scholarly journals Periodic Analysis of the Relationship between Gold, Crude Oil, Exchange Rate and India’s Stock Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-43
Author(s):  
Dr. Anil Kumar Kanungo ◽  
Puneet Dang
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Periodic Analysis ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to find out the relationship between price of Gold, price of Crude Oil, Exchange Rate of India, and India’s stock market. The research has been done on Pre-COVID time periods to analyse the relationship in scenarios like pre-global financial crisis, during crisis and post crisis. The authors incorporate the data from pre-crisis phases i.e., 2005 to 2019, to find out the relationship between the variables using Granger causality test, Johansen’s Cointegration, and Vector Autoregression. To study the spill-over effect on India’s stock market, regression has been used. The empirical results indicate that for the Pre-Crisis and Post-Crisis periods, “Gold” does granger cause “USDINR”, for all three periods “Crude oil” does granger cause “Gold”, for the crisis and post crisis periods “Gold” does granger cause “Crude oil”, for the post crisis period “USDINR” does granger cause “Crude oil”. No other causality relationship was established with the help of this empirical analysis. Johansen’s cointegration test revealed that no cointegration exists amongst the three variables. The impact of exchange rate on India’s stock market has changed as compared to the previous time periods. Exchange rate was inversely related to the stock markets for the Pre-Crisis and Crisis periods and is directly related to the stock market for the Post-Crisis period. This study adds to the existing literature on the variables, by using phase wise data and performing empirical analysis to find out the relationship between the variables. Not many literature demonstrate together the relationship among these three variables in three different periods. This is a significant gap that the study aimed to address.

Periodic Analysis of the Relationship between Gold, Crude Oil, Exchange Rate and India’s Stock Market

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 28-43
Author(s):  
Anil Kumar Kanungo ◽  
Puneet Dang
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Periodic Analysis ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to find out the relationship between price of Gold, price of Crude Oil, Exchange Rate of India, and India’s stock market. The research has been done on Pre-COVID time periods to analyse the relationship in scenarios like pre-global financial crisis, during crisis and post crisis. The authors incorporate the data from pre-crisis phases i.e., 2005 to 2019, to find out the relationship between the variables using Granger causality test, Johansen’s Cointegration, and Vector Autoregression. To study the spill-over effect on India’s stock market, regression has been used. The empirical results indicate that for the Pre-Crisis and Post-Crisis periods, “Gold” does granger cause “USDINR”, for all three periods “Crude oil” does granger cause “Gold”, for the crisis and post crisis periods “Gold” does granger cause “Crude oil”, for the post crisis period “USDINR” does granger cause “Crude oil”. No other causality relationship was established with the help of this empirical analysis. Johansen’s cointegration test revealed that no cointegration exists amongst the three variables. The impact of exchange rate on India’s stock market has changed as compared to the previous time periods. Exchange rate was inversely related to the stock markets for the Pre-Crisis and Crisis periods and is directly related to the stock market for the Post-Crisis period. This study adds to the existing literature on the variables, by using phase wise data and performing empirical analysis to find out the relationship between the variables. Not many literature demonstrate together the relationship among these three variables in three different periods. This is a significant gap that the study aimed to address.

Phase-wise analysis of dynamic relationship among gold, crude oil, US dollar and stock market

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 480-499 ◽  
Author(s):  
Narinder Pal Singh ◽  
Sugandha Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic relationship among Gold, Crude oil, Indian Rupee-US Dollar and Stock market-Sensex (gold, oil, dollar and stock market (GODS)) in the pre-crisis, the crisis and the post-crisis periods in the Indian context. Design/methodology/approach The authors use Johansen’s cointegration technique, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Vector Auto Regression, VEC Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Test, and Granger Causality and Toda Yamamoto modified Granger causality to study long-run relationship and causality. Findings Johansen’s cointegration test results indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables in the pre-crisis and the crisis periods but not in post-crisis period. VECM results report that none of four models of the variables show long-run causality in the pre-crisis period. During the crisis period, both crude oil and Sensex models show long-run causality. However, in some cases, results indicate short-run causality. The authors find one-way causality from USD and Sensex to crude oil, and from gold and Sensex to USD. Thus, the authors conclude that the relationship among GODS is dynamic across global financial crisis. Practical implications The research findings of this study are vital to the large group of stakeholders and participants of gold, crude oil, US dollar and stock market in emerging economies like India. The results are useful to importers, exporters, government, policy makers, corporate houses, retail investors, portfolio managers, commodity traders, treasury and fund managers, other commercial traders, etc. Originality/value This study is one of its kinds as it investigates the relationship among GODS in India in different sub-periods like before, during and after the global financial crisis of 2008. None of the studies compare phase-wise relationship among GODS in the Indian context. The study contributes to the economic theory and the body of knowledge. It highlights the need to revisit the economic theory to explain the interplay mechanism among GODS.

scholarly journals Capital Investment and Profitability Across Malaysian Construction Sectors

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3.21) ◽  
pp. 281
Author(s):  
Lim Qi Yang ◽  
Suresh Ramakrishnan ◽  
Noriza Mohd Jamal ◽  
Maisarah Mohamed Saat ◽  
Muhammad Faizan Malik
Keyword(s):  
Capital Investment ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Effect Analysis ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Construction Firms ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Capital investment and profitability are the most important factors in every firms. Capital investment will determine profitability of the firm by having efficient and effective investment portfolio to the firm. This study investigates the relationship of capital investment and profitability among Malaysia listed construction firms from 2001-2014. Furthermore, this study also analyzes the impact of capital investment on profitability in different economic sub-periods. In addition, this study also used Pooled OLS analysis and fixed effect analysis to analyze and determine the relationship between dependent and independent variables. I.e.: capital investment such as investment to asset, capital expenditure and current capital expenditure along with profitability such as return on asset and return on equity as well as the control variables namely firm size and leverage. The overall results revealed that capital expenditure have significant relationship with return on asset and return on equity. On the other hand, the relationship between capital investment and profitability are differ across different economic sub-periods will produce different outcome. Investment to asset had significant impact towards return on asset and return on equity during pre-crisis period and post-crisis period but during Global Financial Crisis period current capital expenditure has the largest impact towards profitability of the firm.  

Global financial crisis, foreign portfolio investment and volatility

2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-195
Author(s):  
Abdelkader Derbali ◽  
Ali Lamouchi
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Portfolio Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Portfolio Investment ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Asian Emerging Markets ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to understand and compare the extent and nature of the impact of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) on the stock market volatility, particularly in the Southeast Asian emerging markets, and compare that against the corresponding experience of Indian economy, in the context of a global financial crisis of the recent past. Design/methodology/approach The Asian emerging markets are now being perceived as becoming financially more and more vulnerable to international events because of their growing exposure to unstable foreign investment flows. The daily net FPI inflow and the daily leading stock market composite index of four countries, namely, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and India, have been analyzed using autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH)-generalized ARCH group of models dividing the study period from 2000 to 2014 among pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis period separately. Findings The study reveals that the net inflow of FPI has been a significant determinant of stock market returns in all countries. The impact of volatility spillover from the FPI market to the stock market in the sample countries has been found to be different under different market conditions. The past information and volatility clustering have been significantly influencing the stock market return volatilities of all these Southeast Asian countries on average. Originality/value However, there are significant country-wise differences in the relative importance and direction of the relationship of each of these effects with the volatility of the FPI and the stock markets. These effects have been different in these four different markets and they have significantly altered in strength and significance during the global financial crisis and in the post-financial crisis period.

scholarly journals The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Oil-Dependent Countries’ Currencies: The Case of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 431
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Czech ◽  
Ibrahim Niftiyev
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
The Caspian Sea ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The paper aims to assess the relationship between Azerbaijani and Kazakhstani exchange rates and crude oil prices volatility. The study applies the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. The paper concentrates on Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, the post-Soviet countries considered as some of the most oil-dependent countries in the Caspian Sea region. The impulse response functions suggest that the rise of crude oil prices is associated with the exchange rates decrease and thus with an Azerbaijani manat and Kazakhstani tenge appreciation against the U.S. dollar. Moreover, the results suggest that an oil price increase leads to the rise of Azerbaijani international reserves. However, the results are insignificant for the Kazakhstani foreign exchange reserves. Additionally, the study reveals a negative and significant relationship between crude oil prices and USD/KZT in both pre-crisis and the COVID-19 crisis periods. We reveal that the correlation has been stronger during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the relationship is not significant in the case of the Azerbaijani manat. The USD/AZN exchange rate has been stable since 2017, and the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic has not caused a change in the exchange rate and a weakening of the Azerbaijani currency, despite significant drops in crude oil prices.

scholarly journals Impact of Macro - Economic Factors on Indian Stock Market- A Research of BSE Sectoral Indices

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2S7) ◽  
pp. 597-602
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
The Impact

Macro-Economic factors plays a major role in decision making. Evaluation of macroeconomic environment is required to examine the behaviour of stock prices, which further influences the investor’s investment behaviour. Even though some macro-economic factors are not directly related to the company or industry, but those factors has an impact on stock prices, further economic activity in the domestic and global level has its own impact on stock market. When economy of the country grows hastily, it leads to faster growth in the industry and vice versa. Financial market plays a central role in the performance of financial system of an economy. Stock market is a market where securities of listed companies are exchanged between different investors, it is very responsive market which, gives a stage to investors to invest their money in various securities. Market indices are the tools to measure the performance of various securities of stock market and Investors make use of those market indices to analyse performance of those industries in which, they prefer to invest. This study takes into account six macro-economic factors (Crude oil Price, Gold Price, Silver Price, Exchange Rate, Inflation and Interest Rate) to study & analyse the impact of these variables on selected sectoral indices at BSE, SENSEX, S&P BSE BANKEX, S&P BSE Oil and Gas, S&P BSE Capital Goods, S&P BSE Consumer Durables, S&P BSE Reality, S&P BSE PSU and S&P BSE Power. The study shows that gold price, exchange rate, consumer price index and interest rate are positively correlated with four indices but crude oil price and silver price have positively correlated with 3 indices. So from the result it is clear that investor need to take of all the variables for their investment decision and the investment banker also take care of these indicators before giving suggestion to their clients

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE ON STOCK MARKET INDICES

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 2044-2062
Author(s):  
Mustafa Hasan HAMAD AMEEN ◽  
Melik KAMIŞLI ◽  
Fatih TEMIZEL
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
International Business ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between exchange rate and stock indices has risen many eyebrows so far. These two fundamental financial markets have a significant role in international business all around the globe. Furthermore, exchange rate is one of the most important indicators that rules in the decision-making process in all firms. In order to understand the relationship between the two variables this paper tried to investigate the relationship between exchange rate of USD/TL and BIST-100 index in Turkish stock market. The data have been collected from January 2009 to March 2020 based on monthly data. VAR model is applied in the study to exam the connections between the variables. The findings reveal that there is only a one-way causality between the variables. Nevertheless, the impulse response results show a negative impact from the shocks of each variable to another.

Cointegration and Causality among Dollar, Oil, Gold and Sensex across Global Financial Crisis

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 365-376
Author(s):  
Narinder Pal Singh ◽  
Sugandha Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Financial Crisis Of 2008

Over the globe, the various financial markets are becoming integrated and the linkages among variables Gold prices, Crude Oil prices, US Dollar rate and Stock market (GODS) invite a special attention of various financial analysts and investors. For an import-dependent country like India, the interplay among these variables is vital. Thus in this study, we investigate the cointegration and causality relationship among gold, crude oil, us dollar and stock market (Sensex) across the global financial crisis of 2008. We use Johansen's cointegration technique, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Vector Auto Regression (VAR), VEC Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Test and Granger Causality, and Variance Decomposition to study cointegration and strength & direction of causality for three sub-periods. Johansen's cointegration test results indicate that there is long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables in the pre-crisis and the crisis periods but not in post-crisis period. VECM results report that none of four models of the variables show long-run causality in the pre-crisis period at 5% level of significance. During the crisis period, both crude oil and Sensex models show long run causality. However, in some cases short-run causality is indicated in results. Granger causality test results show that there is one-way causality from USD and Sensex to crude oil, and from gold and Sensex to USD. Thus, we conclude that the relationship among GODS is dynamic and has been affected by global financial crisis of 2008.

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