Banking and Other Private Sector Influences on Monetary Policy

1993 ◽  
pp. 251-284
Author(s):  
Thomas Havrilesky
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Private Sector

scholarly journals Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates

2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (10) ◽  
pp. 3154-3185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric T. Swanson ◽  
John C. Williams
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Models ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy ◽  
Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy

According to standard macroeconomic models, the zero lower bound greatly reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy and increases the efficacy of fiscal policy. However, private-sector decisions depend on the entire path of expected future short-term interest rates, not just the current short-term rate. Put differently, longer-term yields matter. We show how to measure the zero bound's effects on yields of any maturity. Indeed, 1- and 2-year Treasury yields were surprisingly unconstrained throughout 2008 to 2010, suggesting that monetary and fiscal policy were about as effective as usual during this period. Only beginning in late 2011 did these yields become more constrained. (JEL E43, E52, E62)

scholarly journals MONETARY POLICY, HOUSING BOOMS, AND FINANCIAL (IM)BALANCES

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 830-860 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandra Eickmeier ◽  
Boris Hofmann
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This paper applies a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model to U.S. data with the aim of analyzing monetary transmission via private sector balance sheets, credit risk spreads, and house prices and of exploring the role of monetary policy in the housing and credit boom prior to the global financial crisis. We find that monetary policy shocks have a persistent effect on house prices, real estate wealth, and private sector debt and a strong short-lived effect on risk spreads in money and mortgage markets. Moreover, the results suggest that monetary policy contributed considerably to the unsustainable precrisis developments in housing and credit markets. Although monetary policy shocks contributed discernibly at a late stage of the boom, feedback effects of other (macroeconomic and financial) shocks via lower policy rates kicked in earlier and appear to have been considerable.

scholarly journals Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy with Near-Rational Expectations

2010 ◽  
Vol 100 (1) ◽  
pp. 274-303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Woodford
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Optimal Policy ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Stabilization Policy ◽  
Optimal Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Target ◽  
Model Consistency ◽  
Long Run

The paper considers optimal monetary stabilization policy in a forward-looking model, when the central bank recognizes that private sector expectations need not be precisely model-consistent, and wishes to choose a policy that will be as good as possible in the case of any beliefs that are close enough to model-consistency. It is found that commitment continues to be important for optimal policy, that the optimal long-run inflation target is unaffected by the degree of potential distortion of beliefs, and that optimal policy is even more history-dependent than if rational expectations are assumed. (JEL C62, D84, E13, E31, E32, E52)

scholarly journals The Power of Narratives in Economic Forecasts

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (001r1) ◽  
pp. 1-58
Author(s):  
Steven A. Sharpe ◽  
◽  
Nitish R. Sinha ◽  
Christopher A. Hollrah ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Quantile Regressions ◽  
Incremental Information ◽  
Economic Forecasts

The sentiment, or “Tonality”, extracted from the narratives that accompany Federal Reserve economic forecasts is strongly correlated with future economic performance, positively with GDP and negatively with unemployment and inflation. Moreover, Tonality conveys incremental information in that it predicts errors in both Federal Reserve and private-sector forecasts of GDP, unemployment, and monetary policy up to four quarters out. Tonality similarly predicts stock returns. Tonality is most informative when uncertainty is high and point forecasts predict subpar growth. Quantile regressions indicate that much of Tonality’s forecasting power arises from its signal of downside risks to economic performance and stock returns.

China’s monetary policy will rely on banks’ compliance

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Private Firms ◽  
Content Type

Significance China’s GDP growth slowed to 6.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2018, with full-year growth at 6.6%. The PBoC is loosening monetary policy to support growth by lowering banks’ RRR alongside policies to incentivise banks to lend more to the private sector. Impacts If the policy fails and leverage increases relative to GDP, then risk in the financial system will rise. If RRR cuts cause consumption to increase, China’s trade surpluses are likely to decrease, helping ease trade tensions with Washington. Liberalising interest rates will, when it eventually happens, allow banks to price loans to private firms more accurately.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy for a Bubbly World

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Asriyan ◽  
Luca Fornaro ◽  
Alberto Martin ◽  
Jaume Ventura
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Frictions ◽  
Optimal Monetary Policy ◽  
Future Value ◽  
Money Creation ◽  
The Creation

Abstract What is the role of monetary policy in a bubbly world? To address this question, we study an economy in which financial frictions limit the supply of assets. The ensuing scarcity generates a demand for “unbacked” assets, i.e., assets that are backed only by the expectation of their future value. We consider two types of unbacked assets: bubbles, which are created by the private sector, and money, which is created by the central bank. Bubbles and money share many features, but they also differ in two crucial respects. First, while the rents from the creation of bubbles accrue to entrepreneurs and foster investment, the rents from money creation accrue to the central bank. Second, while bubbles are driven by market psychology, and can rise and fall according to the whims of the market, money is under the control of the central bank. We characterize the optimal monetary policy and show that, through its ability to supply assets, monetary policy plays a key role in the bubbly world. The model sheds light on the recent expansion of central bank liabilities in response to the bursting of bubbles.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy and Nigeria’s Economy: An Impact Investigation

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 218
Author(s):  
Micheal Chidiebere Ekwe ◽  
Amah Kalu Ogbonnaya ◽  
Cordelia Onyinyechi Omodero
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Major Objective ◽  
Lending Rate ◽  
The Impact

The major objective of this study is to empirically analyze the impact of monetary policy on the economy of Nigeria. To achieve this major objective, the study made use of broad money supply (M2) and credit to the private sector (CPS) as the independent variables explaining the dependent variable which is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The time series data employed cover the period of 1996 to 2016 and have been collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The statistical tool used in this study is the multi regression and student t-test with the aid of statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) to analyze the impact of the individual explanatory variables on the economy. The result indicates that the monetary policy in Nigeria does not have significant impact on the economy. At 5% level of significance, the broad money supply (M2) is 0.36 > 0.05 while the CPS shows 0.22 > 0.05. The result proves that the broad money supply has not been properly regulated and the bank lending rate to the private sectors so high that the economy has been adversely affected. The study therefore, recommends that the Central Bank of Nigeria should put every machinery in place to ensure that the monetary policy is geared towards economic growth through substantial reduction of bank lending rate to the private sector and proper regulation of broad money supply.

LEARNABILITY OF E–STABLE EQUILIBRIA

2013 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 959-984 ◽  
Author(s):  
Atanas Christev ◽  
Sergey Slobodyan
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Recursive Least Squares ◽  
Stability Conditions ◽  
Speed Of Convergence ◽  
Robust Learning ◽  
Stable Equilibria

If private sector agents update their beliefs with a learning algorithm other than recursive least squares, expectational stability or learnability of rational expectations equilibria (REE) is not guaranteed. Monetary policy under commitment, with a determinate and E-stable REE, may not imply robust learning stability of such equilibria if the RLS speed of convergence is slow. In this paper, we propose a refinement of E-stability conditions that allows us to select equilibria more robust to specification of the learning algorithm within the RLS/SG/GSG class. E-stable equilibria characterized by faster speed of convergence under RLS learning are learnable with SG or generalized SG algorithms as well.

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