China’s monetary policy will rely on banks’ compliance

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Private Firms ◽  
Content Type

Significance China’s GDP growth slowed to 6.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2018, with full-year growth at 6.6%. The PBoC is loosening monetary policy to support growth by lowering banks’ RRR alongside policies to incentivise banks to lend more to the private sector. Impacts If the policy fails and leverage increases relative to GDP, then risk in the financial system will rise. If RRR cuts cause consumption to increase, China’s trade surpluses are likely to decrease, helping ease trade tensions with Washington. Liberalising interest rates will, when it eventually happens, allow banks to price loans to private firms more accurately.

Hungarian economy will face post-election challenges

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Regional Economies ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Levels

Subject The next government's economic prospects. Significance If, as is likely, the Fidesz party wins a third term in office in April, it will look to capitalise upon the upturn in GDP growth in 2017. After stronger-than-expected growth acceleration in the fourth quarter, which is likely to have closed Hungary's output gap, Fidesz may favour loose fiscal and monetary policies to support the economy after the election. Impacts The central bank is expected to hold interest rates at historically low levels well into 2019. GDP is likely to grow as fast in 2018 as in 2017, as Hungary consolidates its position as one of the fastest-growing regional economies. If Fidesz keeps fiscal and monetary policies loose for longer than expected next year, larger budget deficits are likely.

scholarly journals South Africa’s economic response to monetary policy uncertainty

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 282-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Balcilar ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Charl Jooste
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Central Bankers

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of monetary policy uncertainty and its impact on the South African economy. Design/methodology/approach The authors use a sign restricted SVAR with an endogenous feedback of stochastic volatility to evaluate the sign and size of uncertainty shocks. The authors use a nonlinear DSGE model to gain deeper insights about the transmission mechanism of monetary policy uncertainty. Findings The authors show that monetary policy volatility is high and constant. Both inflation and interest rates decline in response to uncertainty. Output rebounds quickly after a contemporaneous decrease. The DSGE model shows that the size of the uncertainty shock matters – high uncertainty can lead to a severe contraction in output, inflation and interest rates. Research limitations/implications The authors model only a few variables in the SVAR – thus missing perhaps other possible channels of shock transmission. Practical implications There is a lesson for monetary policy: monetary policy uncertainty, in isolation from general macroeconomic uncertainty, often creates unintended adverse consequences and can perpetuate a weak economic environment. The tasks of central bankers are incredibly difficult. Their models project output and inflation with relatively large uncertainty based on many shocks emanating from various sources. It matters how central bankers react to these expectations and how they communicate the underlying risks associated with setting interest rates. Originality/value This is the first study that looks into monetary policy uncertainty into South Africa using a stochastic volatility model and a nonlinear DSGE model. The results should be very useful for the Central Bank as it highlights how uncertainty, that they create, can have adverse economic consequences.

Sukuk and monetary policy transmission in Indonesia: the role of asset price and exchange rate channels

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Suriani Suriani ◽  
M. Shabri Abd. Majid ◽  
Raja Masbar ◽  
Nazaruddin A. Wahid ◽  
Abdul Ghafar Ismail
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Monetary Policy Transmission ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Transmission ◽  
Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism

Purpose The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze the role of sukuk in the monetary policy transmission mechanism through the asset price and exchange rate channels in the Indonesian economy. Design/methodology/approach Using the monthly data from January 2003 to November 2017, this study uses a multivariate vector error correction model causality framework. To examine the role of sukuk in the monetary policy transmission mechanism through the asset price channel, this study uses the variables of consumption, inflation, interest rates, economic growth and the composite stock price index. Meanwhile, to examine the role of sukuk in the monetary policy transmission mechanism through the exchange rate channel, this study used variables of inflation, interest rates, economic growth, foreign investment and exchange rate. Findings This study documented that sukuk has no causal relationship with inflation through asset price and exchange rate channels. Nevertheless, sukuk has a bidirectional causal relationship with economic growth through asset price and exchange rate channels. Sukuk is also documented to have a causal relationship with monetary policy variables of interest rate and stock prices through asset price and exchange rate channels. Finally, a unidirectional causality is recorded running from the exchange rate to sukuk in the exchange rate channel. Research limitations/implications The finding of independence of the sukuk market from interest rates provides evidence that the trading of the sukuk in Indonesia has been in harmony with the Islamic tenets. Practical implications The relevant Indonesian authorities need to enhance both domestic and global sukuk markets as part of efforts to promote the sustainability of Islamic capital market development in Indonesia. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is among the first attempts to empirically investigate the role of sukuk in monetary policy transmission through asset price and exchange rate channels in the context of the Indonesian economy.

scholarly journals Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates

2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (10) ◽  
pp. 3154-3185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric T. Swanson ◽  
John C. Williams
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Models ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy ◽  
Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy

According to standard macroeconomic models, the zero lower bound greatly reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy and increases the efficacy of fiscal policy. However, private-sector decisions depend on the entire path of expected future short-term interest rates, not just the current short-term rate. Put differently, longer-term yields matter. We show how to measure the zero bound's effects on yields of any maturity. Indeed, 1- and 2-year Treasury yields were surprisingly unconstrained throughout 2008 to 2010, suggesting that monetary and fiscal policy were about as effective as usual during this period. Only beginning in late 2011 did these yields become more constrained. (JEL E43, E52, E62)

Central bank transparency, inflation targeting and monetary policy: a panel data approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 1159-1174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Caldas Montes ◽  
Cristiane Gea
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Bank Transparency ◽  
Policy Interest

Purpose The evidence concerning the effects of the inflation targeting (IT) regime as well as greater central bank transparency on monetary policy interest rates is not conclusive, and the following questions remain open. What is the effect of adopting IT on both the level and volatility of monetary policy interest rate? Does central bank transparency affect the level of the monetary policy interest rate and its volatility? Are these effects greater in developing countries? The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the literature by answering these questions. Hence, the paper analyzes the effects of IT and central bank transparency on monetary policy. Design/methodology/approach The analysis uses a sample of 48 countries (31 developing) comprising the period between 1998 and 2014. Based on panel data methodology, estimates are made for the full sample, and then for the sample of developing countries. Findings Countries that adopt the IT regime tend to have lower levels of monetary policy interest rates, as well as lower interest rate volatility. The effect of adopting IT on both the level and volatility of the basic interest rate is smaller in developing countries. Besides, countries with more transparent central banks have lower levels of monetary policy interest rates, as well as lower interest rate volatility. In turn, the effect of central bank transparency on both the level and volatility of the basic interest rate is greater in developing countries. Practical implications The study brings important practical implications regarding the influence of both the IT regime and central bank transparency on monetary policy. Originality/value Studies have sought to analyze whether IT and central bank transparency are effective to control inflation. However, few studies analyze the influence of IT and central bank transparency on interest rates. This study differs from the few existing studies since: the analysis is done not only for the effect of transparency on the level of the monetary policy interest rate, but also on its volatility; the central bank transparency index that is used has never been utilized in this sort of analysis; and the study uses panel data methodology, and compares the results between different samples.

Symmetric and asymmetric adjustment of bank deposit interest rates: empirical evidence from Kenya

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Moses Nzuki Nyangu ◽  
Freshia Wangari Waweru ◽  
Nyankomo Marwa
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Asymmetric Adjustment ◽  
Deposit Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Adjustment Speed ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pass Through

PurposeThis paper examines the sluggish adjustment of deposit interest rate categories with response to policy rate changes in a developing economy.Design/methodology/approachSymmetric and asymmetric error correction models (ECMs) are employed to test the pass-through effect and adjustment speed of deposit rates when above or below their equilibrium levels.FindingsThe findings reveal an incomplete pass-through effect in both the short run and long run while mixed results of symmetric and asymmetric adjustment speed across the different deposit rate categories are observed. Collusive pricing arrangement behavior is supported by deposit rate categories that adjust more rigidly upwards than downwards, while negative customer reaction behavior is supported by deposit rate categories that adjust more rigidly downwards than upwards.Practical implicationsEven though the findings indicate an aspect of increased responsiveness over the period, the sluggish adjustment of deposit rates imply that monetary policy is still ineffective and not uniform across the different deposit rate categories.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to empirically examine both symmetric and asymmetric adjustment behavior of deposit interest rate categories in Kenya. The findings are key to policy makers as they provide insights on how long it takes to adjust different deposit rate categories to monetary policy decisions. In addition, the behavior of deposit rates partly explains why interest rates capping was imposed in Kenya in 2016.

Large US household balance sheets pose macro risks

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Health Costs ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Lower Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Trade Growth ◽  
Productivity Gains ◽  
Macroeconomic Risks

Significance An examination of the factors behind the expansion indicates that outsized balance sheets will persist and will pose a number of macroeconomic risks. Impacts Slower workforce growth will pressure GDP growth, trade growth and long-term interest rates, unless productivity gains can offset this. A record number of US business deaths and births in 2020 will affect productivity and have unpredictable impacts on the economy. Lower growth makes it harder to stabilise debt-to-GDP ratios, just as pension and health costs rise as populations age in major economies.

The relationship between financial development and effectiveness of monetary policy: new evidence from ASEAN-3 countries

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zulkefly Abdul Karim ◽  
Danie Eirieswanty Kamal Basa ◽  
Bakri Abdul Karim
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Financial System ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the relationship between financial development (FD) and monetary policy effectiveness (MPE) on output and inflation in ASEAN-3 countries (Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines). Design/methodology/approach This study uses an open economy structural vector autoregressive model to generate MPE. Then, an autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) model is used to analyze the effect of FD on MPE across countries. Findings The findings revealed that FD plays a different role in MPE across countries. In Malaysia, a more developed financial system tends to reduce the MPE on output, whereas in Singapore, results show that the more developed financial system (stock market capitalization) tends to increase MPE on output. However, in the Philippines, the main results show that the effect of FD (liquid liabilities) upon MPE on output is depending on the policy variable (interest rates or money supply). Originality/value This paper fills this gap by providing the first study of ASEAN-3 countries in examining how effective is a monetary policy in response to the development of the financial market across the country. Second, this paper considers two FD indicators, namely, the banking sector and capital market development in investigating its effect on MPE on output and inflation. Third, the authors construct the MPE in each country using a structural (identified) VAR model by aggregating the response of output growth and inflation rate on monetary policy changes (interest rate and money supply) using impulse–response function. Regarding this, the results of this study provide new empirical evidence and insight into the long debate on the relationship between FD and the MPE.

US unconventional monetary policy and Islamic equity indices

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 575-590 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sayyed Mahdi Ziaei
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Term Spread ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Policy Shocks

Purpose This paper aims to constitute to the first empirical work that investigated the effects of US unconventional monetary policy shocks on Islamic equities. Design/methodology/approach The authors used the spread between sovereign (term spread) and corporate (corporate spread) yields as proxies of unconventional monetary policy in times that FED implemented different rounds of large-scale asset purchasing programs. Findings This paper demonstrates that monetary policy shocks have significant effects on Islamic equities. The analysis showed substantial evidence that the corporate spread innovation was reflected as a positive signal in Islamic equity markets and has a larger impact on Islamic low leverage equities than term spread. Originality/value The objective of this paper is to shed some insight into the effects of US unconventional monetary policy on low leverage financial assets. It is hypothesized that during this period, specifically from November 2008, unconventional monetary policy and zero bound interest rates have been implemented in the US economy. However, the strength of effects of this range of policies on Islamic financial products is unidentified.

Monetary policy, bank leverage and liquidity

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Van Dan Dang ◽  
Khac Quoc Bao Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Monetary Shocks ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Financial Leverage ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Funding Sources ◽  
Dynamic Panels ◽  
Asset Portfolio ◽  
Policy Bank

PurposeThe study explores how banks design their financial structure and asset portfolio in response to monetary policy changes.Design/methodology/approachThe authors conduct the research design for the Vietnamese banking market during 2007–2018. To ensure robust findings, the authors employ two econometric models of static and dynamic panels, multiple monetary policy indicators and alternative measures of bank leverage and liquidity.FindingsBanks respond to monetary expansion by raising their financial leverage on the liability side and cutting their liquidity positions on the asset side. Further analysis suggests that larger banks' financial leverage is more responsive to monetary policy changes, while smaller banks strengthen the potency of monetary policy transmission toward bank liquidity. Additionally, the authors document that lower interest rates induce a beneficial effect on the net stable funding ratio (NSFR) under Basel III guidelines, implying that banks appear to modify the composition of liabilities to improve the stability of funding sources.Originality/valueThe study is the first attempt to simultaneously examine the impacts of monetary policy on both sides of bank balance sheets, across various banks of different sizes under a multiple-tool monetary regime. Besides, understanding how banks organize their stable funding sources and illiquid assets amid monetary shocks is an innovation of this study.

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