Comparison of PIR to PIPESAFE-Based 1% Lethality Zones for Natural Gas Pipelines

A lethality zone due to an ignited natural gas release is often used to characterize the consequences of a pipeline rupture. A 1% lethality zone defines a zone where the lethality to a human is greater than or equal to 1%. The boundary of the zone is defined by the distance (from the point of rupture) at which the probability of lethality is 1%. Currently in the gas pipeline industry, the most detailed and validated method for calculating this zone is embodied in the PIPESAFE software. PIPESAFE is a software tool developed by a joint industry group for undertaking quantitative risk assessments of natural gas pipelines. PIPESAFE consequence models have been verified in laboratory experiments, full scale tests, and actual failures, and have been extensively used over the past 10–15 years for quantitative risk calculations. The primary advantage of using PIPESAFE is it allows for accurate estimation of the likelihood of lethality inside the impacted zone (i.e. receptors such as structures closer to the failure are subject to appropriately higher lethality percentages). Potential Impact Radius (PIR) is defined as the zone in which the extent of property damage and serious or fatal injury would be expected to be significant. It corresponds to the 1% lethality zone for a natural gas pipeline of a certain diameter and pressure when thermal radiation and exposure are taken into account. PIR is one of the two methods used to identify HCAs in US (49 CFR 192.903). Since PIR is a widely used parameter and given that it can be interpreted to delineate a 1% lethality zone, it is important to understand how PIR compares to the more accurate estimation of the lethality zones for different diameters and operating pressures. In previous internal studies, it was found that PIR, when compared to the more detailed measures of the 1% lethality zone, could be highly conservative. This conservatism could be beneficial from a safety perspective, however it is adding additional costs and reducing the efficiency of the integrity management process. Therefore, the goal of this study is to determine when PIR is overly conservative and to determine a way to address this conservatism. In order to assess its accuracy, PIR was compared to a more accurate measure of the 1% lethality zone, calculated by PIPESAFE, for a range of different operating pressures and line diameters. Upon comparison of the distances calculated through the application of PIR and PIPESAFE, it was observed that for large diameters pipelines the distances calculated by PIR are slightly conservative, and that this conservativeness increases exponentially for smaller diameter lines. The explanation for the conservatism of the PIR for small diameter pipelines is the higher wall friction forces per volume transported in smaller diameter lines. When these higher friction forces are not accounted for it leads to overestimation of the effective outflow rate (a product of the initial flow rate and the decay factor) which subsequently leads to the overestimation of the impact radius. Since the effective outflow rate is a function of both line pressure and diameter, a simple relationship is proposed to make the decay factor a function of these two variables to correct the excess conservatism for small diameter pipelines.

Development of X80M Line Pipe Steel for Spiral Welded Pipes With Low Temperature Toughness and Excellent Weldability

The unique combination of high strength and low temperature toughness on heavy wall thickness coils allows higher operating pressures in large diameter spiral welded pipes and could represent a 10% reduction in life cycle cost on long distance gas pipe lines. One of the current processing routes for these high thickness grades is the thermo-mechanical controlled processing (TMCP) route, which critically depends on the austenite conditioning during hot forming at specific temperature in relation to the aimed metallurgical mechanisms (recrystallization, strain accumulation, phase transformation). Detailed mechanical and microstructural characterization on selected coils and pipes corresponding to the X80M grade in 24 mm thickness reveals that effective grain size and distribution together with the through thickness gradient are key parameters to control in order to ensure the adequate toughness of the material. Studies on the softening behavior revealed that the grain coarsening in the mid-thickness is related to a decrease of strain accumulation during hot rolling. It was also observed a toughness detrimental effect with the increment of the volume fraction of M/A (martensite/retained austenite) in the middle thickness of the coils, related to the cooling practice. Finally, submerged arc weldability for spiral welded pipe manufacturing was evaluated on coil skelp in 24 mm thickness. The investigations revealed the suitability of the material for spiral welded pipe production, preserving the tensile properties and maintaining acceptable toughness values in the heat-affected zone. The present study revealed that the adequate chemical alloying selection and processing control provide enhanced low temperature toughness on pipes with excellent weldability formed from hot rolled coils X80 grade in 24 mm thickness produced at ArcelorMittal Bremen.

Development of X90 and X100 Steel Grades for Seamless Linepipe Products

The general trend in oil and gas industry gives a clear direction towards the need for high strength grades up to X100. The exploration in extreme regions and under severe conditions, e.g. in ultra deep water regions also considering High Temperature/High Pressure Fields or arctic areas, becomes more and more important with respect to the still growing demand of the world for natural resources. Further, the application of high strength materials enables the possibility of structure weight reduction which benefits to materials and cost reduction and increase of efficiency in the pipe line installation process. To address these topics, the development of such high strength steel grades with optimum combination of high tensile properties, excellent toughness properties and sour service resistivity for seamless quenched and tempered pipes are in the focus of the materials development and improvement of Vallourec. This paper will present the efforts put into the materials development for line pipe applications up to grade X100 for seamless pipes manufactured by Pilger Mill. The steel concept developed by Vallourec over the last years [1,2] was modified and adapted according to the technical requirements of the Pilger rolling process. Pipes with OD≥20″ and wall thickness up to 30 mm were rolled and subsequent quenched and tempered. The supportive application of thermodynamic and kinetic simulation techniques as additional tool for the material development was used. Results of mechanical characterization by tensile and toughness testing, as well as microstructure examination by light-optical microscopy will be shown. Advanced investigation techniques as scanning electron microcopy and electron backscatter diffraction are applied to characterize the pipe material up to the crystallographic level. The presented results will demonstrate not only the effect of a well-balanced alloying concept appointing micro-alloying, but also the high sophisticated and precise thermal treatment of these pipe products. The presented alloying concept enables the production grade X90 to X100 with wall thickness up to 30 mm and is further extending the product portfolio of Vallourec for riser systems for deepwater and ultra-deep water application [1, 3, 4].

Markovian Analysis of Aging Distributed Systems Remaining Life

Correct assessment of the remaining life of distributed systems such as pipeline systems (PS) with defects plays a crucial role in solving the problem of their integrity. Authors propose a methodology which allows estimating the random residual time (remaining life) of transition of a PS from its current state to a critical or limit state, based on available information on the sizes of the set of growing defects found during an in line inspection (ILI), followed by verification or direct assessment. PS with many actively growing defects is a physical distributed system, which transits from one physical state to another. This transition finally leads to failure of its components, each component being a defect. Such process can be described by a Markov process. The degradation of the PS (measured as monotonous deterioration of its failure pressure Pf (t)) is considered as a non-homogeneous pure death Markov process (NPDMP) of the continuous time and discrete states type. Failure pressure is calculated using one of the internationally recognized pipeline design codes: B13G, B31Gmod, DNV, Battelle and Shell-92. The NPDMP is described by a system of non-homogeneous differential equations, which allows calculating the probability of defects failure pressure being in each of its possible states. On the basis of these probabilities the gamma-percent residual life of defects is calculated. In other words, the moment of time tγ is calculated, which is a random variable, when the failure pressure of pipeline defect Pf (tγ) > Pop, with probability γ, where Pop is the operating pressure. The developed methodology was successfully applied to a real life case, which is presented and discussed.

Recent Development of HFW Linepipe With a High-Quality Weld Seam Suitable for Sour Service Environments

Based on the appreciable progress being made in quality control and assurance technology for the electric resistance welding process, the number of applications for high-frequency electric resistance welded (HFW) linepipe in highly demanding, severe environments, such as offshore and sour environments, has gradually increased. Resistance to hydrogen-induced cracking (HIC) is the most important property for a linepipe to possess for use in sour environments. However, resistance to HIC, especially along the longitudinal weld seam, has not yet been fully related to metallurgical factors. In this study, to clarify the effects of inclusions on the sour resistance properties of X60- to X70-grade steels, their resistances to HIC were numerically simulated. For the simulation, the steels were assumed to have a yield strength of 562 MPa and a tensile strength of 644 MPa. To estimate the effect of nonmetallic inclusions, a virtual inclusion was situated at the center of a 10-mm-thick HIC test specimen. Tests were performed using NACE test solution A. The crack propagation rate was calculated as a function of the content of diffusible hydrogen, the diameter of the inclusion, and the fracture toughness of the matrix after hydrogen absorption. In the propagation calculation, the resistance to chemical reactions at the interface of the inclusion matrix was also considered to be a delaying factor. By assuming a resistance to chemical reactions at the interface, the crack propagation rate could be fitted to the actual HIC propagation rate. Based on the numerical simulation results, HFW linepipe with a high-quality weld seam was developed. Controlling the morphologies and distributions of oxides generated during the welding process is the key factor for improving the resistance to HIC. Using a combination of optimized chemical composition, microstructure and oxide content, the weld seam of the developed X70-grade HFW steel pipe showed excellent resistance to HIC.

Bulging Factor for Axial Surface Cracks in Pipes

The bulging factor for an external constant-depth axial surface crack in a pipe was calculated by 3D FE simulations. This was done in a manner consistent with Folias’s original work for the axial through-wall-cracked pipe bulging factor (MT), but was evaluated in the elastic to full-plastic conditions. The results demonstrated that the actual surface-cracked pipe bulging factor is considerably lower than the bulging factor empirically derived by Maxey/Kiefner (Mp) back in the 1970s. Based on the results of the present study, it is suggested that Mp function in the Ln-Secant equation is not truly a bulging factor for axial surface crack. Rather it is an empirically developed equation with many correction factors embedded in it to apply the Dugdale model for prediction of maximum pressure of axial surface-cracked pipes. However, due to this empiricism, this method becomes invalid (or overly conservative) when it is applied in predicting the crack-driving force using the J-based Ln-Secant equation.

A New Approach Using EBSD to Quantitatively Distinguish Complex Transformation Products Along the HAZ in X80 Linepipe Steel

State-of-the-art linepipe steels are microalloyed low-carbon steels that combine high strength and fracture toughness with good weldability. During welding of pipe sections the heat affected zone (HAZ) experiences rapid thermal cycles resulting in a graded microstructure that can be significantly different from that of the base metal. In particular a variety of bainitic microstructures can form in the HAZ. Depending on the type of bainite mechanical properties may be improved or may lead to poor fracture resistance and be detrimental to the overall HAZ performance. Optical microscopy is not sufficient to differentiate bainitic morphologies which vary with the transformation temperature. The investigated X80 linepipe steel also contains retained austenite at room temperature. Based on the retained austenite it is possible to characterize the orientation relationship (OR) between austenite and the transformation products. It is found that bainite shows an orientation relationship near Kurdjumov-Sachs with the prior austenite. Variant selection is related to the driving force for the bainite reaction and hence depends on the transformation temperature. In the current study Electron BackScatter Diffraction (EBSD) mapping is used to characterize transformation products based on their orientation relationship. This approach offers a quantitative way to determine volume fractions of different types of bainite in complex HAZ microstructures which is necessary to establish structure-property relationships of the HAZ.

Reducing Human Error Using a Human Factors Life Cycle Approach

Reduction of human error can have a significant impact on the potential for spills and leaks and translate into better safety performance and financial gains for an organization. As important as the technical components of a design, construction, operation, and maintenance program is the human component of the activities being performed. In the Pipeline Industry, human factors can create the potential for a human error at many points along the life cycle of a pipeline. Using a life cycle approach to manage human factors can provide an organization the capability to integrate human factors into programs, standards, procedures and processes using a disciplined approach. This paper reviews the life cycle of a pipeline and identifies areas where the potential for human error can have catastrophic results. Guidance is provided on the development of a human factors life cycle for the organization and illustrates available industry resources as well as opportunities for further research and development.

The Essential Welding Variable Approach and its Application to the Welding of X80 Line Pipe Steels

A weld quality control approach developed for the welding of high-strength pipeline steels has demonstrated its effectiveness in achieving reliability and consistency in the mechanical performance of girth welds. Using a predictive tool that can relate cooling times of welding thermal cycles with welding parameters and with the knowledge of microstructure responses of both pipe materials and weld metals to welding thermal cycles, the approach can evaluate the effects of welding parameters on weld properties and identify the essential welding variables. As a result, the essential welding variable approach can be used to optimize and help shorten the process of welding procedure development. The current paper presents the application of the essential welding variable approach to the girth welding of X80 pipeline steels. The application started with the selection of pipe materials, welding consumables, and candidate welding procedures. The selection of actual weld procedures and a welding matrix were made after the candidate welding procedures were analyzed in terms of cooling times. Girth welds for two X80 pipes of different chemical compositions, outside diameters, and wall thicknesses were made with single and dual torch GMAW-P processes and a range of welding consumables. The welding parameters were monitored and recorded for all welds; and the thermal cycles of selected welds were measured by thermocouples. Small-scale testing, including all-weld-metal tensile test, Charpy impact toughness and CTOD fracture toughness tests, were evaluated and correlated with microstructures formed in the HAZ of the girth welds. The material responses of heat-affected zone (HAZ) to thermal cycles of typical GMAW-P single and dual torch processes were experimentally simulated (Gleeble®). Detailed welding thermal cycle analyses were conducted based on the measured welding parameters. Cooling times of welding thermal cycles for the girth welds were calculated and correlated with the material responses, of X80 pipe steels to welding thermal cycles. The correlation demonstrated very good consistency between the cooling times, the results of the Gleeble simulation, and the mechanical properties of the girth welds. The dependency of the weld properties on welding parameters was analyzed in terms of cooling times, and the optimization strategy for development of welding procedures that offer more balanced welding properties between strength and toughness was evaluated by adjusting the essential welding variables. In summary, the process of applying the essential welding variable approach and the results from the tests and the analyses showed that the approach is capable of evaluating the effects of welding parameters on weld properties, identifying the essential welding variables, and ultimately optimizing welding procedures.

Brittle Fracture Arrest in High Charpy Energy Steels: Comparisons With Some Existing Data

Current line-pipe steels have significantly higher Charpy upper-shelf energy than older steels. Many newer line-pipe steels have Charpy upper-shelf energy in the 300 to 500J range, while older line-pipe steels (pre-1970) had values between 30 and 60J. With this increased Charpy energy comes two different and important aspects of how to predict the brittle fracture arrestability for these new line-pipe steels. The first aspect of concern is that the very high Charpy energy in modern line-pipe steels frequently produces invalid results in the standard pressed-notch DWTT specimen. Various modified DWTT specimens have been used in an attempt to address the deficiencies seen in the PN-DWTT procedure. In examining fracture surfaces of various modified DWTT samples, it has been found that using the steady-state fracture regions with similitude to pipe burst test (regions with constant shear lips) rather than the entire API fracture area, results collapse to one shear area versus temperature curve for all the various DWTT specimens tested. Results for several different materials will be shown. The difficulty with this fracture surface evaluation is that frequently the standard pressed-notch DWTT only gives valid transitional fracture data up to about 20-percent shear area, and then suddenly goes to 100-percent shear area. The second aspect is that with the much higher Charpy energy, the pipe does not need as much shear area to arrest a brittle fracture. Some analyses of past pipe burst tests have been recently shown and some additional cases will be presented. This new brittle fracture arrest criterion means that one does not necessarily have to specify 85-percent shear area in the DWTT all the time, but the shear area needed for brittle fracture arrest depends on the pipeline design conditions (diameter, hoop stress) and the Charpy upper-shelf energy of the steel. Sensitivity studies and examples will be shown.