211 Background: The United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommended against routine PSA based prostate cancer screening in all men in 2012. This led to dramatic reductions in screening and rates of localized disease across all clinical risk groups. We sought to study the impact of this on rates of metastatic disease, specifically by patient race and age. Methods: We analyzed new prostate cancer incidence by stage at diagnosis between 1988-2013 within the Cancer Registry of Greater California. We further stratified cases by four major race/ethnicity groups (non-Hispanic white (NHW), non-Hispanic black (NHB), Hispanic and non-Hispanic Asian/PI (API)) and age. Incidence rates were calculated and compared per 100,000 and age-adjusted to the 2000 US Standard Population. Joinpoint regression was used to detect changes in incidence and to calculate the average percent change (APC). Results: Adjusted rates of remote prostate cancer incidence for NHW men increased slightly in the most recent decade (+0.28%) after steady declines in previous years with the inflection point occurring in 2002, however this was not statistically significant. In contrast, incidence of remote prostate cancer continued to decline for NHB (-2.73%), Hispanic (-2.04%), and API (-1.45%) men. The greatest increase of +1.1% a year since 2002 was observed for NHW men under age 65. The incidence of localized prostate cancer declined for all race/ethnicity groups over the most recent time period and also declined in all age groups. After remaining relatively flat since 1992, incidence of localized prostate cancer among NHW men declined by over 8% per year starting in 2007 compared with a more gradual decline of -3.52% a year since 2000 for NHB, and more recent declines of -14.41% and -16.64% for Hispanic and API men, respectively. Incidence of regional stage cancer also declined in all groups, but less dramatically. Conclusions: Incidence rates of newly metastatic prostate cancer have not significantly changed since PSA screening declined in the US although we noted a slight upward trend primarily for younger, white men since 2002.
Prostate Cancer Incidence and Survival, by Stage and Race/Ethnicity — United States, 2001–2017