scholarly journals Tropical circulations and the associated rainfall anomalies during two contrasting years

1988 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 477-488 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary Toshie Kayano ◽  
Vadlamudi Brahmananda Rao ◽  
Antonio Divino Moura
Keyword(s):  
Rainfall Anomalies

scholarly journals Two-year consecutive concurrences of positive Indian Ocean Dipole and Central Pacific El Niño preconditioned the 2019/2020 Australian “black summer” bushfires

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Guojian Wang ◽  
Wenju Cai
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Greenhouse Warming ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific El Niño ◽  
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
The Future ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies

Abstract The 2019/20 Australian black summer bushfires were particularly severe in many respects, including its early commencement, large spatial coverage, and large number of burning days, preceded by record dry and hot anomalies. Determining whether greenhouse warming has played a role is an important issue. Here, we examine known modes of tropical climate variability that contribute to droughts in Australia to provide a gauge. We find that a two-year consecutive concurrence of the 2018 and 2019 positive Indian Ocean Dipole and the 2018 and 2019 Central Pacific El Niño, with the former affecting Southeast Australia, and the latter influencing eastern and northeastern Australia, may explain many characteristics of the fires. Such consecutive events occurred only once in the observations since 1911. Using two generations of state-of-the-art climate models under historical and a business-as-usual emission scenario, we show that the frequency of such consecutive concurrences increases slightly, but rainfall anomalies during such events are stronger in the future climate, and there are drying trends across Australia. The impact of the stronger rainfall anomalies during such events under drying trends is likely to be exacerbated by greenhouse warming-induced rise in temperatures, making such events in the future even more extreme.

scholarly journals Sources of Tropical Subseasonal Skill in the CFSv2

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (4) ◽  
pp. 1553-1565 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl J. Schreck ◽  
Matthew A. Janiga ◽  
Stephen Baxter
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves ◽  
Subseasonal Variability ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Fourier Filtering ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies ◽  
Combined Data

Abstract This study applies Fourier filtering to a combination of rainfall estimates from TRMM and forecasts from the CFSv2. The combined data are filtered for low-frequency (LF, ≥120 days) variability, the MJO, and convectively coupled equatorial waves. The filtering provides insight into the sources of skill for the CFSv2. The LF filter, which encapsulates persistent anomalies generally corresponding with SSTs, has the largest contribution to forecast skill beyond week 2. Variability within the equatorial Pacific is dominated by its response to ENSO, such that both the unfiltered and the LF-filtered forecasts are skillful over the Pacific through the entire 45-day CFSv2 forecast. In fact, the LF forecasts in that region are more skillful than the unfiltered forecasts or any combination of the filters. Verifying filtered against unfiltered observations shows that subseasonal variability has very little opportunity to contribute to skill over the equatorial Pacific. Any subseasonal variability produced by the model is actually detracting from the skill there. The MJO primarily contributes to CFSv2 skill over the Indian Ocean, particularly during March–May and MJO phases 2–5. However, the model misses opportunities for the MJO to contribute to skill in other regions. Convectively coupled equatorial Rossby waves contribute to skill over the Indian Ocean during December–February and the Atlantic Ocean during September–November. Convectively coupled Kelvin waves show limited potential skill for predicting weekly averaged rainfall anomalies since they explain a relatively small percent of the observed variability.

Heavy rainfall in the northern coast of Ecuador in the aftermath of El Niño 2015/2016 and its predictability 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis E. Pineda ◽  
Juan Changoluisa ◽  
Ángel G. Muñoz
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Rainfall Anomaly ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Northern Coast ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
The North ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies

<p>In January 2016, a high precipitation event (HPE) affected the northern coast of Ecuador leading to devastating flooding in the Esmeraldas’ river basin. The HPE appeared in the aftermath of the 2015/2016 El Niño as an early onset of heavy rainfalls otherwise expected in the core rainy season (Mar-Apr). Using gauge data, satellite imagery and reanalysis we investigate the daily and ‘weather-within-climate’ characteristics of the HPE and its accompanying atmospheric conditions. The convective storms developed into a mesoscale convective complex (MCC) during nighttime on 24<sup>th</sup> January. The scale size of the heavy rainfall system was about 250 km with a lifecycle lasting 16 hours for the complete storm with 6 hours of convective showers contributing to the HPE. The genesis of the MCC was related to above-normal moisture and orographic lifting driving convective updrafts; the north-south mountain barrier acted as both a channel boosting upslope flow when it moves over hillslopes; and, as a heavy-rain divide for inner valleys. The above normal moisture conditions were favored by cross-time-scale interactions involving the very strong El Niño 2015/2016 event, an unusually persistent Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) in phases 3 and 6, remotely forced by tropical synoptic scale disturbances. In the dissipation stage, a moderate low-level easterly shear with wind velocity of about 10 m/s moved away the unstable air and the convective pattern disappear on the shore of the Esmeraldas basin.</p><p> </p><p>We use ECMWF re-forecast from the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) prediction project dataset and satellite observations to investigate the predictability of the HPE. Weekly ensemble-mean rainfall anomaly forecasts computed from raw (uncorrected) S2S reforecast initialized on 31st Dec 2015, 7th, 14th and 21st Jan 2016 are used to assess the occurrence of rainfall anomalies over the region. The reforecast represents consistently, over all lead times, the spatial pattern of the HPE. Also, the ensemble-mean forecast shows positive rainfall anomalies at times scales of 1-3 weeks (0-21 days) at nearly all initialization dates and lead times, predicting this way successfully the timing and amplitude of the highest HPE leading the 25th January flood.</p>

scholarly journals The Interdecadal Variations and Causes of the Relationship Between Autumn Precipitation Anomalies in Eastern China and SSTA Over the Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liwei Huo ◽  
Zhaoyong Guan ◽  
Dachao Jin ◽  
Xi Liu ◽  
Xudong Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
The Other ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean

Abstract Eastern China has a large population with rapid development of the economy, where is the important crop producing region. In this region, the spatial and temporal distribution of autumn rainfall in Eastern China is uneven, which has important societal impact. Using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and other observational datasets, it is found that the spatial distribution of the first EOF mode of autumn rainfall anomalies in eastern China is consistent across the region, with significant interannual variabilities. Pronounced interdecadal variations are presented in the relationship between autumn rainfall anomalies in eastern China and sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) over the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO). The interdecadal changes have been analyzed by considering two epochs: one during 1979-2004 and the other during 2005-2019. It shows weak and insignificant correlations between the autumn rainfall anomalies in eastern China and SSTA over SETIO during the first epoch. On the other hand, they are remarkable and positively correlated with each other during the second epoch. The inter-decadal changes of the above relationship are related to the warming of SST over SETIO during the second epoch. It causes stronger low-level convergence and ascending motion over SETIO, with the co-occurrence of enhanced western Pacific subtropical high and anomalous abundant moisture over eastern China carried by a low-level southerly anomaly originating from the South China Sea. Simultaneously, the local Hadley circulation over eastern China becomes weak, corresponding to the anomalous ascending motion. The collaboration of anomalous water vapour transport and ascending motion strengthens the connection between the SETIO SSTA and the autumn precipitation anomalies in eastern China, and vice versa. In the boreal autumn of 2019, entire eastern China suffered extreme drought. It suggests that this drought event in eastern China is strongly affected by the negative SSTA over SETIO, which is consistent with the statistical results.

scholarly journals Variability of rainfall in Suriname and the relation with ENSO-SST and TA-SST

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 77-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. J. Nurmohamed ◽  
S. Naipal
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Rainfall ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Time Variability ◽  
Spatial Correlations ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Inter Tropical Convergence Zone ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies ◽  
Lagged Correlation

Abstract. Spatial correlations in the annual rainfall anomalies are analyzed using principle component analyses (PCA). Cross correlation analysis and composites are used to measure the influence of sea surface temperatures anomalies (SSTAs) in the tropical Atlantic and tropical Pacific Ocean with the seasonal rainfall in Suriname. The spatial and time variability in rainfall is mainly determined by the meridional movement of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Rainfall anomalies tend to occur fairly uniformly over the whole country. In December-January (short wet season), there is a lagged correlation with the SSTAs in the Pacific region (clag3Nino1+2=-0.63). The strongest correlation between the March-May rainfall (beginning long wet season) and the Pacific SSTAs is found with a correlation coefficient of ckNino1+2=0.59 at lag 1 month. The June-August rainfall (end part of long wet season) shows the highest correlation with SSTAs in the TSA region and is about c=-0.52 for lag 0. In the September-November long dry season there is also a lagged correlation with the TSA SSTAs of about clag3=0.66. The different correlations and predictors can be used for seasonal rainfall predictions.

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