The North East in the Twenty-First Century: New Realities?

2021 ◽  
pp. 179-216
Author(s):  
James Leggott
Keyword(s):  
First Century ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Twenty First Century

scholarly journals Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in CMIP5 Models: RCP and Historical Simulations

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (18) ◽  
pp. 7187-7197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Cheng ◽  
John C. H. Chiang ◽  
Dongxiao Zhang
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
First Century ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
The North ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) simulated by 10 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for the historical (1850–2005) and future climate is examined. The historical simulations of the AMOC mean state are more closely matched to observations than those of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Similarly to CMIP3, all models predict a weakening of the AMOC in the twenty-first century, though the degree of weakening varies considerably among the models. Under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario, the weakening by year 2100 is 5%–40% of the individual model's historical mean state; under RCP8.5, the weakening increases to 15%–60% over the same period. RCP4.5 leads to the stabilization of the AMOC in the second half of the twenty-first century and a slower (then weakening rate) but steady recovery thereafter, while RCP8.5 gives rise to a continuous weakening of the AMOC throughout the twenty-first century. In the CMIP5 historical simulations, all but one model exhibit a weak downward trend [ranging from −0.1 to −1.8 Sverdrup (Sv) century−1; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1] over the twentieth century. Additionally, the multimodel ensemble–mean AMOC exhibits multidecadal variability with a ~60-yr periodicity and a peak-to-peak amplitude of ~1 Sv; all individual models project consistently onto this multidecadal mode. This multidecadal variability is significantly correlated with similar variations in the net surface shortwave radiative flux in the North Atlantic and with surface freshwater flux variations in the subpolar latitudes. Potential drivers for the twentieth-century multimodel AMOC variability, including external climate forcing and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the implication of these results on the North Atlantic SST variability are discussed.

Burzum shirts, paramilitarism and National Socialist Black Metal in the twenty-first century

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Hedge Olson
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
First Century ◽  
Political Life ◽  
Radical Right ◽  
Far Right ◽  
National Socialist ◽  
Black Metal ◽  
The North ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Underground Music

Over the last ten years, the radical right has proliferated at an alarming rate in the United States. National Socialist Black Metal (NSBM) has become an important feature of neo-Nazi, White supremacist and militant racist groups as the radical right as a whole has gained traction in American political life. Although rooted in underground music-based subculture, NSBM has become an important crypto-signifier for the radical right in the twenty-first century providing both symbolic value and ideological inspiration. The anti-racist and apolitical elements of the North American metal scene have responded in a variety of different ways, sometimes challenging racist elements directly, at other times providing ambivalent acceptance of the far right within the scene. While fans, musicians, journalists and record labels struggle to come to terms with the meaning of NSBM and how it should be addressed, NSBM-affiliated political and paramilitary groups have formed and started making their violent fantasies a reality. As many elements within the American metal scene continue to perceive NSBM as a purely artistic movement of no concern to the world outside of the metal scene, proponents of NSBM are marching in the streets of Charlottesville, burning African American churches, murdering LGBTQ people and plotting acts of domestic terrorism.

scholarly journals An Analysis of the Effect of Global Warming on the Intensity of Atlantic Hurricanes Using a GCM with Statistical Refinement

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (23) ◽  
pp. 6382-6393 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming Zhao ◽  
Isaac M. Held
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
First Century ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
The North ◽  
Intensity Changes ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Sst Warming ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Atlantic Hurricanes

Abstract A statistical intensity adjustment is utilized to extract information from tropical cyclone simulations in a 50-km-resolution global model. A simple adjustment based on the modeled and observed probability distribution of storm lifetime maximum wind speed allows the model to capture the differences between observed intensity distributions in active/inactive year composites from the 1981–2008 period in the North Atlantic. This intensity adjustment is then used to examine the atmospheric model’s responses to different sea surface temperature anomalies generated by coupled models for the late twenty-first century. In the North Atlantic all simulations produce a reduction in the total number of cyclones, but with large intermodel spread in the magnitude of the reduction. The intensity response is positively correlated with changes in frequency across the ensemble. However, there is, on average, an increase in intensity in these simulations despite the mean reduction in frequency. The authors argue that it is useful to decompose these intensity changes into two parts: an increase in intensity that is intrinsic to the climate change experiments and a change in intensity positively correlated with frequency, just as in the active/inactive historical composites. By isolating the intrinsic component, which is relatively independent of the details of the SST warming pattern, an increase is found in storm-lifetime maximum winds of 5–10 m s−1 for storms with intensities of 30–60 m s−1, by the end of the twenty-first century. The effects of change in frequency, which are dependent on the details of the spatial structure of the warming, must then be superimposed on this intrinsic change.

scholarly journals Ocean Warming Effect on Surface Gravity Wave Climate Change for the End of the Twenty-First Century

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (16) ◽  
pp. 6046-6066 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yalin Fan ◽  
Isaac M. Held ◽  
Shian-Jiann Lin ◽  
Xiaolan L. Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
First Century ◽  
The South ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract Surface wind (U10) and significant wave height (Hs) response to global warming are investigated using a coupled atmosphere–wave model by perturbing the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) with anomalies generated by the Working Group on Coupled Modeling (WGCM) phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) coupled models that use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4)/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B (SRES A1B) scenario late in the twenty-first century. Several consistent changes were observed across all four realizations for the seasonal means: robust increase of U10 and Hs in the Southern Ocean for both the austral summer and winter due to the poleward shift of the jet stream; a dipole pattern of the U10 and Hs with increases in the northeast sector and decreases at the midlatitude during boreal winter in the North Atlantic due to the more frequent occurrence of the positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); and strong decrease of U10 and Hs in the tropical western Pacific Ocean during austral summer, which might be caused by the joint effect of the weakening of the Walker circulation and the large hurricane frequency decrease in the South Pacific. Changes of the 99th percentile U10 and Hs are twice as strong as changes in the seasonal means, and the maximum changes are mainly dominated by the changes in hurricanes. Robust strong decreases of U10 and Hs in the South Pacific are obtained because of the large hurricane frequency decrease, while the results in the Northern Hemisphere basins differ among the models. An additional sensitivity experiment suggests that the qualitative response of U10 and Hs is not affected by using SST anomalies only and maintaining the radiative forcing unchanged (using 1980 values), as in this study.

Amorium 1987: A Preliminary Survey

1988 ◽  
Vol 38 ◽  
pp. 175-184 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. M. Harrison
Keyword(s):  
First Century ◽  
Preliminary Survey ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
South West ◽  
Ancient Site ◽  
The Town

Amorium is in eastern Phrygia, 170 km. south-west of Ankara, 70 km. north-east of Afyon, 12 km. east of the town of Emirdaǧ, and near the source of the Sakarya (Sangarius) (Fig. 1). It lies on the north-facing lower slopes of the mountains of Emirdaǧ (the Turkish town, previously called Aziziye, has the same name), and the ancient site of Amorium lies within the relatively recent village of Hisarköy. The mountain of Emirdaǧ gives rise to various streams which flow into a tributary of the Sakarya, and at Amorium the view to the north extends over some 50 km., showing, in the middle distance, the tree-lined course of the river, and the mountains of Sivrihisar beyond. The ancient town (which includes a large prehistoric hüyük) was mentioned by Strabo, and indeed the name of Amorium appeared earlier on coins, in the second or first century B.C. The site was rediscovered by W. J. Hamilton in 1836.

Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations

2010 ◽  
Vol 368 (1931) ◽  
pp. 5173-5184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily Black ◽  
David J. Brayshaw ◽  
Claire M. C. Rambeau
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
First Century ◽  
Southern Europe ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
The North ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Twenty First Century

Anthropogenic changes in precipitation pose a serious threat to society—particularly in regions such as the Middle East that already face serious water shortages. However, climate model projections of regional precipitation remain highly uncertain. Moreover, standard resolution climate models have particular difficulty representing precipitation in the Middle East, which is modulated by complex topography, inland water bodies and proximity to the Mediterranean Sea. Here we compare precipitation changes over the twenty-first century against both millennial variability during the Holocene and interannual variability in the present day. In order to assess the climate model and to make consistent comparisons, this study uses new regional climate model simulations of the past, present and future in conjunction with proxy and historical observations. We show that the pattern of precipitation change within Europe and the Middle East projected by the end of the twenty-first century has some similarities to that which occurred during the Holocene. In both cases, a poleward shift of the North Atlantic storm track and a weakening of the Mediterranean storm track appear to cause decreased winter rainfall in southern Europe and the Middle East and increased rainfall further north. In contrast, on an interannual time scale, anomalously dry seasons in the Middle East are associated with a strengthening and focusing of the storm track in the north Mediterranean and hence wet conditions throughout southern Europe.

Introduction

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Joseph P. Reidy
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Black Americans ◽  
First Century ◽  
The South ◽  
The North ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Complex Relationships ◽  
The Many

The book explores the complex ways that slavery ended over the course of the Civil War, focusing particularly on the actions and experiences of black Americans, both enslaved and free in the North as well as the South. It emphasizes the elusive nature of freedom and the many obstacles in its winding path. Time moved erratically, and even space took on unforeseeably new characteristics in the turmoil of war. At bottom, the emancipation struggle involved a contest over the complex relationships that linked individuals to families, neighborhoods, and ultimately the nation, the resolution of which had implications that reached far beyond enslaved people and enslavers. The Union's victory over the Confederacy and the ratification of the Thirteenth Amendment ended slavery, but its baleful effects have hung like a cloud over succeeding generations right into the twenty-first century.

30.—Weather Routing of Ships on the North Atlantic.

1972 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. 311-320
Author(s):  
R. F. Zobel
Keyword(s):  
Fifteenth Century ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Fourth Century ◽  
First Century ◽  
Ship Routing ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Electronic Computers ◽  
Meteorological Observations

Modern ship routing is a matter for specialist forecasters using a mass of meteorological observations processed by large, high-speed electronic computers, as will appear below.Historically, some form of routing has been practised for centuries as the result of observations made by navigators and explorers as they gradually laid bare the geography of the earth's oceans and continents.It cannot be known whether the very early navigators followed routes based on weather considerations, but they may have done so in limited areas of the globe. There is some reason to suppose that the Atlantic islands and even perhaps the West Indies were known to the Phoenicians. Legends which suggest this are supported by the finding of a stock of fourth century b.c. Phoenician coins at Corvo in the Azores. It has been reasonably supposed in some quarters that these coins were from a Phoenician trader wrecked on the island whilst on passage westwards, but how far west we cannot be sure.It has never been seriously doubted that the north-east coast of America was discovered and temporarily colonised by Vikings from Greenland during the latter part of the first century A.D. Certain archaeological finds have been held by some to support this view. An account of some early pioneering voyages has been given by Villiers (1956).These early voyages can hardly have been consciously weather routed, though some knowledge of the prevailing wind conditions may well have been acquired. Perhaps it was as late as the end of the fifteenth century that the first known weather-routed voyage was made. Henry the Navigator (Prince Henry of Portugal) was intent on finding a way round the Cape into the Indian Ocean in order to oust the Venetians and Arabs from their lucrative trading in that area. He fitted out expedition after expedition, but they all turned back as they hugged the African coast and were caught in the doldrums. Eventually they learned to stand well out to sea and so get the benefit of the N.E. trades and in 1434 they reached the equator. However, it was another half-century before the Cape was reached and this could conceivably be regarded as the first weather-routed voyage.

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