Application of Predictive Models in Quantitative Risk Assessment and Risk Management

2012 ◽  
pp. 87-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Pérez-Rodríguez ◽  
Antonio Valero
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Predictive Models ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment

Implementation of Quantitative Risk Assessment: Case Study

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Mangold ◽  
W. Kent Muhlbauer ◽  
Jim Ponder ◽  
Tony Alfano
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
The United States ◽  
Management Program ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Classical Statistics ◽  
Wide Range

Risk management of pipelines is a complex challenge due to the dynamic environment of the real world coupled with a wide range of system types installed over many decades. Various methods of risk assessment are currently being used in industry, many of which utilize relative scoring. These assessments are often not designed for the new integrity management program (IMP) requirements and are under direct challenge by regulators. SemGroup had historically used relative risk assessment methodologies to help support risk management decision-making. While the formality offered by these early methods provided benefits, it was recognized that, in order to more effectively manage risk and better meet the United States IMP objectives, a more effective risk assessment would be needed. A rapid and inexpensive migration into a better risk assessment platform was sought. The platform needed to be applicable not only to pipeline miles, but also to station facilities and all related components. The risk results had to be readily understandable and scalable, capturing risks from ‘trap to trap’ in addition to risks accompanying each segment. The solution appeared in the form a quantitative risk assessment that was ‘physics based’ rather than the classical statistics based QRA. This paper will outline the steps involved in this transition process and show how quantitative risk assessment may be efficiently implemented to better guide integrity decision-making, illustrated with a case study from SemGroup.

Industry Process Safety

2020 ◽  
pp. 117-151
Author(s):  
Ales Bernatik
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Technical Progress ◽  
Accident Prevention ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Process Safety ◽  
Industrial Accidents ◽  
New Approaches ◽  
Industrial Companies ◽  
Major Accident

This chapter deals with the issue of process safety in industrial companies and major accident prevention. In the present-day technologically advanced world, industrial accidents appear ever more frequently, and the field of major accident prevention has become a dynamically developing discipline. With accelerating technical progress, risks of industrial accidents are to be reduced. In the first part, possible approaches to quantitative risk assessment are presented; and continuing it focuses on the system of risk management in industrial establishments. This chapter aims at providing experiences, knowledge, as well as new approaches to the prevention of major accidents caused by the implementation of the Seveso III Directive.

Utilizing Modern Data and Technologies for Pipeline Risk Assessment

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Mangold ◽  
Ryan Huntley
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Overland Flow ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Core Element ◽  
Gas Dispersion

Risk management of gas and hazardous liquid pipeline systems is a core element of US integrity management regulations (49 CFR part 192, subpart O; 49 CFR 195.452) and a challenging responsibility facing operators worldwide. The importance of health, safety, and environmental protection demands a continuous evolution of industry expectations, practices, and regulations, with regulators and operators invariably seeking ways to advance risk modeling methodologies for pipeline risk assessment. The evolution to more advanced risk modeling methodologies marks a transitional trend from simple, relative risk models to robust, quantitative risk models. A common challenge when implementing a more advanced risk model is supplying sufficient supporting data. This challenge highlights a necessary, parallel progression; the expansion of data availability and improvement of data quality to support risk management. Many data resources have become available to aid this progression through advancements in spatial processing, computational technologies, and data collection and availability across industries. Powerful analysis tools are now available to supply pressure loss, overland flow, liquid trace, and gas dispersion information to enhance risk modeling, along with a vast and increasing amount of publicly available data and statistics. Proper integration of this information can greatly reduce the challenges associated with the implementation of quantitative risk assessment and better support risk-based decision making. This paper details the availability and utilization of modem data and technologies for pipeline risk assessment. Examples are provided which illustrate the integration of data and technology resources to support a robust, quantitative risk model.

scholarly journals Cybersecurity Risk Assessment in Smart City Infrastructures

Machines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 78
Author(s):  
Maxim Kalinin ◽  
Vasiliy Krundyshev ◽  
Peter Zegzhda
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Smart City ◽  
Urban Infrastructure ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Main Concern ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Security Indicators ◽  
Cyber Risk

The article is devoted to cybersecurity risk assessment of the dynamic device-to-device networks of a smart city. Analysis of the modern security threats at the IoT/IIoT, VANET, and WSN inter-device infrastructures demonstrates that the main concern is a set of network security threats targeted at the functional sustainability of smart urban infrastructure, the most common use case of smart networks. As a result of our study, systematization of the existing cybersecurity risk assessment methods has been provided. Expert-based risk assessment and active human participation cannot be provided for the huge, complex, and permanently changing digital environment of the smart city. The methods of scenario analysis and functional analysis are specific to industrial risk management and are hardly adaptable to solving cybersecurity tasks. The statistical risk evaluation methods force us to collect statistical data for the calculation of the security indicators for the self-organizing networks, and the accuracy of this method depends on the number of calculating iterations. In our work, we have proposed a new approach for cybersecurity risk management based on object typing, data mining, and quantitative risk assessment for the smart city infrastructure. The experimental study has shown us that the artificial neural network allows us to automatically, unambiguously, and reasonably assess the cyber risk for various object types in the dynamic digital infrastructures of the smart city.

scholarly journals Approaches to the assessment the innovation-and-investment projects within the system of “Smart City” criteria

2019 ◽  
Vol 97 ◽  
pp. 01022
Author(s):  
Tatyana Miroshnikova ◽  
Natalia Taskaeva
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Smart City ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Modern Approach ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Construction Companies ◽  
Construction Organizations ◽  
The Impact

The article clarifies the understanding of modern approaches to risk management in construction organizations. The authors have formed a classification of the sources of risks in construction and the reasons causing the uncertainty of the conditions of operation of construction companies. The researchers identified factors that require control in the construction industry. The authors offer, that “smart city” assumes six criteria, including smart economy, smart mobility, smart environment, smart people, smart living, smart governance. The consideration of the tendency to innovations and the assessment of innovation-and-investment risks within the concept “Smart city” was carried out for the Russian practice for the first time. The risk assessment is offered to be carried out with the use of the modern approach. The proposed approach to improve risk management, according to which all the basic processes of risk management should be carried out at each stage of the life cycle of a construction object. The authors propose to use certain methods of qualitative and quantitative risk assessment, enshrined in the risk management standard, at the appropriate stages of the life cycle of a construction object in terms of their advantages. This will increase the effectiveness of risk management and minimize the impact of risk factors identified by researchers on the performance of construction organizations. Research of risk management systems allowed us to determine the priorities and problems of construction companies in the field of risk management and increase its efficiency.

Holistic geoethical slope portfolio risk assessment

2020 ◽  
pp. SP508-2019-157
Author(s):  
Franco Oboni ◽  
César Henri Oboni
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Ethical Issues ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Portfolio Risk ◽  
The Public ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Global Impacts ◽  
Environment And Development

AbstractLandslides of natural and man-made slopes represent hazardous geomorphological processes that contribute to highly variable risks. Their consequences generally include loss of life and infrastructural, environmental and cultural assets damage.Prioritizing and mitigating slope risks in a sustainable manner, while considering climate change, is related to geoethics, as any misallocation of resources will likely lead to increased risk to the public.Until recently there was little recognition of the causes and global impacts of human actions. Today, threat-denying humans can be identified as acting inappropriately and ultimately unethically. Sustainable risk management and ethical issues should be discussed simultaneously to avoid the ‘discipline silo trap’ and hazardous omissions.This contribution discusses slope risk management at various scales, i.e. how to ensure better allotment of mitigative funds while complying with sustainability goals and geoethical requirements. In 1987, the World Commission on Environment and Development published a report (also known as the Brundtland Report (Brundtland 1987. World Commission on Environment and Development Report)) that defined sustainable development as meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.The three case histories discussed in this contribution show how sustainability and ethics can be fostered by using rational, repeatable, transparent quantitative risk assessment applicable at the local scale as well as on a large scale.

Industry Process Safety

2022 ◽  
pp. 960-995
Author(s):  
Ales Bernatik
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Technical Progress ◽  
Accident Prevention ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Process Safety ◽  
Industrial Accidents ◽  
New Approaches ◽  
Industrial Companies ◽  
Major Accident

This chapter deals with the issue of process safety in industrial companies and major accident prevention. In the present-day technologically advanced world, industrial accidents appear ever more frequently, and the field of major accident prevention has become a dynamically developing discipline. With accelerating technical progress, risks of industrial accidents are to be reduced. In the first part, possible approaches to quantitative risk assessment are presented; and continuing it focuses on the system of risk management in industrial establishments. This chapter aims at providing experiences, knowledge, as well as new approaches to the prevention of major accidents caused by the implementation of the Seveso III Directive.

scholarly journals Mining Business Risk Management

2020 ◽  
Vol 174 ◽  
pp. 04043
Author(s):  
Olena Kozyrieva ◽  
Veronika Khudolei ◽  
Valentina Vyhovska ◽  
Maksym Zabashtanskyi ◽  
Andrii Rogovyi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Human Error ◽  
Occupational Safety ◽  
Mining Industry ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Occupational Accidents ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Management Standards ◽  
Mining Investment

In the mining industry, as a dangerous industry related to the specifics of its production, in particular, the process of risk management and analysis should be taken into account. One of the main reasons of occupational accidents, in addition to human error and technical failures, is the lack of foresight of possible accidental events, and the lack of assessment by a company of the risks associated with occupational safety. The article considers the main risks in the mining industry, analyses the problems of modern systems of risk assessment and management of mining investment projects, methods and sequence of qualitative and quantitative risk assessment, provides recommendations for their improvement in order to bring them in line with international risk management standards.

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