Structure Evolvement and Equilibrium Analysis of International Credit Rating Market

Author(s):  
Huang Xuewei ◽  
Wang Jianling

Significance Meanwhile, the Office Cherifien des Phosphates (OCP), Morocco’s government-controlled phosphate company, has started production in a new fertiliser unit at its main processing and export centre in Jorf Lasfar, on the Atlantic coast. Morocco’s traditional phosphate industry has been eclipsed in recent years by the rapid development of new sectors such as the automotive and aeronautical industries, which are similarly oriented towards exports. Impacts OCP’s fertiliser production capacity will increase by 50% during 2018, boosting the value added to its phosphate mining activities. Increased volumes of exports of phosphates and fertilisers will counterbalance the impact of relatively low international prices. Once the new cycle of investment is complete, OCP will be in a position to pay back tax credits it has received from the government. Repayment of tax credits would boost OCP's international credit rating.


Subject Malaysia under Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. Significance The new Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition led by Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has sought to reform drastically the country’s politics. Its focus on tackling corruption has included pursuing former Prime Minister Najib Razak over the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal; Najib denies all charges against him. Impacts The government will allow global investigations into 1MDB funds to accelerate. A substantially higher debt-to-GDP ratio (80%), as per new calculations, will increase the cost of future borrowing. Economic confidence-building measures will secure Malaysia’s international credit rating. Contractual penalties may force the government to delay rather than cancel infrastructure deals with Singapore and China.


2018 ◽  
Vol 50 (4) ◽  
pp. 1381-1403 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle Hanniman

AbstractMany fiscal federal scholars argue, often implicitly, that transfer dependence generally bolsters subnational creditworthiness by signalling a higher likelihood of national bailouts for distressed governments. This article argues that dependence fails to bestow general benefits on local borrowers because it suggests an inability to generate additional revenues in the event of fiscal distress, and because this inability does not, contrary to the expectations of many, necessarily translate into higher bailout expectations. Ultimately it is the nature, not the level, of transfers that affects local creditworthiness, whether through bailout or non-bailout channels. Stable and predictable payments, including robust equalization systems, support local creditworthiness, while volatile and unpredictable transfers do not. The article supports these arguments with a review of documents issued by the major international credit rating agencies and cross-national statistical analyses of bailout probabilities and standalone credit ratings issued by Moody’s Investors Service. It also discusses the implications of the findings for work on the fiscal discipline of subnational governments.


1998 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 35-50
Author(s):  
Bakul H Dholakia

The East Asian crisis occurred despite highly impressive macroeconomic performance and prudent fiscal policies pursued by the severely affected countries which enjoyed excellent international credit rating till June 1997. The crisis came as a rude shock to the international financial community and the policy-makers on account of its unprecedented magnitude and global impact. In this paper, Bakul Dholakia argues that the crisis resulted from a strong combination of mutually reinforcing factors such as appreciation of real exchange rates, high levels of current account deficit, extremely high growth of short-term external debt⁄ and highly fragile financial sector. According to Dholakia⁄ the overall impact of East Asian financial crisis on the Indian economy can be described as moderate. The slow-down of India's industrial growth and exports and fall in the stock market since the last quarter of 1997 can be attributed more to the climate of political uncertainty than the East Asian crisis. Given the favourable macroeconomic fundamentals⁄ Indian economy currently does not face any threat arising from the Asian virus.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 7-29
Author(s):  
Jiejin Zhu ◽  
◽  
Xinyu Hu ◽  

During its first five years of operation, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is becoming more and more similar to traditional Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) in terms of operational goals, business area, and environmental and social standards. Why has the AIIB, the newest type of multilateral development bank (MDB) initiated by an emerging economy, undergone institutional isomorphism? Based on the socialization theory, this paper argues that the institutional environment in which the AIIB is operating has a strong influence on AIIB’s institution-building, mainly through the coercive, mimetic, and normative institutional isomorphic processes. On coercion, the pressures from European donors, international credit rating agencies, and global civil society have resulted in the AIIB’s institutional isomorphism. On mimicking, the social uncertainty of the relationship between the AIIB and the Belt and Road Initiative and the technical uncertainty of infrastructure projects have triggered the AIIB’s institutional isomorphism. On normativeness, the similar educational backgrounds and working experience of the AIIB’s staff and active interactions among the MDB family members have caused the AIIB’s institutional isomorphism. The paper concludes that the international institutional environment might hamper emerging economies’ capabilities of institutional innovation.


Significance The delayed ratification of Pedro Francke as finance minister was designed to calm concerns. Castillo’s agenda, outlined in his Independence Day speech to Congress, sought to blend the demands of his party with a programme that seeks to appease the private sector. Lacking a majority in Congress, Castillo will have difficulty in legislating. Impacts Cabinet splits may soon emerge, further testing Castillo’s leadership skills. Peru’s international credit rating may suffer if Castillo abandons economic orthodoxy. Castillo’s ability to honour promises to vaccinate 70% of the population by year-end will be a metric of initial success. International support for the new government may prove fleeting if foreign investments are endangered.


Author(s):  
Rituparna Das

The rating agency Standard and Poor's recently warned that India could become the first of the BRIC economies to lose its investment-grade status because of the slowing down of growth prospect in the face of bad loans. Against the backdrop of the loan defaults in the real estate and infrastructure sectors leading to the slackening of economic growth, which caused downgradation of India's international credit rating, this chapter aims to inquire into the modus operandi of credit rating by banks and rating agencies, the impact of economic downturn on the behaviors of borrowers as well as lenders, mode of calculation of default probability, and the unaddressed needs of academic and professional research.


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