Inter-annual variability of global monsoon precipitation in present-day and future warming scenarios based on 33 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (13) ◽  
pp. 4875-4890 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Ni ◽  
Pang-Chi Hsu
Keyword(s):  
Coupled Model ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Monsoon Precipitation ◽  
Global Monsoon ◽  
Annual Variability ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Future Warming

scholarly journals Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Stolpe ◽  
Katarzyna Tokarska ◽  
Sebastian Sippel ◽  
Erich Fischer ◽  
Christopher Smith ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Mitigation Scenario ◽  
Future Global Warming ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Future Warming

<div>Future global warming estimates have been similar across past assessments, but several climate models of the latest Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulate much stronger warming, apparently inconsistent with past assessments. Here we show that projected future warming is correlated with the simulated warming trend during recent decades across CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, enabling us to constrain future warming based on consistency with the observed warming. These findings carry important policy-relevant implications: the observationally-constrained CMIP6 median warming in high emissions and ambitious mitigation scenarios is over 16% and 14% lower by 2050 compared to the raw CMIP6 median, respectively, and over 14% and 8% lower by 2090, relative to 1995-2014. Observationally-constrained CMIP6 warming is consistent with previous assessments based on CMIP5 models, and in an ambitious mitigation scenario, the likely range is consistent with reaching the Paris Agreement target.</div><div> </div><div>Reference: </div><div>Tokarska, K.B.<sup>†</sup>, Stolpe, M.B.<sup>†</sup>, Sippel, S., Fischer, E.M., Smith, C.J., Lehner, F., and Knutti, R. (2020). Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models. <em>Science Advances</em>  (accepted).</div><div><sup>†</sup>equal first authors</div>

scholarly journals CAS FGOALS-f3-L Model Datasets for CMIP6 GMMIP Tier-1 and Tier-3 Experiments

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bian He ◽  
Yimin Liu ◽  
Guoxiong Wu ◽  
Qing Bao ◽  
Tianjun Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coupled Model ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
East African ◽  
Iranian Plateau ◽  
Global Monsoon ◽  
Tier 1 ◽  
Thermal Status ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Tier 3

AbstractThe Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System (FGOALS-f3-L) model datasets prepared for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project (GMMIP) Tier-1 and Tier-3 experiments are introduced in this paper, and the model descriptions, experimental design and model outputs are demonstrated. There are three simulations in Tier-1, with different initial states, and five simulations in Tier-3, with different topographies or surface thermal status. Specifically, Tier-3 contains four orographic perturbation experiments that remove the Tibetan–Iranian Plateau, East African and Arabian Peninsula highlands, Sierra Madre, and Andes, and one thermal perturbation experiment that removes the surface sensible heating over the Tibetan–Iranian Plateau and surrounding regions at altitudes above 500 m. These datasets will contribute to CMIP6’s value as a benchmark to evaluate the importance of long-term and short-term trends of the sea surface temperature in monsoon circulations and precipitation, and to a better understanding of the orographic impact on the global monsoon system over highlands.

scholarly journals FIO-ESM v2.0 Outputs for the CMIP6 Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project Experiments

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (10) ◽  
pp. 1045-1056 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yajuan Song ◽  
Xinfang Li ◽  
Ying Bao ◽  
Zhenya Song ◽  
Meng Wei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
South Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Global Monsoon ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract Three tiers of experiments in the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project (GMMIP), one of the endorsed model intercomparison projects of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), are implemented by the First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model version 2 (FIO-ESM v2.0), following the GMMIP protocols. Evaluation of global mean surface air temperature from 1870 to 2014 and climatological precipitation (1979–2014) in tier-1 shows that the atmosphere model of FIO-ESM v2.0 can reproduce the basic observed atmospheric features. In tier-2, the internal variability is captured by the coupled model, with the SST restoring to the model climatology plus the observed anomalies in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic. Simulation of the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon circulation is significantly improved by the SST restoration in the North Atlantic. In tier-3, five orographic perturbation experiments are conducted covering the period 1979–2014 by modifying the surface elevation or vertical heating in the prescribed region. In particular, the strength of the South Asian summer monsoon is reduced by removing the topography or thermal forcing above 500 m over the Asian continent. Monthly and daily simulated outputs of FIO-ESM v2.0 are provided through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) node to contribute to a better understanding of the global monsoon system.

scholarly journals Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (12) ◽  
pp. eaaz9549 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katarzyna B. Tokarska ◽  
Martin B. Stolpe ◽  
Sebastian Sippel ◽  
Erich M. Fischer ◽  
Christopher J. Smith ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Mitigation Scenario ◽  
Future Global Warming ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Future Warming

Future global warming estimates have been similar across past assessments, but several climate models of the latest Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulate much stronger warming, apparently inconsistent with past assessments. Here, we show that projected future warming is correlated with the simulated warming trend during recent decades across CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, enabling us to constrain future warming based on consistency with the observed warming. These findings carry important policy-relevant implications: The observationally constrained CMIP6 median warming in high emissions and ambitious mitigation scenarios is over 16 and 14% lower by 2050 compared to the raw CMIP6 median, respectively, and over 14 and 8% lower by 2090, relative to 1995–2014. Observationally constrained CMIP6 warming is consistent with previous assessments based on CMIP5 models, and in an ambitious mitigation scenario, the likely range is consistent with reaching the Paris Agreement target.

scholarly journals Future Changes in Simulated Evapotranspiration across Continental Africa Based on CMIP6 CNRM-CM6

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (13) ◽  
pp. 6760
Author(s):  
Isaac Kwesi Nooni ◽  
Daniel Fiifi T. Hagan ◽  
Guojie Wang ◽  
Waheed Ullah ◽  
Jiao Lu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
Model Ensembles ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Near Future

The main goal of this study was to assess the interannual variations and spatial patterns of projected changes in simulated evapotranspiration (ET) in the 21st century over continental Africa based on the latest Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) provided by the France Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM-CM) model in the Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) framework. The projected spatial and temporal changes were computed for three time slices: 2020–2039 (near future), 2040–2069 (mid-century), and 2080–2099 (end-of-the-century), relative to the baseline period (1995–2014). The results show that the spatial pattern of the projected ET was not uniform and varied across the climate region and under the SSP-RCPs scenarios. Although the trends varied, they were statistically significant for all SSP-RCPs. The SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0 projected higher ET seasonality than SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5. In general, we suggest the need for modelers and forecasters to pay more attention to changes in the simulated ET and their impact on extreme events. The findings provide useful information for water resources managers to develop specific measures to mitigate extreme events in the regions most affected by possible changes in the region’s climate. However, readers are advised to treat the results with caution as they are based on a single GCM model. Further research on multi-model ensembles (as more models’ outputs become available) and possible key drivers may provide additional information on CMIP6 ET projections in the region.

scholarly journals Atmospheric and Surface Contributions to Planetary Albedo

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (16) ◽  
pp. 4402-4418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron Donohoe ◽  
David S. Battisti
Keyword(s):  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Small Contribution ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Radiation Model ◽  
Phase 3 ◽  
Surface Reflection ◽  
Global Average ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Planetary Albedo

Abstract The planetary albedo is partitioned into a component due to atmospheric reflection and a component due to surface reflection by using shortwave fluxes at the surface and top of the atmosphere in conjunction with a simple radiation model. The vast majority of the observed global average planetary albedo (88%) is due to atmospheric reflection. Surface reflection makes a relatively small contribution to planetary albedo because the atmosphere attenuates the surface contribution to planetary albedo by a factor of approximately 3. The global average planetary albedo in the ensemble average of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) preindustrial simulations is also primarily (87%) due to atmospheric albedo. The intermodel spread in planetary albedo is relatively large and is found to be predominantly a consequence of intermodel differences in atmospheric albedo, with surface processes playing a much smaller role despite significant intermodel differences in surface albedo. The CMIP3 models show a decrease in planetary albedo under a doubling of carbon dioxide—also primarily due to changes in atmospheric reflection (which explains more than 90% of the intermodel spread). All models show a decrease in planetary albedo due to the lowered surface albedo associated with a contraction of the cryosphere in a warmer world, but this effect is small compared to the spread in planetary albedo due to model differences in the change in clouds.

scholarly journals Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in CMIP5 Models: RCP and Historical Simulations

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (18) ◽  
pp. 7187-7197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Cheng ◽  
John C. H. Chiang ◽  
Dongxiao Zhang
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
First Century ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
The North ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) simulated by 10 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for the historical (1850–2005) and future climate is examined. The historical simulations of the AMOC mean state are more closely matched to observations than those of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Similarly to CMIP3, all models predict a weakening of the AMOC in the twenty-first century, though the degree of weakening varies considerably among the models. Under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario, the weakening by year 2100 is 5%–40% of the individual model's historical mean state; under RCP8.5, the weakening increases to 15%–60% over the same period. RCP4.5 leads to the stabilization of the AMOC in the second half of the twenty-first century and a slower (then weakening rate) but steady recovery thereafter, while RCP8.5 gives rise to a continuous weakening of the AMOC throughout the twenty-first century. In the CMIP5 historical simulations, all but one model exhibit a weak downward trend [ranging from −0.1 to −1.8 Sverdrup (Sv) century−1; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1] over the twentieth century. Additionally, the multimodel ensemble–mean AMOC exhibits multidecadal variability with a ~60-yr periodicity and a peak-to-peak amplitude of ~1 Sv; all individual models project consistently onto this multidecadal mode. This multidecadal variability is significantly correlated with similar variations in the net surface shortwave radiative flux in the North Atlantic and with surface freshwater flux variations in the subpolar latitudes. Potential drivers for the twentieth-century multimodel AMOC variability, including external climate forcing and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the implication of these results on the North Atlantic SST variability are discussed.

scholarly journals Experimental and diagnostic protocol for the physical component of the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen M. Griffies ◽  
Gokhan Danabasoglu ◽  
Paul J. Durack ◽  
Alistair J. Adcroft ◽  
V. Balaji ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Companion Paper ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Experimental Protocol ◽  
Diagnostic Protocol ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) aims to provide a framework for evaluating, understanding, and improving the ocean and sea-ice components of global climate and earth system models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). OMIP addresses these aims in two complementary manners: (A) by providing an experimental protocol for global ocean/sea-ice models run with a prescribed atmospheric forcing, (B) by providing a protocol for ocean diagnostics to be saved as part of CMIP6. We focus here on the physical component of OMIP, with a companion paper (Orr et al., 2016) offering details for the inert chemistry and interactive biogeochemistry. The physical portion of the OMIP experimental protocol follows that of the interannual Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). Since 2009, CORE-I (Normal Year Forcing) and CORE-II have become the standard method to evaluate global ocean/sea-ice simulations and to examine mechanisms for forced ocean climate variability. The OMIP diagnostic protocol is relevant for any ocean model component of CMIP6, including the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments), historical simulations, FAFMIP (Flux Anomaly Forced MIP), C4MIP (Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate MIP), DAMIP (Detection and Attribution MIP), DCPP (Decadal Climate Prediction Project), ScenarioMIP (Scenario MIP), as well as the ocean-sea ice OMIP simulations. The bulk of this paper offers scientific rationale for saving these diagnostics.

scholarly journals Experimental protocol for sealevel projections from ISMIP6 standalone ice sheet models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophie Nowicki ◽  
Antony J. Payne ◽  
Heiko Goelzer ◽  
Helene Seroussi ◽  
William H. Lipscomb ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Ice Sheet Modeling ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Projection of the contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (CMIP6) takes the form of simulations from coupled ice-sheet-climate models and standalone ice sheet models, overseen by the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). This paper describes the experimental setup for process-based sea-level change projections to be performed with standalone Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet models in the context of ISMIP6. The ISMIP6 protocol relies on a suite of polar atmospheric and oceanic CMIP-based forcing for ice sheet models, in order to explore the uncertainty in projected sea-level change due to future emissions scenarios, CMIP models, ice sheet models, and parameterizations for ice-ocean interactions. We describe here the approach taken for defining the suite of ISMIP6 standalone ice sheet simulations, document the experimental framework and implementation, as well as present an overview of the ISMIP6 forcing to be used by participating ice sheet modeling groups.

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