil, Exchange Rate and India’s Stock Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-43
Author(s):  
Dr. Anil Kumar Kanungo ◽  
Puneet Dang
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Periodic Analysis ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to find out the relationship between price of Gold, price of Crude Oil, Exchange Rate of India, and India’s stock market. The research has been done on Pre-COVID time periods to analyse the relationship in scenarios like pre-global financial crisis, during crisis and post crisis. The authors incorporate the data from pre-crisis phases i.e., 2005 to 2019, to find out the relationship between the variables using Granger causality test, Johansen’s Cointegration, and Vector Autoregression. To study the spill-over effect on India’s stock market, regression has been used. The empirical results indicate that for the Pre-Crisis and Post-Crisis periods, “Gold” does granger cause “USDINR”, for all three periods “Crude oil” does granger cause “Gold”, for the crisis and post crisis periods “Gold” does granger cause “Crude oil”, for the post crisis period “USDINR” does granger cause “Crude oil”. No other causality relationship was established with the help of this empirical analysis. Johansen’s cointegration test revealed that no cointegration exists amongst the three variables. The impact of exchange rate on India’s stock market has changed as compared to the previous time periods. Exchange rate was inversely related to the stock markets for the Pre-Crisis and Crisis periods and is directly related to the stock market for the Post-Crisis period. This study adds to the existing literature on the variables, by using phase wise data and performing empirical analysis to find out the relationship between the variables. Not many literature demonstrate together the relationship among these three variables in three different periods. This is a significant gap that the study aimed to address.

Causal Relationship between Gold, Crude Oil & US Dollar Rates and S&P BSE 100 in India: An Experimental Study

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Suresh Gopal ◽  
Jothi Munusamy
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Research Software ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Indian Stock Market

In the present globalized business scenario, volatility in gold price, international crude oil price, and US Dollar exchange rate are likely to stimulate uncertainty in stock market conditions globally. The degree of uncertainty in stock market is high in the case of developing nations like India. Therefore, the study of causal relationship of gold, crude oil, and US Dollar rates with the stock market indices (S&P BSE 100) in India is more appropriate. The researchers have analyzed these macroeconomic variables along with the S&P BSE 100 with the help of econometric tools viz. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test for Unit-Root, Johansen Co-Integration Test, Pairwise Granger Causality Tests, Vector Auto Regression Modeling, Variance Decomposition test, and Impulse responses analysis. The econometric research software called EVIEWS 6 was used to apply all those tools successfully. The result shows that there is a high impression in the Indian stock market due to the volatility happens in the described macroeconomic factors.

Dynamic linkages among international crude oil, exchange rate and Norwegian stock market: evidence from ARDL bound testing approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shelly Singhal ◽  
Sangita Choudhary ◽  
Pratap Chandra Biswal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the long-run association and short-run causality among oil price, exchange rate and stock market in Norwegian context. Design/methodology/approach This work uses auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound co-integration test to examine the long-run association among international crude oil, exchange rate and Norwegian stock market. Further to test the causality, Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality test is used. Daily data ranging from 1 January, 2011 to 31 December, 2018 is used in this study. Findings Findings of this study suggest the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship among oil price, exchange rate and Norwegian stock market when oil price is taken as dependent variable. Further, this study observes the bi-directional causality between Norwegian stock market and exchange rate and unidirectional causality between oil and Norwegian stock market (from oil to stock market). Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this the first study in context of Norway to explore the long-run association and causal relationships among international crude oil price, exchange rate and stock market index. Particularly, association of exchange rate and stock market largely remains unexplored for Norwegian economy. Further, majority of studies conducted in Norwegian setup have considered the period up to year 2010 and association of these variables is found to be time varying. Finally, this study uses ARDL bound co-integration test and Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality test. These methodologies have been used in literature in context of other countries like India and Mexico but not yet applied to study the Norwegian case.

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