Quantifying Uncertainties in Climate Change Projection and Its Impact on Water Availability in the Thuli Bheri River Basin, Nepal

2021 ◽  
pp. 235-251
Author(s):  
Anil Aryal ◽  
Manisha Maharjan ◽  
Rocky Talchabhadel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Climate Change Projection

scholarly journals Assessment of the impact of climate change on the freshwater availability of Kaduna River basin, Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gloria C. Okafor ◽  
Kingsley N. Ogbu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in runoff trends have caused severe water shortages and ecological problems in agriculture and human well-being in Nigeria. Understanding the long-term (inter-annual to decadal) variations of water availability in river basins is paramount for water resources management and climate change adaptation. Climate change in Northern Nigeria could lead to change of the hydrological cycle and water availability. Moreover, the linkage between climatic changes and streamflow fluctuations is poorly documented in this area. Therefore, this study examined temporal trends in rainfall, temperature and runoff records of Kaduna River basin. Using appropriate statistical tools and participatory survey, trends in streamflow and their linkages with the climate indices were explored to determine their amplifying impacts on water availability and impacts on livelihoods downstream the basin. Analysis indicate variable rainfall trend with significant wet and dry periods. Unlike rainfall, temperature showed annual and seasonal scale statistically increasing trend. Runoff exhibit increasing tendency but only statistically significant on annual scale as investigated with Mann–Kendall trend test. Sen’s estimator values stood in agreement with Mann–Kendall test for all variables. Kendall tau and partial correlation results revealed the influence of climatic variables on runoff. Based on the survey, some of the hydrological implications and current water stress conditions of these fluctuations for the downstream inhabitants were itemized. With increasing risk of climate change and demand for water, we therefore recommend developing adaptive measures in seasonal regime of water availability and future work on modelling of the diverse hydrological characteristics of the entire basin.

scholarly journals Climate change projection of snowfall in the Colorado River Basin using dynamical downscaling

2012 ◽  
Vol 48 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sungwook Wi ◽  
Francina Dominguez ◽  
Matej Durcik ◽  
Juan Valdes ◽  
Henry F. Diaz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Colorado River Basin ◽  
Climate Change Projection

Impact of climate change on water availability in the Macquarie-Castlereagh River Basin in Australia

2011 ◽  
Vol 25 (16) ◽  
pp. 2597-2612 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Vaze ◽  
A. Davidson ◽  
J. Teng ◽  
G. Podger
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change

scholarly journals Assessment of impacts of climate change on surface water availability using coupled SWAT and WEAP models: case of upper Pangani River Basin, Tanzania

2018 ◽  
Vol 378 ◽  
pp. 23-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Kishiwa ◽  
Joel Nobert ◽  
Victor Kongo ◽  
Preksedis Ndomba
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Peak Flows ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This study was designed to investigate the dynamics of current and future surface water availability for different water users in the upper Pangani River Basin under changing climate. A multi-tier modeling technique was used in the study, by coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) models, to simulate streamflows under climate change and assess scenarios of future water availability to different socio-economic activities by year 2060. Six common Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from WCRP-CMIP3 with emissions Scenario A2 were selected. These are HadCM3, HadGEM1, ECHAM5, MIROC3.2MED, GFDLCM2.1 and CSIROMK3. They were downscaled by using LARS-WG to station scale. The SWAT model was calibrated with observed data and utilized the LARS-WG outputs to generate future streamflows before being used as input to WEAP model to assess future water availability to different socio-economic activities. GCMs results show future rainfall increase in upper Pangani River Basin between 16–18 % in 2050s relative to 1980–1999 periods. Temperature is projected to increase by an average of 2 ∘C in 2050s, relative to baseline period. Long-term mean streamflows is expected to increase by approximately 10 %. However, future peak flows are estimated to be lower than the prevailing average peak flows. Nevertheless, the overall annual water demand in Pangani basin will increase from 1879.73 Mm3 at present (2011) to 3249.69 Mm3 in the future (2060s), resulting to unmet demand of 1673.8 Mm3 (51.5 %). The impact of future shortage will be more severe in irrigation where 71.12 % of its future demand will be unmet. Future water demands of Hydropower and Livestock will be unmet by 27.47 and 1.41 % respectively. However, future domestic water use will have no shortage. This calls for planning of current and future surface water use in the upper Pangani River Basin.

scholarly journals Long-Term Variability in Potential Evapotranspiration, Water Availability and Drought under Climate Change Scenarios in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 883 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahtsente Tadese ◽  
Lalit Kumar ◽  
Richard Koech
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Awash River Basin ◽  
Mitigate Climate Change

Understanding the hydrological processes of a watershed in response to climate change is vital to the establishment of sustainable environmental management strategies. This study aimed to evaluate the variability of potential evapotranspiration (PET) and water availability in the Awash River Basin (ARB) under different climate change scenarios and to relate these with long-term drought occurrences in the area. The PET and water availability of the ARB was estimated during the period of 1995–2009 and two future scenarios (2050s and 2070s). The representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) simulations showed an increase in the monthly mean PET from March to August in the 2050s, and all the months in the 2070s. The study also identified a shortage of net water availability in the majority of the months investigated and the occurrence of mild to extreme drought in about 40–50% of the analysed years at the three study locations (Holetta, Koka Dam, and Metehara). The decrease in water availability and an increase in PET, combined with population growth, will aggravate the drought occurrence and food insecurity in the ARB. Therefore, integrated watershed management systems and rehabilitation of forests, as well as water bodies, should be addressed in the ARB to mitigate climate change and water shortage in the area.

scholarly journals Assessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 29 ◽  
pp. 107-121
Author(s):  
Priscila Esposte Coutinho ◽  
Marcio Cataldi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Human Consumption ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Sao Francisco River ◽  
São Francisco River ◽  
The Impact

In the last century, changes in climate trends have been observed around the planet, which have resulted in alterations in the hydrological cycle. Studies that take into account the impact of climate change on water availability are of great importance, especially in Brazil’s case, where water from rivers, beyond being destined for human consumption, animal watering and economic activities, has a great participation in electricity generation. This fact makes its energy matrix vulnerable to variations in the climate system. In this study, a flow analysis for the head of the São Francisco river basin was performed between 2010 and 2100, considering the precipitation data of the CCSM4 climate model presented in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Projections of future flow were performed for the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, based on the SMAP rain-flow model, followed by a comparative analysis with the present climate. In general, we can observe that the decades of 2010 to 2100 will be marked by the high levels of precipitation, interspersed by long droughts, in which the recorded flow will be lower than the Long Term Average (LTA) calculated for the basin. Therefore, new management strategies must be considered to maintain the multiple uses of the basin.

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