Maxent Modelling Predicts a Shift in Suitable Habitats of a Subtropical Evergreen Tree (Cyclobalanopsis glauca (Thunberg) Oersted) under Climate Change Scenarios in China

Climate change has caused substantial shifts in the geographical distribution of many species. There is growing evidence that many species are migrating in response to climate change. Changes in the distribution of dominant tree species induced by climate change can have an impact not only on organisms such as epiphytes and understory vegetation, but also on the whole ecosystem. Cyclobalanopsis glauca is a dominant tree species in the mingled evergreen and deciduous broadleaf forests of China. Understanding their adaptive strategies against climate change is important for understanding the future community structure. We employed the Maxent framework to model current suitable habitats of C. glauca under current climate conditions and predicted it onto the climate scenarios for 2041–2060 and 2081–2100 using 315 occurrence data. Our results showed that annual precipitation was the most critical factor for the distribution of C. glauca. In the future, increasing precipitation would reduce the limitation of water on habitats, leading to an expansion of the distribution to a higher latitude and higher altitude. At the same time, there were habitat contractions at the junction of the Jiangxi and Fujian Provinces. This study can provide vital information for the management of C. glauca, and serve as a reminder for managers to protect C. glauca in the range contraction areas.

CLIMATE RISK VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE MAJOR CROPS IN THE PROVINCE OF AGUSAN DEL NORTE, PHILIPPINES

Assessing an area's vulnerability can serve as an effective planning tool to increase resilience to climate-related hazards. This paper provides information on the most vulnerable municipalities to climate change impacts in the province of Agusan del Norte, Philippines. The assessment included in the geospatial analysis were physical, agro-ecological, and socio-economic indicators clustered under the components of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Using MaxEnt, modelling the suitability of crops due to changes in temperature and precipitation by the year 2050 determines the crops' sensitivity. A combination of natural hazards datasets was used to estimate the extent of exposure to each municipality within the province under pressure from climate and hydro-meteorological risks. An up-to-date database from the concerned local government units for adaptive capacity indicators was clustered into seven capitals: economic, natural, human, physical, social, anticipatory, and institutional. The total CRV model for rice, corn, and banana crops revealed that the municipalities identified as highly vulnerable due to their high exposure to climate hazards, the decreasing crops' suitability to climate variability, and low adaptive capacity.

Nesting habitat preference and breeding of Asian Woollyneck (Ciconia episcopus) in Nepal

Background: Asian Woollyneck Ciconia episcopus is large wading bird whose conservation status has been recently down-listed, despite a lack of general knowledge on its nesting ecology and breeding success. Thus, in this study we conducted the most comprehensive survey on the nesting ecology of this species to date. Methods: We located 39 nesting sites across 18 districts of Nepal and recorded nest tree characteristics for the nine tree species they nested in. We also used Maxent modelling to further understand factors important for nesting habitat suitability and to identify new areas for future surveys. Results: They most commonly nested in Simal Bombax ceiba (n =21), followed by Sal Shorea robusta (n=6) and Salla Pinus roxburghii (n=4). The mean height of the nesting tree, nest height and tree diameter were 29.8 ± 5.8m (±SD), 1.03 ± 0.35m & 25.3 ± 5.8 m respectively. Nesting and fledging success were additionally recorded from 31 nesting attempts at 19 of these nesting sites between 2016 and 2020. Woollyneck had an estimated nesting success probability of 0.81 ± 0.07 and a mean fledging success of 1.94 ± 0.25 (±SE) chicks per nest. MaxEnt modelling identified a total potential suitable nesting habitat area of 9.64 % (14228km2) of total area in Nepal, with this located within 72 districts (out of 77), mostly in the western part of Nepal. The modelling parameters suggest that slope, land-use, precipitation and forest were important determinants of nesting habitat suitability. Conclusions: The most likely district reported by the model for Woollyneck nesting habitat has not previously reported nests which suggests additional survey effort in this region is warranted. We recommend that priority should be given to conserve taller trees close to settlements and cropland, and future studies should consider the potential impact of climate change on nesting suitability of this species.

Diversity, distribution, and drivers of Polychromophilus infection in Malagasy bats

Background Numerous studies have been undertaken to advance knowledge of apicomplexan parasites infecting vertebrates, including humans. Of these parasites, the genus Plasmodium has been most extensively studied because of the socio-economic and public health impacts of malaria. In non-human vertebrates, studies on malaria or malaria-like parasite groups have been conducted but information is far from complete. In Madagascar, recent studies on bat blood parasites indicate that three chiropteran families (Miniopteridae, Rhinonycteridae, and Vespertilionidae) are infected by the genus Polychromophilus with pronounced host specificity: Miniopterus spp. (Miniopteridae) harbour Polychromophilus melanipherus and Myotis goudoti (Vespertilionidae) is infected by Polychromophilus murinus. However, most of the individuals analysed in previous studies were sampled on the western and central portions of the island. The aims of this study are (1) to add new information on bat blood parasites in eastern Madagascar, and (2) to highlight biotic and abiotic variables driving prevalence across the island. Methods Fieldworks were undertaken from 2014 to 2016 in four sites in the eastern portion of Madagascar to capture bats and collect biological samples. Morphological and molecular techniques were used to identify the presence of haemosporidian parasites. Further, a MaxEnt modelling was undertaken using data from Polychromophilus melanipherus to identify variables influencing the presence of this parasite Results In total, 222 individual bats belonging to 17 species and seven families were analysed. Polychromophilus infections were identified in two families: Miniopteridae and Vespertilionidae. Molecular data showed that Polychromophilus spp. parasitizing Malagasy bats form a monophyletic group composed of three distinct clades displaying marked host specificity. In addition to P. melanipherus and P. murinus, hosted by Miniopterus spp. and Myotis goudoti, respectively, a novel Polychromophilus lineage was identified from a single individual of Scotophilus robustus. Based on the present study and the literature, different biotic and abiotic factors are shown to influence Polychromophilus infection in bats, which are correlated based on MaxEnt modelling. Conclusions The present study improves current knowledge on Polychromophilus blood parasites infecting Malagasy bats and confirms the existence of a novel Polychromophilus lineage in Scotophilus bats. Additional studies are needed to obtain additional material of this novel lineage to resolve its taxonomic relationship with known members of the genus. Further, the transmission mode of Polychromophilus in bats as well as its potential effect on bat populations should be investigated to complement the results provided by MaxEnt modelling and eventually provide a comprehensive picture of the biology of host-parasite interactions.

At the end of the world? Settlement in the Šumava mountains and foothills in later prehistory

The aim of this paper is to explore and define the boundary of the zone of inland, mainly agricultural settlement in southern and western Bohemia, Czech Republic in the later prehistory, and to try to determine why such settlement appears not to have spread further into the Šumava foothills and mountains. With the help of predictive MaxEnt modelling – used in ecology to determine the degree of uncertainty in the geographic distribution of species – and using a comparison with data on soil productivity, we explore whether in later prehistory the agricultural settlement was limited by unsuitable natural conditions or by other factors. The boundaries of the territory suitable for agropastoral farming most probably moved in time with technological advances, increases in population density, and the changing preferences of inhabitants of the Bronze and Iron Ages. The margin of agricultural settlement in the foothills describes a line beyond which agriculture had become unprofitable; a similar boundary existed throughout the Early Middle Ages. At the same time, there was a good deal of contact across the mountains with Bavaria and Upper Austria, as is shown by archaeology both in the form of similarities between the prehistoric typo-chronological complexes and by finds of bronze and iron items along presumed routes of access. There were also montane sites (whose function is still unknown) situated beyond the margin of the agricultural zone, such as the recently discovered settlements on the Křemelná river. Apart from prospection, a wide range of other activities could have taken place, including those connected with communication and routes of access to Bavaria and Upper Austria, with which Šumava formed a common typo-chronological group.

Climate Change May Imperil Tea Production in the Four Major Tea Producers According to Climate Prediction Models

The threat of accelerating climate change on species distribution now and in the future is a topic of increasing research interest. However, little work has been undertaken to assess how shifting climates will affect the suitability of tea cultivation. Therefore, we used MaxEnt modelling to project the impact of current and future climatic scenarios on the potential distribution of tea across the four tea-producing countries of China, India, Kenya and Sri Lanka. Projections were made for the years 2050 and 2070 with three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using seven bioclimatic predictors under three global circulation models (GCMs). The current and future habitat suitability for tea predicted by the models produced a high accuracy rate, with high areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) for all tested RCPs under the three GCMs for the four countries. The mean true skill statistic (TSS) values for tea in Sri Lanka, Kenya, India and China were 0.80, 0.91, 0.91, and 0.74, respectively. The kappa values (k) of the current and future models for all four countries ranged from 0.40 to 0.75, which indicates that the overall performance of the model was good. The precipitation seasonality and annual precipitation were found to be the most influential variables in Sri Lanka and India, respectively, while annual mean temperature was the most effective contributor for determining the suitability of habitat for tea in Kenya and China. An important proviso is that some existing tea-growing areas will face reduced suitability for future tea cultivation suggesting that by 2050 there will be a drastic reduction in the optimal suitability by averages of 26.2%, 14%, and 4.7% in Kenya, Sri Lanka and China, respectively. The optimal suitability will be reduced by 15.1%, 28.6% and 2.6% in Kenya, Sri Lanka and China, respectively, by 2070. India displays an advantage in projected future climates as it gains optimal suitability areas of 15% by 2050 and 25% by 2070.

Distribution modelling of the Pudu deer (Pudu puda) in southern Chile

The Pudu deer (Pudu puda) is endemic to the temperate rainforest of Chile and Argentina and currently faces serious conservation problems related to habitat loss. However, studies undertaken on this species are not sufficient to identify suitable areas for conservation purposes across its distribution range. In order to estimate the current and future distribution of the Pudu deer in southern Chile, we modelled the potential distribution of this species, based on occurrence points taken from seven contiguous provinces of this area using the Maxent modelling method. The Pudu deer distribution covered an estimated area of 17,912 km2 (24.1% of the area analysed), using a probability of occurrence above 0.529, according to the threshold that maximises the sum of sensitivity and specificity. In contrast to the Andes mountain range, areas with higher probabilities of occurrence were distributed mainly on the eastern and western slopes of the Coastal Mountain Range, where extensive coverage of native forest persists, as occurs in the provinces of Ranco, Osorno and Llanquihue. Projections to 2070, with global warming scenarios of 2.6 and 8.5 rcp, revealed that large areas will conserve their habitability, especially in the Coastal mountain range. Our results reveal that the Coastal mountain range has a high current and future habitability condition for the Pudu deer, a fact which may have conservation implications for this species.