Predicting impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of two interacting species in the forests of western Iran

SUMMARYDate palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) is an important cash crop in many countries, including Saudi Arabia. Understanding the likely potential distribution of this crop under current and future climate scenarios will enable environmental managers to prepare appropriate strategies to manage the changes. In the current study, the simulation model CLIMEX was used to develop a niche model to estimate the impacts of climate change on the current and future potential distribution of date palm. Two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3·0 and MIROC-H under the A2 emission scenario for 2050 and 2100, were used to assess the impacts of climate change. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify which model parameters had the most effect on date palm distribution. Further refinements of the potential distributions were performed through the integration of six non-climatic parameters in a geographic information system. Areas containing suitable soil taxonomy, soil texture, soil salinity, land use, landform and slopes of <7° for date palm were selected as suitable refining variables in order to achieve more realistic models. The results from both GCMs exhibited a significant reduction in climatic suitability for date palm cultivation in Saudi Arabia by 2100. Climate sensitivity analysis indicates that the lower optimal soil moisture, cold stress temperature threshold and wet stress threshold parameters had the most effect on sensitivity, while other parameters were moderately sensitive or insensitive to change. The study also demonstrated that the inclusion of non-climatic parameters with CLIMEX outputs increased the explanatory power of the models. Such models can provide early warning scenarios for how environmental managers should respond to changes in the distribution of the date palm in Saudi Arabia.

Download Full-text

Biodiversity impacts of climate change – the PRONAS software as educational tool

Web Ecology ◽

10.5194/we-15-49-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 15 (1) ◽

pp. 49-58

Author(s):

K. Ulbrich ◽

O. Schweiger ◽

S. Klotz ◽

J. Settele

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Educational Software ◽

Current Knowledge ◽

Young Generation ◽

Interacting Species ◽

Habitat Dynamics ◽

Close Cooperation ◽

Awareness Raising ◽

The Impact ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. Loss of biodiversity under climate change is on the top of European research agendas. However, there is a huge gap between the scientific and the educational communities: Only a small amount of current knowledge reaches the young generation. We faced the challenge of how to transfer results of biodiversity research to the reality of school classrooms – in a way that raises interest, awareness and motivation among students from the age of 12 to 19. We developed the educational software PRONAS (PROjections of NAture for Schools) to show how scientists handle questions about the impact of climate change on the habitats of many European species. About 50 European plant and animal species have been used to demonstrate habitat losses, habitat shifts, and mismatch of habitat dynamics of interacting species. The software was developed with a bottom-up approach, and a manual for applying the software in the classroom was written in close cooperation with teachers. We included specific elements of didactic approaches such as storylines describing future scenarios, projections and simulations of species' future climatic niches, as well as the combination of virtual and real excursions. PRONAS is freely accessible in German and English on http://www.ufz.de/pronas-lernsoftware. Feedback was given by about 100 teachers from German and other European schools at six teacher workshops and by 141 students from four German schools. While most teachers confirmed that the designed format of knowledge transfer is attractive and contributes to knowledge building and awareness raising, many students older than 16 felt under-challenged. Altogether, we found that "educational software" is a useful format for scientific outreach which is worth joint efforts of scientists and educators and which needs more support and incentives for scientists to go forward in this direction.

Download Full-text