Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century

Atlantic hurricanes are a major hazard to life and property, and a topic of intense scientific interest. Historical changes in observing practices limit the utility of century-scale records of Atlantic major hurricane frequency. To evaluate past changes in frequency, we have here developed a homogenization method for Atlantic hurricane and major hurricane frequency over 1851–2019. We find that recorded century-scale increases in Atlantic hurricane and major hurricane frequency, and associated decrease in USA hurricanes strike fraction, are consistent with changes in observing practices and not likely a true climate trend. After homogenization, increases in basin-wide hurricane and major hurricane activity since the 1970s are not part of a century-scale increase, but a recovery from a deep minimum in the 1960s–1980s. We suggest internal (e.g., Atlantic multidecadal) climate variability and aerosol-induced mid-to-late-20th century major hurricane frequency reductions have probably masked century-scale greenhouse-gas warming contributions to North Atlantic major hurricane frequency.

Tropical Cyclone Center Positioning Using Single Channel Microwave Satellite Observations of Brightness Temperature

Satellite observations of brightness temperature from the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) and Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) humidity sounding channels can provide relatively high horizontal resolution information about cloud and atmospheric moisture in the troposphere, thus revealing the structures of tropical cyclones (TCs). There is usually a high brightness temperature in a TC eye region and low brightness temperature reflecting spiral rain bands. An azimuthal spectral analysis method is used as a center-fixing algorithm to determine the TC center objectively using the brightness temperature observations of the ATMS humidity-sounding channel 18 (183.31 ± 7.0 GHz) and MHS humidity-sounding channel 5 (190.31 GHz). The position in the brightness temperature field encompassing a TC that achieves the largest symmetric component is regarded as the TC center. Two Atlantic hurricanes in 2012, Hurricanes Sandy and Isaac, are first used to analyze the performance of the TC center-fixing technique. Compared with the National Hurricane Center best track, the root-mean-square differences of the center fixing results for Hurricanes Sandy and Isaac are less than 47.3 and 34.3 km, respectively. It is found that the uncertainty of the TC center-fixing algorithm and thus the difference from the best track increases when the brightness temperature distribution within a TC is significantly asymmetric. Then, the TC center-fixing technique is validated for all tropical storms and hurricanes over Northern Atlantic and Western Pacific in 2019. Compared with the best track data, the root-mean-square differences for tropical storms and hurricanes are 33.81 and 26.20 km, respectively. The demonstrated successful performance of the proposed TC center-fixing algorithm to use the single channel of microwave humidity sounders for TC positioning is important for vortex initialization in operational hurricane forecasts.

Ocean Conditions and the Intensification of three Major Atlantic Hurricanes in 2017

Major Atlantic hurricanes Irma, Jose, and Maria of 2017 reached their peak intensity in September while traveling over the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, where both atmospheric and ocean conditions were favorable for intensification. In-situ and satellite ocean observations revealed that conditions in these areas exhibited: (i) sea surface temperatures above 28°C; (ii) upper-ocean heat content above 60 kJ cm-2; and (iii) the presence of low-salinity barrier layers associated with a larger-than-usual extension of the Amazon and Orinoco riverine plumes. Proof-of-concept coupled ocean-hurricane numerical model experiments demonstrated that the accurate representation of such ocean conditions led to an improvement in the simulated intensity of Hurricane Maria for the 3 days preceding landfall in Puerto Rico, when compared to an experiment without the assimilation of ocean observations. Without the assimilation of ocean observations, upper-ocean thermal conditions were generally colder than observations, resulting in reduced air-sea enthalpy fluxes - enthalpy fluxes are more realistically simulated when the upper-ocean temperature and salinity structure is better represented in the model. Our results further showed that different components of the ocean observing system provide valuable information in support of improved TC simulations, and that assimilation of underwater glider observations alone provided the largest improvement of the total improvement over the 24-hour time frame before landfall. Our results therefore indicated that ocean conditions were relevant for more realistically simulating Hurricane Maria’s intensity. However, further research based on a comprehensive set of hurricane cases is required to confirm robust improvements to forecast systems.

Changes in Atlantic Major Hurricane Frequency Since the Late-19th Century

Atlantic hurricanes are a major hazard to life and property1,2,3, and a topic of intense scientific interest4,5,6. Historical changes in observing practices limit the utility of century-scale records of Atlantic major hurricane frequency7-13. To evaluate past changes in frequency, we have here developed a homogenization method for Atlantic hurricane and major hurricane frequency over 1851-2019. We find that recorded century-scale increases in Atlantic hurricane and major hurricane frequency, and associated decrease in USA hurricanes strike fraction, are consistent with changes in observing practices and not likely a true climate trend. After homogenization, increases in basin-wide hurricane and major hurricane activity since the 1970s14-15 are not part of a century-scale increase, but a recovery from a deep minimum in the 1960s-1980s. These results support the notion that internal climate variability and aerosol-induced mid-to-late-20th century major hurricane frequency reductions16-24 have probably masked century-scale greenhouse-gas warming contributions to North Atlantic major hurricane frequency.

Investigating the Impact of High-Resolution Land–Sea Masks on Hurricane Forecasts in HWRF

Realistic wind information is critical for accurate forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. In order to provide more realistic near-surface wind forecasts of hurricanes over coastal regions, high-resolution land–sea masks are considered. As a leading hurricane modeling system, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Hurricane Weather Research Forecast (HWRF) system has been widely used in both operational and research environments for studying hurricanes in different basins. In this study, high-resolution land–sea mask datasets are introduced to the nested domain of HWRF, for the first time, as an attempt to improve hurricane wind forecasts. Four destructive North Atlantic hurricanes (Harvey and Irma in 2017; and Florence and Michael in 2018), which brought historic wind damage and storm surge along the Eastern Seaboard of the United States and Northeastern Gulf Coast, were selected to demonstrate the methodology of extending the capability to HWRF, due to the introduction of the high-resolution land–sea masks into the nested domains for the first time. A preliminary assessment of the numerical experiments with HWRF shows that the introduction of high-resolution land–sea masks into the nested domains produce significantly more accurate definitions of coastlines, land-use, and soil types. Furthermore, the high-resolution land–sea mask not only improves the quality of simulated wind information along the coast, but also improves the hurricane track, intensity, and storm-size predictions.

Mitigating the Twin Threats of Climate-Driven Atlantic Hurricanes and COVID-19 Transmission

ABSTRACTThe co-occurrence of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season and the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic creates complex dilemmas for protecting populations from these intersecting threats. Climate change is likely contributing to stronger, wetter, slower-moving, and more dangerous hurricanes. Climate-driven hazards underscore the imperative for timely warning, evacuation, and sheltering of storm-threatened populations – proven life-saving protective measures that gather evacuees together inside durable, enclosed spaces when a hurricane approaches. Meanwhile, the rapid acquisition of scientific knowledge regarding how COVID-19 spreads has guided mass anti-contagion strategies, including lockdowns, sheltering at home, physical distancing, donning personal protective equipment, conscientious handwashing, and hygiene practices. These life-saving strategies, credited with preventing millions of COVID-19 cases, separate and move people apart. Enforcement coupled with fear of contracting COVID-19 have motivated high levels of adherence to these stringent regulations. How will populations react when warned to shelter from an oncoming Atlantic hurricane while COVID-19 is actively circulating in the community? Emergency managers, health care providers, and public health preparedness professionals must create viable solutions to confront these potential scenarios: elevated rates of hurricane-related injury and mortality among persons who refuse to evacuate due to fear of COVID-19, and the resurgence of COVID-19 cases among hurricane evacuees who shelter together.